An Evaluation of Legacy from the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games: Pre-Games Report

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First published by The Scottish Government, April 2014
ISBN: 978-1-78412-411-3 (web only)
ISSN: 20456964

E-book in EPUB format first published by The Scottish Government, April 2014
ISBN: 978-1-78412-412-0 (EPUB)

E-book in MOBI format first published by The Scottish Government, April 2014
ISBN: 978-1-78412-413-7 (MOBI)

The Scottish Government
St Andrew’s House
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Produced for The Scottish Government by APS Group Scotland DPPAS28195 (04/14)

Published by The Scottish Government, April 2014

Contents

Executive Summary

1. Introduction and Background
Introduction
Legacy
Key developments

2. Aims, Key Questions and Methods
Introduction
Aims and key questions
Methods

3. Flourishing
The Evidence: What do we know?
Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes
What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline
Prospective Assessment and Summary

4. Sustainable
The Evidence: What do we know?
Glasgow 2014 Legacy and Investment Programmes
What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline
Prospective Assessment: what does the evidence suggest?

5. Active
The Evidence: What do we know?
Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes
What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline
Prospective Assessment and Summary

6. Connected
The Evidence: What do we know?
Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes
What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline
Prospective Assessment and Summary

7. Discussion and Prospective Assessment
Flourishing
Sustainable
Active
Connected
In summary

8. Annex 1: Indicator sets

9. Annex 2: Outcome Indictor Data 2008-Latest

Executive Summary

Introduction

- Glasgow will host the 2014 Commonwealth Games from 23 July to 3 August 2014. It will be the biggest multi-sport event that Scotland has hosted in a generation. Approximately 6,500 athletes and team officials from 71 nations and territories will take part in 17 sports. Five sports will run 22 Para-Sport medal events.

- Glasgow 2014 and partners are on track to deliver the Games on time and budget. Commercial sponsorship has progressed well, charitable partners are in place, almost all of the publicly available tickets have been sold and up to 15,000 volunteer 'clyde-siders' are now being trained.

- Since the bidding phase there has also been an emphasis on the positive and lasting benefits that could be achieved for both Scotland and Glasgow. These benefits are often collectively described as the 'legacy'.

- The evidence suggests that while hosting major sporting events are not in themselves a solution to the economic and social problems of cities or regions, successful legacy is possible if it is well planned, well delivered and embedded in existing policies and programmes. Legacy has been purposefully planned for by partners in Scotland and Glasgow since 2009.

- The Scottish Government (SG) and partners are committed to a transparent and long term evaluation of legacy – to generate learning for Parliament, Games partners, future bidders and hosts, and to add significantly to the evidence base internationally on major sporting events and legacy. These findings have already been extensively used by SG and partners for legacy planning.

Flourishing

- The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games will make a short-term contribution to the Scottish economy. We estimate that construction and refurbishment spend on Games venues and the Athletes' Village over the six years leading to 2014 will support on average around 1,000 jobs and contribute £52 million to Scotland's GVA in each year.

- We also expect the Games to have an impact on the hospitality and tourism sectors in 2014. For each £100 million of additional tourism spend in 2014, around 1,300 FTE jobs will be supported and it will contribute £45 million to Scottish GVA. We have commissioned a Visitor Impact Study at Games-time to measure visitor spend.

- A key legacy aspiration from Games-related economic activity is to reach young people and the long-term unemployed. Evidence suggests that, if effectively targeted, Games-related employment and training opportunities can achieve this reach. In sum, there are potentially up to 5,000 opportunities available through national training and employability legacy programmes and further opportunities have been secured in Glasgow. Glasgow City Council has also included Community Benefit Clauses in Games-related contracts creating opportunities for local people and businesses.

- There may be particular scope for growing the events industry by using the Games infrastructure and the developing skills base (paid and voluntary). Partners aim to use the newly-constructed and refurbished venues and the 17 competition sports to attract high-profile sporting events. To date, 37 national and international events have been secured both before and after the Games, with an estimated economic impact of over £14 million.

- Interest in the volunteer opportunities for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is high. There were up to 50,000 applications to the Glasgow 2014 Volunteer programme and 15,000 clyde-siders have been recruited. Data suggests that most applicants have recent experience of volunteering in a formal capacity, with over a third volunteering in a sporting capacity in the last 12 months. In complement, the Host City Volunteer Programme, one of Glasgow's 80 legacy projects, is recruiting up to 1,500 people from communities in Glasgow who may face barriers to volunteering.

- The evidence for long term economic legacy is limited. What we do know is that it depends upon a step change to economic participation, productivity or international reputation. SG and partners recognise this and are working to ensure employment, training and volunteering opportunities are targeting young people and the long-term unemployed. Given the evidence, we anticipate that Scotland's international reputation will be enhanced by hosting a successful Games.

Sustainable

- The evidence suggests that major sporting events can accelerate and extend regeneration plans, acting as catalysts for socio-economic development. However, these need to be linked to wider, longer-term plans and have community engagement at their heart.

- There are already signs that the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games are having an impact on the physical and social environment in the area in the East End of Glasgow where much of the Games investment – and crucially – the longer-term, community-led regeneration is happening.

- The initial £100 million spending in Glasgow and South Lanarkshire by Clyde Gateway URC to help create a regenerated, well-designed and sustainable community in the East End of Glasgow over the six year to the Games is estimated to support on average around 200 jobs and contribute £10 million to Scotland's GVA in each year.

- Increases in the levels of remediated land, a decrease in vacant and derelict land, creation of green space and construction of business space are already evident. Almost half of respondents in the baseline GoWell East survey say their neighbourhood has improved over the past three years. Results also suggest that residents have a relatively strong sense of being able to influence decisions in the local area.

- The 'host' community appear to have benefitted from local employment and training opportunities pre-Games. The GoWell East baseline survey found that 7% of working age respondents had undertaken paid employment related to the construction or operation of the new Games facilities or related improvement projects in the period 2011-12. Furthermore, just over 15% of identified their recent or current training, apprenticeship or work experience to be associated with a Games or regeneration project in the area over the same period.

Active

- Scotland has experienced broadly stable levels of sports participation and physical activity in the adult and child population since 2008. Scotland's experience is typical among middle and high income countries.

- Evidence suggests that simply hosting a major sporting event does not, in and of itself, lead to automatic population shifts in physical activity. Nonetheless, increases in sports participation amongst certain groups, and under certain conditions, may be plausible due to the Games (the demonstration effect).

- Frequency of sports participation has increased in Scotland among sports participants over the last five years and this trend may be accelerated if a demonstration effect is at play. We are planning new analysis to test the hypothesis of a link between major events and sports participation.

- However, a population shift is unlikely without genuine efforts to embed legacy aspirations into long-term policies. Understanding this, the Scottish Government and partners launched a new Physical Activity Implementation Plan in February 2014 entitled 'A More Active Scotland: Building a Legacy from the Commonwealth Games'. This Plan builds on the 2009 Legacy Strategy and on the internationally renowned Toronto Charter.

- The evidence highlights the 'white elephant' phenomenon – essentially insufficient long-term planning for use of Games infrastructure as a risk. The proportion of new build sporting venues for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games has been less than for other major sporting events, with 70% of venues already in place at the time of bidding. All new and refurbished facilities are already open to the public, schools, clubs and sports bodies for use in advance of the Games. 41.9% of GoWell East survey respondents said they intend to use new or improved sports facilities in their area linked to the Commonwealth Games. This bodes well for sustained use of Games infrastructure.

- Data suggest an enhancement of the sports infrastructure in Scotland since 2008. The numbers of people employed in the sports and leisure sector has increased; levels of volunteering in sports are stable and there has been an increase in the number of UKCC qualified coaches. Furthermore, the number of Community Sport Hubs are increasing, as is attendance at, and levels of user satisfaction with, local authority leisure facilities.

Connected

- There is limited evidence to help us assess what the long term impact of hosting a major event and its related festivals may be on cultural engagement and the culture sector. It is plausible that widening the range of opportunities helps engage those not interested in sport. Previous major sporting events have seen almost an equal number of people participate in the cultural events as the sporting events (at London 2012 there were more participants at cultural events).

- Although Scotland already has well known international strengths in culture and festivals, there is some evidence that the scale and reach of cultural programmes associated with major Games can lead to development of the cultural and wider creative industries sector. New partnerships at strategic and project level, for example, can sustain beyond events. The planned evaluation of the Culture and Festival 2014 programme will explore this in more detail.

- Although it is common for major sporting events to have linked educational and learning programmes that can demonstrate "reach", there is little available evidence of their long-term impact. The evaluation of Game On Scotland will add to the relatively weak evidence base in this area.

In summary

- Given the long-term and explicit legacy planning for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and the evidence from previous major sporting events, legacy looks possible in a number of areas. These include the regeneration of the East End of Glasgow, an economic boost in the construction, tourism and hospitality sectors and an enhancement of international reputation.

- For other areas, particularly around population level sport and physical activity, achieving legacy outcomes looks more challenging. SG and partners recognise that the Games may act more as a 'catalyst' for broader strategies, rather than have an effect in and of themselves. To address this, a new ten year Physical Activity Implementation Plan was launched in February 2014.

- A concerted effort to maintain focus and momentum and embed the aspirations and outcomes into long term strategies will be critical in achieving many legacy outcomes. SG and partners are now working on long term, evidence based, legacy planning to ensure this momentum is sustained post-Games.

- We will continue to monitor and evaluate Games Legacy in Scotland until 2019. The next report will be published in autumn 2015.

1. Introduction and Background

Introduction

1.1 Glasgow will host the XXth Commonwealth Games from 23 July to 3 August 2014. It will be the biggest multi-sport event that Scotland has hosted in a generation. Approximately 6,500 athletes and team officials from 71 nations and territories will take part in 17 sports. Five sports will run 22 Para-Sport medal events, the highest number of events to date at a Commonwealth Games.

1.2 Scotland is also hosting The Ryder Cup in Gleneagles in September 2014 for a second time in the tournament's history. Further, Homecoming[1] is a full year of celebration across Scotland, coinciding with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn.

1.3 Glasgow won the bid to host the Commonwealth Games in 2007. A partnership of the Scottish Government (SG), Glasgow City Council (GCC), Commonwealth Games Scotland (CGS) and the Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee (Glasgow 2014) continues to underpin the planning and delivery of the Games.

1.4 Glasgow 2014 and Partners is on track to deliver the Games at a cost of £485 million, with an additional security budget of £90 million. The SG is to provide up to £382 million, GCC around £80 million, and Glasgow 2014 is meeting the balance through income from sponsorship, ticket sales, merchandising and broadcasting rights. Commercial sponsorship has progressed well and charitable partners are in place.

1.5 Over 2.3 million applications were received for approximately one million tickets during the first Glasgow 2014 application window, with many sports selling out in the first phase. At the time of writing, 94% of publicly available tickets are sold. Two-thirds of tickets are priced £25 or under.

1.6 Glasgow 2014 has recruited around 15,000 volunteers – known as clyde-siders – to support the Games. Up to 50,000 applications were received for the roles from all over the UK and beyond.

Legacy

1.7 Since the bidding phase there has also been an emphasis on the positive and lasting benefits that could be achieved for both Scotland and Glasgow. These benefits are often collectively described as the 'legacy'.

1.8 In 2009, the Scottish Government and national partners developed a Scotland-wide Games legacy plan setting out their collective ambitions for achieving a lasting legacy for Scotland. This covers a ten-year period to 2019 and is set around four national themes: Flourishing, Active, Connected and Sustainable.

Flourishing – using the Games to contribute to the growth of the Scottish economy.

Active – using the Games to help Scots be more physically active.

Connected – using the Games to strengthen connections at home and internationally through culture and learning.

Sustainable – using the Games to demonstrate environmental responsibility and help communities live more sustainably.

1.9 The overarching aim is to leverage the maximum possible social and economic benefit from the Games investment to help achieve those outcomes. The Scottish Government and partners have developed an 'outcomes map' for the Games. This sets out the outcomes and intermediate outcomes that partners hope to achieve through the Games.

1.10 This is underpinned by over 50 national legacy programmes led by Games Partners and other national and local organisations. The outcomes map and information on the national legacy programmes are at:

www.scotland.gov.uk/AssessingLegacy2014. Some summary information on the national legacy programmes is presented in this report.

1.11 The legacy programmes include both the scaling up and/or expansion of existing policies and programmes, alongside some new programmes specifically developed and launched for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. Some policy areas in Scotland have used the Games as a 'catalyst', or 'mobiliser' for policy aims that were being pursued.

1.12 The City of Glasgow has also identified 6 legacy themes which broadly fit with the four national themes above. These are; Prosperous, Active, Inclusive, Accessible, Green and International. More detailed information on Glasgow's legacy plans is available at: http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/AboutGlasgow/AGamesLegacyForGlasgow.

1.13 From the outset there has also been an explicit aim to ensure Games legacy has a national reach. Local authorities across Scotland are also planning for the Games and legacy. In late 2012, through the SOLACE[2] Scotland network, each local authority identified a senior officer within the authority to lead on all aspects of legacy activity for 2014. A national officer network has been established, administered by SOLACE with support from SG bringing together each of the 2014 Local Authority Legacy Lead Officers from all of the 32 local authorities.

1.14 Finally, Glasgow 2014 has a Legacy Team embedded in its structure. This is the first time this has happened for a Commonwealth Games. Their role has been to foster a 'legacy consciousness' in the organisation and to work with partners to take forward legacy objectives.

Key developments

1.15 GCC, with the support of SG and partner agencies, delivered the Games venues and supporting infrastructure in Glasgow. Approximately 70% of venues were already in place at the time of the bid and they have now been joined by several new world-class facilities. Details of venues are at: http://www.glasgow2014.com/games/venues

1.16 The Co-ordination Commission (CoCom) of the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF)[3] recently stated that progress on venues was impressive, giving them 'significant confidence' in the ability of Glasgow to deliver a successful Games.

1.17 Improvements have also been made to the transport infrastructure in the Glasgow area. There were already plans for many of these improvements, but the securing of the Games helped ensure their completion at high specification and pace. It is hoped that Games-related transport projects will reduce journey times and provide sustainable public transport in advance of the Games, for Games-time and in the future.

1.18 The physical landscape in parts of Glasgow is changing with the building and refurbishment work to support the Games. Notably, there has been new investment for the Games in Glasgow's East End, in some of the most deprived communities in Scotland. The Games investment has become integral to plans for a wider, long-term regeneration initiative being led by the Clyde Gateway Urban Regeneration Company (URC).

1.19 In addition to new sporting venues, the Athletes' Village is complete and will be adapted to provide 700 homes (300 for private sale and 400 homes for social rent) and a 120 bed Social Work care home for the elderly. The village has been built using the highest environmental standards. Construction of the community-owned Dalmarnock Legacy Hub, a new social recreational and educational centre, has commenced next to the Emirates Arena, and the upgraded Dalmarnock station has officially re-opened.

1.20 There has been increasing emphasis on cultural programming for major sporting events internationally in recent years, and indeed it is a requirement of the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF). The Glasgow 2014 Cultural Programme is underway and comprises two elements: a Scotland wide programme called Culture 2014 and a Games-time celebration in Glasgow called Festival 2014. More information can be found at: http://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/glasgow-commonwealth-games-2014/culture-2014-and-festival-2014

1.21 Finally, at the time of writing, the Queen's Baton Relay (QBR) is underway, journeying across the 71 nations and territories with coverage on the BBC[4]. The QBR is providing an opportunity to showcase Glasgow and Scotland through business, culture and Ministerial events. The QBR will arrive back in Scotland on 14 June 2014.

2. Aims, Key Questions and Methods

Introduction

2.1 The SG, GCC and partners are committed to assessing progress on legacy. The Games Legacy Evaluation Working Group (GLEWG) was established in January 2012 to design and deliver an evaluation of legacy from the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games[5]. GLEWG agreed that an evaluation would be of value to Parliament, government and Games partners, as well as to future bidders and hosts. It will also add to the international evidence base on legacy from major sporting events.

2.2 To help finalise the evaluation questions and design we conducted a literature review on whether, and under what circumstances, major international multi-sport events create legacy. We also examined the methods used to measure and evaluate legacy plans and programmes. This updates a previous review conducted in 2012. A synthesis of the literature is presented in the evidence review published alongside this report[6]. Findings from this review appear throughout. These findings have also been used extensively by SG and partners in legacy planning.

2.3 Overall, the evidence on legacy from major sporting events varies in quality and rigour. However, it tells us that hosting major events can potentially create legacy, but it won't happen by chance. Successful legacies are well-planned, well-delivered and embedded in existing strategies, policies and programmes.

2.4 Early decisions made on the evaluation design were set out in our first report[7]. GLEWG concluded that a 'counterfactual' or 'control' was not feasible. By 'counterfactual' we mean what would have happened in the absence of the Games. Many legacy programmes are embedded in existing programmes. This makes the generation of a 'counterfactual' position challenging.

2.5 This, in turn, makes it difficult to attribute legacy outcomes to specific Games-related programmes. Rather, this evaluation has been designed (where relevant) to assess the contribution that programmes are likely to have made to outcomes. 'Contribution analysis'[8] can be used when it is not feasible to design an 'experiment', and where it is clear that multiple interventions might affect outcomes.

2.6 This decision on the counterfactual has implications for the whole evaluation, in particular for the economic assessment. It will not be possible to provide a single figure of economic impact. Rather, the economic assessment will provide a series of data that describes the economic contribution of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games.

2.7 Finally, this evaluation has been developed within constrained resources. A clear principle of proportionality underpins the design. We have made best use of existing data where possible and have added questions to existing surveys to help address the key questions. We have only supported new work where there is a clear gap that could not be filled in any other way.

Aims and key questions

2.8 At the outset the challenge posed for this evaluation was to assess the extent to which legacy outcomes have been achieved between 2008 and 2019. We are tracking indicators across all national themes and monitoring all national programmes. However, given both methodological challenges and the available resources, it was important to focus on some key questions.

2.9 After considering the evidence from major sporting events and consultation with the Games Legacy Executive Board (GLEB) the six key questions we agreed to ultimately address are:

1. What effect have the Games had on the economy, businesses, employment, training and volunteering? (theme - flourishing)

2. What effect have the Games had on the community in the area of Glasgow's East End most directly affected? (theme - sustainable)

3. What effect have the Games had on infrastructure, sports participation and physical activity? (theme - active)

4. What effect have the Games had on the cultural sector and cultural engagement?(theme - connected)

5. What effect have the Games had on civic pride and/or international reputation?(theme - flourishing and connected)

6. Is there a partnership legacy from the Games?

2.10 These questions vary in their relevance spatially. Some are relevant nationally, some at city level and some in Glasgow's East End where much of the new investment has been. Table 2.1 sets out in more detail the key questions, supplementary questions and the relevant spatial level.

2.11 A baseline of 2008 has been chosen as the 'before' year, with the years 2009-2019 the period when strategies and programmes are delivered.

2.12 There are also some questions we have posed, given some of the theoretical debate to date on hosting major sporting events. This includes questions about the 'demonstration' and 'festival' effects described in the literature on physical activity legacy (see Chapter 5). The evidence also suggests that partnership working can, in theory, expand and improve as a result of hosting a major sporting event. We plan to explore the impact of the Games on the nature and quality of partnership working in Scotland.

2.13 There may also be additional questions that Glasgow, as a host city, address directly, particularly on the impact of their legacy programmes. A Glasgow Evaluation Group (GEG) is addressing these.

2.14 There are many additional or alternative questions that could be asked. This evaluation cannot address them all. We hope research conducted by academia and the wider public sector in Scotland will add to the evidence base on legacy. To this end we have joint funded two PhD studentships with the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).

Methods

2.15 Our evaluation design comprises of seven key components. The first two components cover all the national themes and programmes. The remaining components are designed to address the evaluation questions set out above. We are undertaking, or supporting, the following:

1. Tracking over 50 outcome indicators from 2008-2019

2. Monitoring and evaluation of national legacy programmes in collaboration with partners

3. A new community longitudinal study (GoWell East) as part of the GoWell programme in Glasgow

4. An economic assessment

5. Secondary analysis of key national surveys

6. Online and social media monitoring

7. Primary research on partnership and collaboration

Tracking Outcome Indicators

2.16 A set of 52 outcome indicators are being tracked from a 2008 baseline to 2019 across all four national themes. These provide an important 'canvas' or 'backdrop' for the evaluation.

2.17 The selection of these indicators was based on four criteria, including: quality, regularity, disaggregation and relevance. The types of data used as indicators are statistical data, survey data and indices which provide a ranking.

2.18 We commissioned a 'Data Review in support of the Commonwealth Games Legacy evaluation' in 2013[9]. The review concluded that the current indicator set is close to optimal if we are using already available data and statistics. However, some gaps were identified including volunteering among young people and national data on civic pride.

2.19 Data are at Scottish, Glasgow, and East End level, where relevant data are available. By 'East End' we are referring to the area in Glasgow where there has been substantial investment due to the Games. A study area was defined which accords with the GCC East End Local Development Strategy. This is also the 'GoWell East' study area that we refer to in this report (see paragraph 2.32).

2.20 Changes in outcome indicators would theoretically be expected at different points in time. While we present baseline data from 2008 we would not expect to see a change in some of these indicators due to the Games at this point.

2.21 These indicators are described in Annex 1. The data now appear on a website entitled 'Assessing Legacy 2014' which is updated twice per year www.scotland.gov.uk/AssessingLegacy2014. The data are also set out in Annex 2.

Monitoring and Evaluation of National Legacy Programmes

2.22 There are currently over 50 national legacy programmes underway in Scotland. Some are completely new, some were existing programmes that have been scaled up, or expanded. Over 80 legacy programmes are underway in Glasgow. GCC and their partners will be reporting on these projects separately.

2.23 Evaluating every one of the national legacy programmes would be disproportionate to the Games investment. However, we are keen to champion evaluation of the larger programmes, particularly where they will help directly address the 6 key research questions.

2.24 Almost all of the national programmes are now providing monitoring data on a six monthly basis. The next update of Assessing Legacy 2014 will be in summer 2014.

2.25 The SG and a number of partners have plans to evaluate their legacy programmes. These broadly fall into two categories. Firstly, a relatively small number of legacy programmes have commissioned external evaluations. These tend to be the larger programmes and include Community Sport Hubs, Culture and Festival 2014 and Game on Scotland, the education programme for the Games.

2.26 Secondly, and more commonly, delivery organisations are expecting to self-evaluate. To help champion, and advise on, self-evaluation we have provided written guidance[10] to national legacy leads and to Local Authorities developing legacy plans. We also provide support through our knowledge hub where an information video is available.

Longitudinal Community Study in Glasgow's East End (GoWell East)

2.27 Our second question asks what effect the Games (and broader regeneration activity) has had on the lives of the community in Glasgow's East End where much of the new investment is directed. This is not something we can readily answer from existing data. We have supported a new study area on the GoWell programme and refer to it throughout this report as 'GoWell East'.

2.28 GoWell[11] is Glasgow-based research programme that provides evidence on the impact of regeneration. The study generates evidence on how neighbourhood regeneration and housing investment affect individual health and wellbeing; the degree to which places are transformed through regeneration and housing investment; and the effect of regeneration policy on area-based health and inequalities.

2.29 GoWell East is a longitudinal community study with several components: three survey sweeps; a qualitative component; and an ecological analysis of health and deprivation indicators. As far as we know, this is the first longitudinal community study in a Games 'host population'.

2.30 GoWell East will allow us to identify changes among a cohort of the adult population living in the East End. These include changes in physical activity and wellbeing, perceptions and experiences of neighbourhood and housing, experience and outcomes of employment, learning and volunteering, engagement with legacy programmes, and support for, and engagement with, the Games themselves.

2.31 In paragraph 2.4, we discussed the difficulties of generating a 'counterfactual'. A benefit of building on the GoWell programme is the scope for comparability with other regeneration areas in Glasgow. This helps address the question of 'additionality' of the Games-related regeneration if the effects are positive.

2.32 The study area covers 6 communities in Glasgow's East End – Calton, Camlachie, Gallowgate, Parkhead (in part), Dalmarnock, and Bridgeton. The study area comprises 27 datazones, 21 of which are in the 15% most deprived in Scotland[12]. The area includes the Emirates Stadium, the Velodrome and the Athletes' Village, with the International Hockey Centre and Tollcross International Swimming Centre on the fringes. The study area is below.

Figure 2.1: GoWell East study area

2.33 A total of 1,015 interviews have been achieved in Sweep 1. The headline findings from this sweep were published in May 2013[13]. Sweep 2 will commence after the Games when the Games venues have reopened to the public in 2014, and sweep 3 is scheduled for 2016.

2.34 In 2014 the GoWell Team will also be developing the ecological component of the study and conducting qualitative research. The ecological work uses secondary data sources to examine changes in the relative position of the GoWell East study area across health, demographic, social, economic and environmental indicators.

Economic Assessment

2.35 The SG and GCC have established a Games Legacy Economic Evaluation (GLEE) group[14] to deliver the economic assessment. The remit of this group is to produce a high quality, robust evaluation of the economic legacies from the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games.

2.36 The economic assessment will provide a well-evidenced narrative of the economic contributions of the Games over delivery and legacy phases, at different spatial levels, across five topic areas. This includes the short term impacts of the Games activity directly associated with the delivery and hosting of the event, but also includes the potential longer-term legacies for business, the labour market, the tourism and events industry and the physical environment.

2.37 The economic assessment will have a number of components. Firstly, the SG Input Output (IO) Framework will be used to estimate GVA and employment impacts from the Games-related capital investment programme and the activities of Glasgow 2014 to prepare and host the Games.

2.38 Secondly, to examine the impact of visitors, a primary study has been commissioned. The project is a collaboration between SG, GCC, Glasgow Life and Glasgow City Marketing Bureau (GCMB). Fieldwork will take place during the Games and the survey will report in late 2014. When tourism national statistics are available in early 2015 it will then be possible to produce a Games-time visitor analysis with standard considerations made for leakage, deadweight, displacement and substitution effects.

2.39 Finally, we will draw on evaluations of legacy programmes, survey data and the GoWell East study to assess whether longer term legacy is achieved. Further primary research may also be required after the Games. A full report from the economic assessment will be available in 2015.

Secondary Analysis of Key Surveys

2.40 We have, and will, undertake further analysis of the underlying trends and patterns for some outcome indicators, where they help address the research questions specifically. Some of this analysis appears in this report.

2.41 The aforementioned Data Review recommended we make better use of longitudinal data sources. We have negotiated the inclusion of questions on engagement with the Games in the Scottish sample of Understanding Society (US) in 2014. This will allow an analysis of the relationship between Games engagement and taking part in sport. We have also proposed new questions on physical activity in the birth cohort study Growing Up in Scotland (GUS) to assess whether there is any evidence of a 'Commonwealth Games cohort' of children in Scotland whose physical activity is influenced through engagement with the Games.

Media monitoring

2.42 Online and social media monitoring and analysis has been developed. This will analyse and evaluate UK and overseas online media coverage and social media mentions of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games.

2.43 This will provide evidence for one of our key questions "Has there been a change in civic pride and/or international reputation?". Specifically, this work will help assess the contribution that the Games have upon the reputation of Scotland and Glasgow, both in the UK and internationally, across a range of domains including creativity, heritage, culture, arts, food and transport (among others).

2.44 We will focus on volume of mentions, topic of mentions and sentiment. English-speaking online media outlets and online social media platforms (including Twitter) will be monitored. The time period over which data will be analysed is pre-Games (January-July 2014) and post-Games (August-December 2014).

Partnership research

2.45 Finally, we plan to examine the longer-term impact of the Games experience on the nature and scale of partnership working across sectors in Scotland with a view to drawing out the transferable lessons for the public sector. This is likely to be qualitative work with partners, and will commence after the Games.

Conclusion

2.46 Table 2.1 provides a summary of the 6 key questions, supplementary questions and the methods we expect will address each of the research questions. We also set out what spatial level(s) the research question will be addressed.

2.47 It is too early to make summative statements about legacy from the Games. However, this report sets out progress to date and provides a prospective assessment of the plausibility of achieving legacy outcomes. It draws on:

- The evidence review published alongside this report

- Programme monitoring data

- Initial findings from GoWell East study

- Early data from indicator tracking (where appropriate)

- Economic modelling of capital investment

3. Flourishing

3.1 The Scottish Government Legacy Plan includes the 'flourishing' theme. This theme is about maximising the potential of the Games to contribute to the growth of the Scottish economy. The following three intermediate outcomes are sought under the flourishing theme:

- increase growth of Scottish businesses

- increase movement into employment, training and volunteering

- improve the perception of Scotland as a world class destination for business, events and tourism.

3.2 As discussed in Chapter 2, the key questions for evaluation under the flourishing theme are:

- What effect have the Games had on the economy, businesses, employment, training and volunteering?

- What effect have the Games had on international reputation?

The Evidence: What do we know?

3.3 The evidence presented in this section is published in the fully referenced evidence review that accompanies this report [15].

3.4 The review suggests that major events can leave economic legacies. In the main, the benefits tend to be short-term, and may be confined to particular sectors and groups. The available evidence for longer-term economic legacy is limited. However, it is important to note that this does not necessarily mean that these outcomes are unachievable.

3.5 There is evidence from previous major sporting events that short-term increases in economic growth, employment and tourism are probable. In particular, there is often a boost to employment in the run up to, and during, the hosting of major events. These effects are commonly experienced in the specific location of the event (usually a city), rather than in the national economy, but they can have a substantial effect on local employment levels.

3.6 The review suggests that there is a clear pattern in terms of which sectors of the economy see growth in activity and at what juncture. The most significant effects are commonly in the construction industry when accompanied by large event-related capital programmes, though studies find that while there is a strong boost associated with the construction of the venues in the run up to the event, this falls away in the year of the event.

3.7 The same studies find that the other sectors which are boosted are usually hospitality and tourism. There is good evidence for a short-term boost to tourism spending, and to tourism numbers over the wider period of the event. A fall in visitor numbers has, however, been observed during some events. This was the case in London 2012 where fewer tourists actually visited the city, but those who did visit spent a significantly higher amount than average[16].

3.8 While there is little evidence of a long-term boost to tourism as a result of hosting major events, some cities and nations have experienced a boost to their reputation and profile. There is often an increase in the reputation of the host city as a result of a major sporting event. Nevertheless, the impact is not always positive. There is the potential for a negative impact on the image of a city or region if the event is not seen as a success, or if it highlights a perceived weakness.

3.9 Evidence from previous events suggests that employment opportunities may not be evenly distributed. However, there is some evidence that, if effectively targeted, employment opportunities can reach the long-term unemployed, including those in the host areas. For example, there was a short-term boost to employment in the host-boroughs of the London 2012 Olympics, and this has had an effect on those who had been out of work for a significant period of time.

3.10 There is some limited evidence to suggest that a certain type of city or region benefits most from hosting major sporting events. In particular, these are often post-industrial cities which have the basis for significant growth, but where the economy has struggled to recover from the loss of major industries. Examples of this include Manchester, Barcelona and Turin.

3.11 Evidence suggests positive effects from volunteering as a result of the Games are possible. People that volunteer in major events often report an intention to volunteer again and report learning new skills and gains in confidence.

3.12 There is, however, a small body of evidence which suggests that those who gain volunteering positions at major sporting events tend to be those who already have key skills and tend to be regular volunteers at other events. Some commentators note that if a legacy objective is to engage more disadvantaged groups, volunteering programmes should be designed with extra training, funding and associated qualifications. This happened in the case of the Manchester 2002 Commonwealth Games.

3.13 Finally, there is a paucity of evidence on whether a long-term economic legacy is plausible. What evidence there is tells us that a step change to economic participation, productivity or international reputation is required. The evidence suggests that the Games-related activities could help to increase participation, by helping local people to gain skills and experience, and increase international reputation. The Games could, in theory, help boost productivity over the long-term by increasing business capacity and networks, but there is very limited long term research to establish whether this has happened in practice. Finally, the evidence shows that some host cities experience a boost to international reputation.

Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes

3.14 A number of national legacy programmes are underway to help capitalise on the Games. These are set out in Figure 3.2, below. More detailed information on the programmes and their early monitoring data is available on the Assessing Legacy 2014 website[17]. Some of these national programmes are also being externally evaluated, or self-evaluated by the lead organisations. Evaluation data will be available for some programmes in our first legacy report in autumn 2015.

Figure 3.1. Flourishing National Legacy Programmes

Programme

Who is delivering it?

Increase Growth of Scottish Businesses

Building business capacity and awareness

A wide range of organisations including Glasgow City Council, Scottish Enterprise, Glasgow 2014, Scottish Government

International business profile

A partnership of Scottish Enterprise, Visit Scotland, Scottish Development International, Scottish Government and Glasgow City Council

Increase Movement into Employment, Training and Volunteering

Glasgow 2014 Employment

A wide range of employers are involved, including Glasgow 2014, and the Department of Work and Pensions

Legacy 2014 Employer Recruitment Incentives

Skills Development Scotland

Legacy 2014 Scotland's Best

Skills Development Scotland in conjunction with learning providers

Legacy 2014 ScotGap

Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council have funded the separate segments

Host Broadcaster Training Initiative

SVGTV/Creative Loop

BP Young Leaders

Inspiring Scotland with the Dame Kelly Holmes Trust

Volunteering 2014

A partnership of organisations including Glasgow 2014 and the SQA

Improve the Perception of Scotland as a World Class Destination for Business, Events and Tourism

Securing major events

Event Scotland

Scotland Welcomes the World

Visit Scotland

2014 Food & Drink

The 2014 Food and Drink Team in collaboration with partners

Increase the growth of Scottish businesses

3.15 The national legacy programmes designed to contribute to increased levels of growth of Scottish businesses include the Building Business Capacity & Awareness and International Business Profile programmes.

3.16 The Building Business Capacity & Awareness programme is working with Scotland's business community to raise awareness of – and capacity to compete for – contracts for 2014 and beyond. This programme includes a wide range of activities, including:

- The Glasgow Business Portal – the portal (managed by GCC) is used to advertise and procure the goods, works and services required to deliver the Games and other public sector contracts within Glasgow.

- Business Engagement 2014 – a series of events to highlight the procurement opportunities that major events in 2014 can bring.

- Supplier Development Programme (SDP) – aims to assist small to medium sized enterprises to improve their performance in winning contracts with public sector organisations by providing information, support and training events to help unravel the tendering process[18].

3.17 The International Business Profile programme is a series of targeted activity, using the Games and other international events in Scotland, to showcase Scotland's goods and services, develop relations with international markets and improve Scotland's reputation as a great place to do business. Examples of specific activity include:

- Global Sports Programme

- Commonwealth Games Business Conference

- Scotland House

- Scotland's Key Sectors Conferences

- Queen's Baton Relay (QBR)

Increase Movement into Employment, Training and Volunteering

3.18 Glasgow 2014 itself is, and will be, a source of jobs, training and volunteering opportunities. By Games-time, Glasgow 2014 expects to have around 1,400 directly employed staff in positions ranging from planning and marketing the Games to very specific Games-time delivery roles.

3.19 The Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) is working to support businesses who win contracts to fill and match vacancies using their matching service, 'Universal Jobmatch'. Further, Glasgow 2014 estimates that Games-time service delivery contracts may generate demand for up to 30,000 contracted positions.

3.20 The Games have also opened up additional pathways to employment through three specific Games-related programmes. These are:

- Legacy 2014 ScotGap – providing work and training in security services to students

- Host Broadcaster Initiative – providing practical training in live broadcast, creative production and technology skills to over 200 students

- BP Young Leaders – an 18 month programme that focuses on disadvantaged young people and their communities

3.21 The Scottish Government Legacy 2014 Young Persons' Fund aims to support 2,500 young people towards employment, and create a 'skills legacy' from the Games. The fund supports two programmes – the Legacy 2014 Employer Recruitment Incentive (ERI) and the Legacy 2014 Scotland's Best. The ERI awards £1,500 payments to help employers with fewer than 150 employees to support a 16-19 year old onto a Modern Apprenticeship (MA) in particular sectors. Legacy 2014 Scotland's Best is an employability programme combining volunteering and training opportunities for up to 1,000 young people aged 16 to 24 across Scotland.

3.22 Glasgow City Council (GCC) and partners are leading on additional employability and training programmes[19]. GCC will be reporting in detail on these separately. But worthy of particular note is the commitment to Community Benefit Clauses for Games-related public sector contracts. GCC introduced the specific community clauses[20] into the tendering process for major Commonwealth Games-related projects to create employment and business opportunities for local people and companies. Furthermore, the Glasgow Guarantee has secured employment and training opportunities for young people and the long-term unemployed.

3.23 Glasgow 2014 is responsible for recruiting and training up to 15,000 Games-time Volunteers (to become clyde-siders) for the event itself. The Legacy 2014 Volunteer Support Programme is a £500,000 BIG Lottery Fund supported initiative to help people overcome practical and financial barriers to volunteering. The fund, managed by Volunteer Scotland, will support up to 500 successful volunteer applicants.

3.24 Volunteer Scotland have provided a service since 2011 which is aimed at connecting event organisers with those interested in volunteering at events of all sizes throughout Scotland. Partners are promoting this service to the events industry. There are approximately 2400 people currently registered.

3.25 Finally, and worthy of particular note, Glasgow Life is delivering one of Glasgow City Council's 80 legacy projects, the Glasgow Host City Volunteer Programme[21]. It aims to maximise the potential impact of the Games on civic pride, volunteering legacy aspirations, and communities in the host city. Up to 1,500 people from communities in Glasgow underrepresented in the Glasgow 2014 volunteering programme will be supported to become Host City Volunteers. The programme also has a community engagement and active citizenship programme.

Improve the Perception of Scotland as a World Class Destination for Business, Events and Tourism

3.26 EventScotland and partners, including Glasgow's Strategic Major Events Forum members, are aiming to capitalise on the Games to secure major events in Scotland up to and beyond 2014 using the newly-constructed and refurbished Games venues and the 17 competition sports. To date, 37 national and international events have been secured, with an estimated economic impact of over £14 million.

3.27 Under the banner of 'Scotland Welcomes the World', VisitScotland have launched both domestic and international marketing campaigns, highlighting Scotland's tourism offering. Partners are also using the Queen's Baton Relay to hold media and trade events in key overseas and domestic markets in the lead up to the Games.

3.28 VisitScotland is also working with partners to deliver the 'Accessible Tourism' programme which aims to improve the level of service provided by the Scottish tourism industry. Furthermore, the Greener Glasgow Tourism Project is encouraging all accommodation contracted for the Games to be part of an environmental accreditation scheme.

3.29 The Scotland 2014 Food and Drink Team is working in collaboration with partners to capitalise on the Commonwealth Games and the wider 'Year of 2014' to showcase Scotland's produce to the world. The programme will undertake a wide range of activities with the overall aim of increasing the value of the Scottish Food and Drink sector to £16.5 billion by 2017.

What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline

3.30 This section describes the evidence we have to date which can help assess the effect of the Games on the economy, businesses, employment, volunteering and international reputation. Clearly in many cases it is too early to make any assessment of the Games effect, however, we have some early information on the pre-Games position.

3.31 Broadly speaking, the picture described by the flourishing indicators (Annex 2) is unremarkable at this stage, with some measures of the economy at the national and Glasgow level showing signs of recovery following the significant global downturn in 2008.

3.32 As noted earlier, the evidence review shows that specific sectors of the economy are likely to be affected most by the hosting of the Commonwealth Games. A sector in which we might expect to see an effect of the Games, at this stage, is construction.

3.33 Notably, in the case of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, 70% of the venues were already in place at the time of bidding, although some refurbishment was required. As we set out later, this bodes well for a sustainable infrastructure post-Games. However, this also means that the economic impact of construction may be less than for other major similar sporting events. Nevertheless, the wider regeneration effort in the East End of Glasgow has also supported GVA and jobs since 2008. Indeed, the regeneration effort will be a key contributor to both economic and social legacies from the Games. (See Chapter 4).

3.34 The early modelling work shows that the £500 million spending on construction and refurbishment of Games venues and the Athletes' Village over the six years leading to 2014 is estimated to support on average around 1,000 jobs and contribute £52 million to Scotland's GVA in each year. As the map below demonstrates, much of the construction and refurbishment of venues has taken place in the Glasgow area.

Figure 3.2 : Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games Venues

3.35 Furthermore, the £100 million spending in Glasgow and South Lanarkshire by Clyde Gateway URC to help create a regenerated, well-designed and sustainable community in the East End of Glasgow over the six year to the Games is estimated to support around 200 jobs, on average, and contribute £10 million to Scotland's GVA in each year.

3.36 There is also good evidence from previous major sporting events for a short-term boost to tourism numbers and spending. Based on this evidence and on ticket sales/allocations for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games we would expect to see an increase in visitors and visitor expenditure in 2014 – both domestic and international.

3.37 Overall, a minimum of 70% of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games tickets were publicly available, with a further 9% allocation to Commonwealth Games associations and the CGF, 8% for sponsors, 7% for broadcast partners and 1% for Games partners[22]. After the application phase in November 2013, more than half of the public tickets (57%) were allocated to addresses in Scotland; a further 40% were allocated to addresses in England; and 3% to addresses in the rest of the UK and overseas.

3.38 It is estimated that for each £100 million of tourism spend in 2014, around 1,300 FTE jobs will be supported and will contribute £45 million to Scottish GVA, with 70% of supported jobs in the distribution and catering sectors. Spending by tourists in Scotland generates £10 billion of economic activity in the wider Scottish supply chain and contributes £5 billion to Scottish GDP. This represents just under 5% of total Scottish GDP.

3.39 The combined domestic and international overnight tourism visits and spend in Scotland has remained broadly stable since 2008, at roughly 15.0 million visits and £4.3 billion expenditure. Total overnight and day visitor expenditure in Scotland was around £9 billion in 2012. The Visitor Impact Study we have commissioned will provide data on visitor profiles and expenditure at Games-time.

3.40 The perception of Scotland and Glasgow as a place for tourism has remained relatively stable since 2008, according to the Nations Brand Index (NBISM). This is in line with the evidence review which suggests that any change in the perception of the host of major events is most likely after the event takes place. The NBISM also shows that Scotland's perceived strengths continuing to be in its natural beauty rather than in its cities. This suggests there may be an opportunity to improve the perception of the cities' domain during the Games.

3.41 Glasgow 2014 was incorporated in 2007 and is classified under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) within sports activity and recreation education. A direct result is that Glasgow 2014 will contribute to the performance of the sports activity and recreation education sector, especially in Glasgow, alongside other factors. This has yet to show in the indicators on GVA and employment, given that most Glasgow 2014 activity has taken place after 2011.

3.42 However, as mentioned above, we do know that Glasgow 2014, as an organisation, has been growing and is supporting jobs, training and volunteering up to 2014. By Games-time, Glasgow 2014 expects to have approximately 1,400 directly employed staff. Furthermore, Glasgow 2014 estimates that Games delivery contracts will potentially support up to 30,000 contracted positions. However, we will be providing estimates for the GVA and jobs supported by Glasgow 2014 separately when final outturn data is available after the Games using the Scottish Government Input-Output (IO) methodology framework.

3.43 The latest position in terms of Games-related contracts is that nearly three quarters of all agreed contracts have been awarded to Scottish companies (73%)[23]. In value terms, this equates to £257 million, which is 82% of the total value of Tier 1 contacts procured. Businesses from across Scotland (representing 23 local authority areas) have won contracts and there are nearly £20 million worth of contracts still being tendered by Glasgow 2014[24].

3.44 The evidence review suggests some potential for the development of the Creative Industries sector as a result of hosting major events. The impact of the 2008 downturn is also evident in this sector, although with a more robust recovery both in Glasgow, and across Scotland. This will remain an important indicator to track, particularly as Glasgow accounts for a significant proportion of Scottish GVA in the sector.

3.45 As aforementioned in paragraph 3.26, there may be particular scope for growing the events industry by using the Games infrastructure and developing skills base (paid and voluntary) to attract national and international sporting events. To date, 37 national and international events in Games venues have been secured, both before and after the Games, at an economic value of over £14 million.

3.46 There is evidence that, if effectively targeted, employment opportunities can reach the long-term unemployed, including those in the host areas. Such short-term employment may reduce the distance from permanent labour market opportunities. Overall, national legacy programmes have the potential to deliver over 5,000 employment and training opportunities across Scotland. Additional opportunities are already being delivered through the Glasgow Guarantee, one of Glasgow's 80 legacy projects.

3.47 In terms of the 'host' area, there is data from GoWell East baseline survey that explores the early effects of the Games on employment and training. It found that 7% or respondents aged 16-64 years old had undertaken paid employment related to the construction or operation of the new Games facilities or related improvement projects in the area in the period 2011-12. Further just over 15% of working age adults identified their recent or current training, apprenticeship or work experience to be associated with a Games or regeneration project in the area over the same period.

3.48 The evidence suggests some positive effects from volunteering as a result of the Games are plausible, although those who gain volunteering positions at major sporting events tend to be those who already have key skills and tend to be regular volunteers at other events. Engaging more disadvantaged groups requires volunteering programmes to include extra training, funding and associated qualifications.

3.49 Interest in the volunteer opportunities for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is high. There were up to 50,000 applications to the Glasgow 2014 Volunteer programme and 15,000 clyde-siders have been recruited. There have now been over 1,000 applications from these volunteers for the Volunteer Support Programme. Data from all Glasgow 2014 volunteer applicants who have given their permission will be transferred to the aforementioned Volunteer Scotland database.

3.50 Data from a baseline survey of Glasgow 2014 volunteer applicants suggests that most applicants had recent experience of volunteering in a formal capacity (83%) in the past 12 months[25]. Furthermore, over a third (35%) had volunteered in a sporting capacity over the past 12 months. The main motivations for applying were: to participate in the excitement of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games (89%), to use my skills (61%), and to make a positive difference to the community (52%). This chimes with previous research on volunteer profiles at major sporting events.

3.51 As aforementioned in paragraph 3.25, Glasgow City Council and Glasgow Life are also leading the Glasgow Host City Volunteer Programme. Up to 1,500 people from communities in Glasgow underrepresented in the Glasgow 2014 volunteering programme will be supported to volunteer during the Games. An evaluation is underway and will report in 2015.

3.52 GoWell East respondents were asked if they intended to get involved in volunteering at Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. Almost a quarter (24%) said they wanted to volunteer during the Games. We will be able to establish at Sweep 2 whether these respondents actually volunteered as a clyde-sider or at any other Games-related volunteering programme.

Prospective Assessment and Summary

3.53 Overall, both the evidence on previous major sporting events, and the preparation to date, suggests that the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games should make a short-term contribution to the Scottish economy.

3.54 There is evidence that, if effectively targeted, employment opportunities can reach the long-term unemployed, including those in the host areas. Games partners have been working to leverage legacy from infrastructure investments and contracting in terms of employment, training and volunteering.

3.55 There is a lack of evidence on the plausibility of achieving long-term economic legacy from major sporting events. Longer-term legacy appears to be dependent on a step change in participation, productivity or international reputation. This evaluation will add to that evidence base.

3.56 A prospective assessment for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is presented in the final chapter.

4. Sustainable

4.1 The Scottish Government Legacy Plan includes a 'sustainable' theme. This theme is about using the Games to demonstrate environmental responsibility and help communities live more sustainably. The following three intermediate outcomes are sought under the sustainable theme:

- Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow (in particular the East End)

- Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth

- Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility

4.2 As set out in Chapter 2, the key evaluation question under this theme is:

- What effect have the Games had on the community in the area of Glasgow's East End most directly affected?

The Evidence: What do we know?

4.3 The evidence presented in this section is published in the fully referenced evidence review that accompanies this report.[26]

4.4 Evidence from past major sporting events suggest that they can speed up and extend regeneration plans and thereby act as catalysts for accelerated socio-economic development where large capital investments are made. However, these need to be linked to the city's wider plans and objectives, rather than be delivered as stand-alone initiatives.

4.5 The Barcelona 1992 Olympics are often used as an example to demonstrate how a city can use a major event to widen urban regeneration. One of the key factors for Barcelona's success was that Games development plans were incorporated into existing regeneration strategies.

4.6 In contrast, Sydney initially struggled to find post-Game use for its venues and related transport network. Games legacy plans were developed later. A similar problem with transport designed for short-term use has been noted in relation to the Athens 2004 Olympics. In the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics, the promise of social housing – which played an important part in the bid – did not come to fruition.

4.7 In East Manchester, the 2002 Commonwealth Games was the focal point for local regeneration that resulted in a new regional retail centre, hotels, offices and a new housing development. Similarly, London 2012 appears to have contributed to accelerated and expanded regeneration in East London. A substantial amount of land has been remediated, disused buildings have been demolished, and pylons have been placed underground. This has made space for six permanent sport-venues, new housing, 100 hectares of green space, business space, and a new shopping-centre development.

4.8 The London 2012 meta-evaluation states that many of these changes would have occurred in absence of the Games, but that development was accelerated, and more integrated, as a result of the Games. It is still too early to know the extent to which this regeneration has been successful, although there are signs that change is taking place.

4.9 Evidence from previous events also highlight the need to engage communities in the regeneration process. Barcelona 1992 has been seen as an event which focussed on many small scale neighbourhood projects, such as the provision of public facilities to marginalised neighbourhoods, as well as big prestige projects. The budget for staging the actual event only made up a small part of the overall budget. Nevertheless, there has been some criticism that the process should have involved more participation from neighbourhoods.

4.10 Issues of displacement and widening inequality have been raised, in particular in relation to Beijing 2008. Use of vacant and derelict land and remediation of contaminated land, as was the case in Sydney 2000 and London 2012, provides a way of minimising the negative impact. Rather than forcing existing communities to relocate, using land that is disused can instead build on the local physical environment.

4.11 Beyond improvements to the environment, there is some evidence that major sporting events can increase community engagement and cohesion, at least in the run up to, and immediately after, the event. A survey of young people who had engaged in London 2012 related activities found that a large proportion felt more engaged with their community as a result.

4.12 In terms of using major sporting events to demonstrate sustainable design and practices, it is clear that environmental consciousness has been a part of hosting major sporting events for some time. An example of this was after the 1992 Albertville Winter Olympics in France, when concerns were raised and bidders are now required to address sustainability issues. Indeed, major sporting events have been used to showcase innovative design and high standards in sustainable practices. In the case of the Commonwealth Games, the CGF require certain sustainability criteria to be met.

4.13 Sydney 2000 Olympics was the first large sporting event to put sustainability and high environmental standards at its core and these were made an important point in the bidding process. However, it transpired that many contractors found it difficult to adhere to these and the standards had to be lowered in order not to lose private sector buy-in. A decade later, the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics aimed for an unprecedented level of commitment to sustainability. The Olympic Village was labelled the most energy efficient neighbourhood in the world, and the event was used to showcase cutting-edge technologies.

4.14 London 2012 implemented a range of sustainable policies and practices in terms of waste, water consumption, carbon emissions and energy efficiency. Other large-scale UK projects, such as Cross-rail and High Speed 2, now appear to be using key features of this sustainability approach. London also inspired the creation of ISO 20121, a new environmental standard management system which is now used by the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and Rio 2016 Olympics.

4.15 Some evidence suggests that there are signs of a market change in sustainability ambitions as a result of the Games. Nevertheless, concerns have been raised about whether these standards are adopted within small and medium size public sector projects and whether there is enough impetus behind their promotion within business, sport, culture and event sectors.

Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes

4.16 A number of legacy programmes are underway at national level under the sustainable theme. These are set out in Figure 6.1. More detailed information on the programmes and their monitoring data is available on the Assessing Legacy 2014 website. Some programmes are being externally evaluated, or self-evaluated by the lead organisations. Evaluation data will be available for these programmes in our first legacy report in autumn 2015.

Figure 4.1. Sustainable Legacy Programmes

Programme

Where is programme taking place?

Who is delivering it?

Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the East End

Games Venues and Athletes' Village

Primarily within the Glasgow City Council boundary although there are satellite venues further afield.

multiple agencies including: the Scottish Government, Glasgow City Council, South Lanarkshire Council, City of Edinburgh Council and North Lanarkshire Council

Clyde Gateway activity

Focus on Glasgow's East End and parts of neighbouring South Lanarkshire

Clyde Gateway URC

Transport Improvements

Glasgow and West Central Scotland

Transport Scotland with other partners, including Glasgow City Council, Strathclyde Partnership for Transport and the Organising Committee.

Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth

Scottish Sport Relief Home and Away Programme

Throughout Scotland. The away element supports four projects comprising two in Malawi, one in South Africa and one in Uganda.

Sport Relief who work with 26 organisations to deliver the services

SPFL Supporting Scotland's Communities

Across Scotland

coordinated by the Scottish Professional Football League (via the SPFL Trust) and delivered locally

Legacy 2014 Pilotlight

across Scotland

Pilotlight Scotland

Street Soccer Scotland

Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen

Street Soccer Scotland

ASPIRE Dundee

Dundee

funded by Scottish Government, Creative Scotland and Dundee City Council and delivered in partnership with a number of local partners

SCDC Games Legacy Community Programme

across Scotland

Scottish Community Development Centre (SCDC)

SFA and Malawi FA

Kaponda, Malawi

SFA and the Malawi Football Association

Commonwealth Saltire Professional Fellowships

across Scotland with benefits to other commonwealth countries

Commonwealth Scholarship Commission, in partnership with the host universities

Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility

Legacy 2014 Commonwealth Woodlands and Cuningar Loop Riverside Woodland Park

across 13 woodlands in Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire

Forestry Commission Scotland, Glasgow City Council, South Lanarkshire Council, West Dunbartonshire Council, Cassiltoun Housing Association and Paths for All, with support from the Woodland Trust and the Commonwealth Forestry Association.

Legacy 2014 Sustainability Hub

The Lighthouse, Glasgow

Architecture and Design Scotland (A+DS) and partners

Sustainable event management

Games venues in Glasgow and satellite venues

Glasgow 2014 and partners

Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the East End

4.17 Our evaluation question for the sustainable theme asks about the effect that the Games are having on the community in the Glasgow's East End. There are a number of investments and programmes underway or complete to affect change in the area. The construction of venues, the Athletes' Village, the wider Clyde Gateway regeneration activity and other public realm and transport improvements are all playing their part. Additional funding provided to Clyde Gateway between 2012 and 2014 has helped ensure that Games-related projects are complete.

4.18 GCC has led on a programme of major capital projects for the venues and the Athletes' Village. Venues newly built or refurbished in the East End of Glasgow include the Emirates Arena, the Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome, the Hockey Centre and Tollcross International Swimming Centre.

4.19 Alongside these Games-specific developments, Clyde Gateway Urban Regeneration Company is delivering a wider regeneration programme across their area[27]. This regeneration activity has seen almost 21,000 square feet of environmentally friendly business space created, 102 hectares of land remediated or decontaminated and £28 million of private sector investment attracted to the area.[28]

4.20 Eight of their 14 Games-related construction projects have been completed to date. Clyde Gateway is also in the process of creating a new £5 million urban forest at Cuningar Loop on the banks of the river directly opposite the Athletes' Village with two new pedestrian bridges across the River Clyde. Clyde Gateway has been engaging with local residents throughout this process.

4.21 Transport improvements involve around £1 billion of Games-related road and rail transport infrastructure projects. In the East End, these include the M74 which was completed in June 2011, on time and under budget. The Dalmarnock Railway Station has re-opened after refurbishment.

4.22 There are also a range of Games investments elsewhere in Glasgow. These include refurbished or newly built venues including the Scotstoun Stadium, Kelvingrove Lawn Bowls Centre, Cathkin Braes Mountain Biking Circuit, and Scotstoun Leisure Centre. The newly-constructed venues are now complete and open for local community, schools, sport clubs and major event use.

Strengthen and empower communities

4.23 In addition to the changes happening in the East End area of Glasgow, there are a range of programmes in place that aim to strengthen and empower communities across Scotland. In addition, some programmes are targeted at communities in other Commonwealth countries.

4.24 Street Soccer Scotland and The Scottish Professional Football League (SPFL) are using football to engage disadvantaged groups who have experienced homelessness, mental health problems, addictions, and unemployment.

4.25 The 'Home' element of the Scottish Sport Relief Home and Away Programme is also aiming to support disadvantaged groups, including those with mental health problems, older people and women and children affected by domestic abuse. The 'away' element of provides support to communities across the Commonwealth that are living in slum conditions, facing malnutrition and barriers in accessing mainstream education.

4.26 Empowering disadvantaged groups is also the aim of the Aspire Dundee legacy programme. Using local expertise, it uses a range of cultural activities – including dance, drama and music – as a way of tackling deprivation in disadvantaged schools in Dundee.

4.27 There are also some legacy programmes that aim to strengthen and empower local community organisations. Legacy 2014 Pilotlight matches teams of senior business people with the directors of 12 small and medium-sized charities and social enterprises. The Scottish Community Development Centre (SCDC) also aimed to help organisations across Scotland to use the Games as a catalyst for building on their work to develop activities and projects.

4.28 The Scottish Football Association (SFA) and the Malawi Football Association's joint collaboration aims to support on-going knowledge and skill transfer between the two nations. The programme sets out to develop infrastructure, coaching and referee skills, provide training, equipment and resources.

4.29 Knowledge transfer is also the theme of the Commonwealth Saltire Professional Fellowships programmes which focuses on climate change and environmental issues. In Scotland, host universities offer the cohort of fellows from the Commonwealth an intensive 1-3 month long programme of activities and learning.

Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility

4.30 New or improved technological methods and materials are being used in the development of the Athletes' Village and other Games venues to provide practical exemplars for future developments. For example, the homes from the Athletes' Village will be low rise, with energy efficiency features which should result in reduced energy bills and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the Combined Heat and Power Energy Centre at the Athletes' Village will ultimately provide hot water to the residential community and care home, as well as the Emirates Arena and the Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome.

4.31 Glasgow 2014 is developing environmental management plans for the venues to minimise the environmental impact of the Games. The environmental management system standard ISO 20121 is being used. This is designed to help events organisations to minimise and recycle waste, to ensure sustainability is embedded within the procurement process and used in the development of sustainable transport plans.

4.32 To ensure the specialist knowledge is retained post-Games, the Glasgow 2014 is working closely with Zero Waste Scotland, GCC, and CGF to transfer knowledge to local government and future host cities. In addition, Resource Efficient Scotland is creating an Sustainable Events Guide using learning from major events throughout 2014, including the Commonwealth Games. This guide will be distributed to event organisers and local authorities throughout Scotland, promoting environmental best practice.

4.33 Sustainable design does not only refer to Games-specific infrastructure but also to design of the local environment. For example, the Cuningar Loop Riverside Woodland Park, situated within the Clyde Gateway regeneration area at Rutherglen, is a newly constructed woodland park. It will incorporate a range of paths and recreational areas, and there will be a range of outdoor activities. There are also another 13 woodlands in and around Glasgow within the Clyde Valley, which provide a range of activities.

4.34 These, and other developments, will be showcased at an exhibition entitled 'Green 2014: The Environmental Legacy of the XX Commonwealth Games' at the Lighthouse Exhibition Centre in Glasgow. This exhibition aims which aims to tell the sustainability story of the Games and its legacy. This exhibition opened recently and will run until the end of September 2014.

What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline

4.35 This section focuses on addressing the evaluation question for sustainable 'What effect have the Games had on the community in the area of Glasgow's East End most directly affected?'. It draws on findings from the accompanying evidence review, data from the GoWell East longitudinal community study[29] and the findings of a prospective assessment of the potential impacts of the Games in the East End of Glasgow published by the GoWell Team[30]. The data from the GoWell East baseline survey was collected in 2012[31].

4.36 Overall, the evidence suggests we might expect the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games to have an impact on the physical and social environment in the area of the East End of Glasgow where much of the Games investment – and crucially – the longer-term regeneration effort has occurred.

4.37 The Games investment in Glasgow is embedded into broader regeneration strategies. But, the scale and pace differs from other recent regeneration in Glasgow, particularly in regard to land and transport investment, and in efforts to directly link employers to the local labour market[32]. The GoWell East study will be looking at how the East End study area compares with other GoWell areas across Glasgow at a later stage. This will help us assess the 'additionality' of the Games.

4.38 As discussed in Chapter 3, the economic modelling indicates that the £100 million spending in Glasgow and South Lanarkshire by Clyde Gateway URC to help create a regenerated, well-designed and sustainable community in the East End of Glasgow over the six year to the Games is estimated to support, on average, around 200 jobs, and contribute £10 million to Scotland's GVA in each year.

4.39 In the East End of Glasgow changes have already been observed in levels of remediated land and creation of green space and woodlands. The total area of derelict and vacant land has decreased by 29% (from 118 hectares to 84 hectares) between 2008 and 2012. The comparable figure for Glasgow as a whole is 6%. The reduction in vacant and derelict land is reflected in a large increase in the amount of land brought back into use.

4.40 The latest data show that total area of greenspace in the East End is 178 hectares, with the largest areas being private gardens or grounds (including schools) comprising 56 hectares and public parks and gardens comprising 48 hectares. The nearby Cuningar Loop covers 26 hectares of greenspace, of which the Cuningar Loop Riverside Woodland Park will comprise 15 hectares. The park will incorporate a range of paths and recreational areas, including an events hub.

4.41 When GoWell East respondents were asked how they rate the quality of parks and green spaces in or near their local area in 2012, 75% gave them a positive rating ('very good' or 'fairly good'), with 46% saying 'very good'. Almost half (47%) of the respondents to the GoWell East survey said they visit the outdoors once per week or more, which is similar to Scotland as a whole (46%)[33].

4.42 In 2012, a total of 44% of GoWell East respondents said their neighbourhood had improved over the last three years. This compares favourably with other deprived areas in Scotland as well as with Scotland as a whole (see Figure 4.2). In Scotland, a large majority consider their areas to have stayed the same. In the 20% most deprived areas across Scotland, a similar proportion think their areas has got better compared to those that think it has got worse, with the largest number consider their area neither to be better nor worse. Thus, East End residents appear to perceive clear improvements in their area since 2008.

Figure 4.2: Perceptions of neighbourhood improvement by proportion of people 2012

4.43 There is limited evidence from previous major sporting events on their potential role in strengthening and empowering communities. So, notably there is evidence of effective community engagement in the East End. In 2012, more than a third of respondents in the GoWell East baseline survey agree that they can influence decisions in the local area, higher than in other similarly deprived regeneration areas (see figure 4.2, below). Engagement with the Games is also high in the area, with over three quarters (76%) supportive of the Games.

Figure 4.3: Perception of being able to influence decisions in their local area 2012

4.44 In addition to infrastructure improvements, there are a range of other legacy programmes underway in the East End that cut across our national themes. These include employability programmes, cultural programming and physical activity interventions. GoWell East will examine changes in physical activity and wellbeing, experience and outcomes of employment, learning and volunteering and engagement with legacy programmes as it progresses.

4.45 For example, baseline data from Sweep 1 indicate the GoWell East cohort is more active than might be expected, given known patterns of participation in physical activity and area deprivation. 58% of the cohort participated in at least 150 minutes of moderate or vigorous physical activity (MVPA) over the course of a week. This compares to 62% of the Scottish population. Further, sports participation specifically was higher amongst the East End cohort than the national Scotland population level: 58% compared to 54%. There is also evidence from GoWell East of residents' awareness and intention to use the enhanced sports infrastructure in their area that is related to the Games. 41% of the cohort said they intend to use new or improved sports facilities linked to the Commenwealth Games.

4.46 Active travel is notably higher in the area than in Scotland, with a third of respondents using active modes to travel to work or college, compared to a Scotland figure of 15%. This is likely to be related to the proximity to Glasgow's City Centre, and possibly to lower levels of car ownership in the East End.

4.47 The GoWell East study will also include looking at ecological data alongside survey data. This will, for example, include looking at actual crime statistics, data on the business and retail environment, schools, and the physical environment. Tracking this data over time will provide a fuller picture of how the six local communities are changing over time. (See map in Chapter 2).

4.48 As discussed earlier, there is also a range of programmes and activities happening across Scotland and in targeted communities in the Commonwealth. These programmes also aim to support disadvantaged communities. It is too early to make any assessment of their effectiveness. Monitoring and evaluation data from these programmes will become available over the next year.

Prospective Assessment and Summary: what does the evidence suggest?

4.49 Overall, evidence from past major events suggest that hosting major sporting events can speed up and extend regeneration plans, acting as catalysts for socio-economic development. However, the evidence also highlights that Games-related activity needs to be embedded into long-term regeneration plans and have community engagement at its heart.

4.50 The investments for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games in the East End of Glasgow are integrated into the wider regeneration effort. Some of the early data from the GoWell East study is promising, particularly in terms of respondents views on neighbourhood improvement and community influence.

4.51 A prospective assessment for Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is presented in the final chapter.

5. Active

5.1 The Scottish Government Legacy Plan includes the 'Active' theme. This theme is about maximising the potential of the Games and related programmes to help people in Scotland be more active; to make Scotland's places more conducive to active lifestyles and to develop high performance sport in Scotland.

5.2 Three intermediate outcomes are sought under the Active Legacy theme:

- Improve the active infrastructure (people and places)

- Increase physical activity and participation in sport

- Improve Scottish sporting success.

5.3 As discussed in Chapter 2, the key question for evaluation under the Active theme is:

- What effect have the Games had on active infrastructure, sports participation and physical activity?

The Evidence: What do we know?

5.4 The accompanying review[34] found the evidence on the relationship between sports participation and physical activity and major sporting events to be mixed and often of low quality.

5.5 Much of the evidence available is tracking of the headline rate of adult sports participation over the event and its aftermath (a 'before and after' time series). These headline rates are typically based on population surveys, either dedicated surveys of participation in sport, or general household surveys which include questions on sport.

5.6 Commonly cited major events include the Sydney 2000 Olympics (where the evidence is mixed and inconclusive), and the Barcelona 1992 Olympics (where some evidence of increase in sports participation was found, although this has been disputed). The most recent meta-evaluation of the London 2012 Olympics reported increases in sports participation which it ascribes to the impact of the event and associated legacy programmes. The evidence review found very little research on the impact of Commonwealth Games in particular on sport participation, with the exception of two references to Manchester and Melbourne, where small declines in participation were noted.

5.7 What is clear is that increased sports participation and/or physical activity is not an automatic result of hosting a major sporting event. Changes in population levels of sports participation, and physical activity more broadly, are affected by factors at various levels: individual, environmental and structural. Only the first two are potentially amenable to change as a result of hosting a major sporting event.

- Individual/Personal: age, gender, knowledge/awareness of benefits, attitudes, skills, self-efficacy; motivation, interest;

- Environmental/community: facilities, green space, cost, weather, family & peer influences;

- Macro/structural: ageing population, urbanisation trends, decline in leisure time availability, rise in sedentary leisure alternatives; rise in car ownership and use, decline in manual occupations.

5.8 It is also important to note that while clearly linked, sports participation and physical activity are not the same thing. It is possible to be sufficiently active for health without taking part in sport, through walking or active commuting to work or school, for example. Conversely it is possible to take part in some sports without vigorously exercising.

5.9 Theories of how major events may affect sports participation and physical activity tend to focus on the impact of events on the individual-level factors. The review cites some evidence of a 'demonstration effect' – where major sporting events can inspire increased sports participation in three ways:

- Increased frequency of participation by existing sports participants

- Renewed sports participation in lapsed participants

- Existing sports participants can be inspired to try a new sport

5.10 In addition, the theory suggests that a 'festival effect' can encourage those who are not interested in sport and not very active to consider undertaking more physical activity. The wider celebrations, cultural activity and community events associated with a major sporting event can inspire some people to take part in more activity related to their interests. This 'festival effect' is thought to potentially inspire those who are uninterested in sport and unlikely to be receptive to public health messages about the health benefits of sport.

5.11 Beyond any potential impact of the event itself, a recurring theme is that legacies from major events do not happen by chance, but require careful planning and embedding in existing strategies on sport and physical activity.

5.12 The evidence review highlights two key issues related to major sporting events and their active infrastructure legacies: the long-term use of event infrastructure and the importance of grassroots sports infrastructure.

5.13 The concern with event infrastructure in the literature is a long-standing one about insufficient long-term planning for subsequent use of major stadia (the 'white elephant' issue). The evidence review concludes the post-Games usage of venues has varied considerably from event to event, though there are some indications that over time, the 'white elephant' issue has become less prevalent as awareness has grown of the importance of early planning for post-Games use and integration into the existing infrastructure landscape.

5.14 The evidence is mixed on whether grassroots sports infrastructure can be enhanced in relation to the hosting of a major event. As with other potential impacts, it is clear there is no automatic effect. Previous major events have varied in the extent to which a grassroots legacy has been specifically sought and planned for. A research study after London 2012 (cited in the evidence review) suggests there is a perception amongst sports clubs in England of a lack of support and funding to build a long term grassroots legacy.

5.15 There is not a large literature on the effect of hosting a major event on the performance of the host nation. A review of the limited wider literature on factors that influence international sporting success concluded that more than half the determinants of success identified are macro-level factors largely beyond the influence of government[35].

5.16 The meta-evaluation of the London 2012 Olympics concluded that there is evidence that Great Britain's team performance was boosted by the UK hosting the Games. Research conducted with sport National Governing Bodies as part of the 2012 meta-evaluation indicated that performance development programmes led to more careful monitoring and improvement of all aspects of elite sport development, from talent identification and development, to elite athlete support (including wider lifestyle factors), to sports science and medicine and elite coach development.

5.17 This performance development approach, coupled with enhanced scientific research and innovation and increased funding for elite sport is considered to have contributed to the success of Team GB in the 2012 Olympics, as conventionally measured in numbers of medals won. Medal performance was at the upper end of the target range with 65 medals won in Olympic sports and 120 in Paralympic sports.

Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes

5.18 A number of national legacy programmes are underway to help capitalise on the Games. These are set out in Figure 4.1. More detailed information on the programmes and their early monitoring data is available on the Assessing Legacy 2014 website. Some of these programmes are also being externally evaluated, or self-evaluated by the lead organisations. Evaluation data will be available for some programmes in our first legacy report in autumn 2015.

Figure 5.1. Active Legacy Programmes

Programme

Who is delivering it?

Increase Physical Activity and Participation in Sport

Physical Activity Implementation Plan

Scottish Government, Local Authorities, NHS Heath Boards, NHS Health Scotland, local government and Education, Environment, and Sport and Transport bodies

Fit in 2014

NHS Health Scotland and Scottish Government

Sport and PE in schools

sportscotland and Education Scotland with Local Authorities and other partners

Games for Scotland

EventScotland with Local Authorities

Big 2014 Communities Programme

The BIG Lottery Fund Scotland

Mytime Active's Healthy Powerful Communities

Mytime Active

Improve the Active Infrastructure (people and places)

Community Sport Hubs

sportscotland, working with individual local authorities

Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund

sportscotland

Legacy 2014 Sustainable Sport for Communities Fund

Social Investment Scotland and the Robertson Trust

Supporting Coaches and Volunteers

sportscotland with Scottish Governing Bodies of sport

Improve Scottish Sporting Success

High Performance Sport

sportscotland

Increase Physical Activity and Participation in Sport

5.19 The key national legacy programmes designed to influence population levels of activity in adults and children include the national Physical Activity Implementation Plan (PAIP)[36] and the Sport & PE in Schools programme.

5.20 The PAIP is a new 10 year plan which adapts the key elements of the 2010 Toronto Charter[37] for Physical Activity to Scotland, and links this directly to the Scottish Government's legacy ambitions for the Commonwealth Games. The Toronto Charter was developed following extensive worldwide expert consultation and makes the case for increased action and greater investment on physical activity for health, environmental, economic and other wider outcomes.

5.21 The Plan represents Scotland's long term physical activity implementation policy. It adapts the Toronto Charter's seven best investments that work to promote physical activity and presents these in the Scottish context under five delivery themes: environment, workplace settings, healthcare settings, education settings and sport and active recreation.

5.22 The Sport & PE in Schools programme is a 'whole school' approach to increasing physical activity in children in Scotland, prioritising both regular physical education classes built into the curriculum and enhanced extra-curricular opportunities to engage in sport and physical activity through the Active Schools programme.

5.23 The aim of the programme is to deliver the PE commitment: that every school child in Scotland will benefit from at least two hours of PE per week in primary school and two sessions per week in secondary school. Active Schools is the national network providing opportunities for children and young people to participate in sport before, during and after the school day.

5.24 To deliver the PE programme, £5.8 million has been made available by sportscotland and Education Scotland over the two years to 2013/14 to add to the resource already invested by Local Authorities. sportscotland have invested £3.4 million through local authorities with Education Scotland supplementing that with a £2.4 million package of national initiatives to increase the support available to schools and teachers. This has supported a network of local authority PE lead officers, a programme of Professional Learning for teachers, a PE school grants fund and the roll out of Scottish Disability Sport's inclusive PE programme.

5.25 Furthermore, in December 2013, it was announced that Education Scotland and sportscotland will provide continued investment of £5.8 million over 2014-15 to 2015-16 to support schools to deliver high quality learning experiences in PE. This funding will assist Local Authorities in maintaining the quantity, and continuing to improve the quality, of PE provision in schools, ensuring that all children and young people have the opportunity to develop the fundamental competencies and skills necessary to participate in a wide range of physical activity and sport.

5.26 In addition to these key national legacy programmes, embedded in existing sport and physical activity policy, other legacy programmes are designed to build on the festival atmosphere and wider community and cultural celebrations associated with the Games. Games for Scotland is managed by EventScotland, and provides local authorities with up to £10,000 to help put on a community event, giving local people the chance to try out Commonwealth Games-themed sports and cultural activities, particularly around dance.

5.27 The Big Lottery Fund's BIG 2014 Communities Fund is a funding programme helping to create a legacy from the Commonwealth Games in communities across Scotland. The programme makes available grants of £300 to £2000 to local sports clubs, voluntary and community organisations, community councils and schools who want to take part or volunteer in physical activity or sport. The grants can be used to cover coaching costs, taster sessions and open days, equipment purchases, school-club links and outreach work, sports kit, and venue hire. BIG is investing £6.3 million in this programme.

Improve the Active Infrastructure (People and Places)

5.28 Improving the places where physical activity takes place is a key element of the PAIP, but there are also additional legacy programmes focussed on improving Scotland's active infrastructure. Community Sport Hubs provide homes for local clubs and sport organisations, based in local facilities like sport centres, community centres, the natural environment and schools. sportscotland are working with all 32 local authorities across Scotland to ensure at least 150 are in place by 2016.

5.29 The Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund is a £10 million fund managed by sportscotland. It is for community projects to help create or improve places where local people can go to get active, places like new skate parks, outdoor adventure facilities and walking routes. Grants of up to £100,000 are available to help contribute to the costs to create or upgrade a facility, space or place. In the first three funding rounds, over 100 projects were supported.

5.30 Enhancing the people side of Scotland's active infrastructure is the focus of the Supporting Coaches and Volunteers legacy programme. This programme is designed to help the Scottish Governing Bodies of the 17 sports in the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games have coaches, volunteers and officials sufficient in quantity and quality to help widen and sustain participation and leave a well-defined performance pathway in their sport.

Improve Scottish Sporting Success

5.31 sportscotland provide additional funding and support to Scotland's high performance athletes to help deliver individual and team success at the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and future major sporting events. Further, they support coaches and volunteers to ensure sports participants of all abilities are supported by a range of well-trained people.

5.32 sportscotland's investment into the institute of sport network in the lead up to the Glasgow Games is designed to ensure that high performance sport has better structures and support than ever before. The sportscotland institute of sport experts are supporting all 17 Games sports and their athletes across a range of disciplines, including: sports medicine, physiotherapy, performance lifestyle, programme design, sports science, strength and conditioning, and talent.

5.33 Heading into new Olympic, Paralympic and Commonwealth Games cycles, experts at the sportscotland institute of sport will continue to work with sports and athletes to build on the momentum generated by the home Games.

What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline

5.34 Scotland has experienced broadly stable levels of sports participation and physical activity in the adult and child population since 2008. Some small fluctuations in percentages are apparent annually, but there are few statistically significant changes since 2008. The active indicators data are available in full in Annex 2.

5.35 However, there are variations between groups and some (limited) changing trends over time. There are signs of a decline in children's sports participation in recent years, though the change since the baseline year of 2008 is not statistically significant. Further data will be required to determine whether this is a longer term trend.

5.36 Conversely, the percentage of adults walking more than 30 minutes for recreation has increased significantly since 2008. The greatest population health gains are derived from shifting inactive groups to some level of activity[38], and walking is widely considered an ideal introduction to greater physical activity amongst sedentary groups.

5.37 The Scottish Health Survey shows that of the five domains of physical activity – housework, DIY/gardening, manual occupational work, walking and sport and exercise – the two most important categories in terms of time spent are sport and exercise and walking[39].

Figure 5.2. Relative contribution of sport and other domains to total hours of physical activity in a week in Scotland, 2012 (percentage of mean hours per week)

5.38 Scotland's experience is typical among middle and high income countries, where there is a long term trajectory of reduced demand for physical activity in household and occupational domains[40], a trend which is anticipated to continue[41]. Thus, the relative importance of active travel (walking and cycling) and sport and exercise as components of overall population physical activity is likely to increase.

5.39 Broadly speaking, the age and gender patterns of sports participation and physical activity are similar for children and adults in Scotland. Among children, participation is higher among males than females. The gender gap between boys and girls sports participation has reduced from 6.4% in 2008 to 1.8% in 2012, though this is partly due to a decline in boys' sports participation.

5.40 Amongst adults, these age and gender patterns in sports participation in Scotland have largely remained stable since 2008. Sports participation and physical activity levels are higher among men and tend to decline with age. Sports participation, including walking, is high amongst adults aged 16-44 (83-84%) declining from age 45-54. The only notable age related trend since 2008 is a gradual increase in participation amongst the oldest age group, those aged 75+, from 40% in 2008 to 44% in 2012 (about half of which is accounted for by walking).

5.41 Furthermore, certain groups – teenage girls and older age groups – stand out as having particularly low levels of both sport participation and physical activity. For example, while overall, 70% of those aged 2-15 were active at the recommended level in 2012, only 45% of girls aged 13-15 reported sufficient physical activity to meet the guidelines. Amongst the population aged 16+, 62% meet the recommended physical activity guidelines, and this falls to 25% of those aged over 75. These relatively low levels of physical activity among teenage girls and older age groups are noted in other countries.

5.42 Sports participation and physical activity also show patterns by socio-economic variables (area deprivation and household income). Among adults, both sports participation and physical activity levels are highest among the highest income groups, steadily declining to be lowest in the lowest income groups. Participation and activity levels are highest in least deprived areas and lowest in most deprived areas.

5.43 An exception to this social patterning is physical activity amongst children and young people. Unlike formal participation in sport, there is no clear patterning of children's physical activity levels by area deprivation or household income. This may be due to things like costs associated with playing some sports contributing to social patterning, but this being offset by higher levels of other types of physical activity in lower income households and more deprived areas – for example, active travel to school.

5.44 PE in schools makes a clear difference to the levels of physical activity amongst children and young people. In 2012, school-based activities added 9 percentage points to the proportion of children meeting physical activity guidelines – with some indication that this contribution has increased in recent years.

Figure 5.3. Percentage of children active at the recommended level (including and excluding school based activities) 2008-2012

5.45 More advanced analysis[42] can help us understand the inter-relationships between different variables. Results indicate that age, disability and economic status are the most important factors in levels of physical activity.

5.46 Crucially, walking acts as an important leveller in variations in participation among adults. For all the individual variations listed above (by age, gender, are deprivation and household income) when walking is excluded, participation gaps widen.

Table 5.4 Effect of walking on variations in sports participation

% who Participate in Sport – Excluding Walking

% who Participate in Sport – Including Walking

Difference %

Age

16-24

75+

71

21

84

44

13

23

Gender

Male

Female

57

46

77

72

20

26

Household Income

Highest band (£40k+)

Lowest band (>£6k-£10k)

73

35

89

64

16

29

SIMD

Least deprived

Most deprived

62

40

81

65

19

25

5.47 Awareness of physical activity recommendations increased between 2008 and 2011, though it remains that a minority of the population (27%) reported knowing the recommended guidelines. The Physical Activity Guidelines were updated by the UK's four Chief Medical Officers in 2011, with new guidelines for early years, older adults and on sedentary behaviour added for the first time. In addition, the core message to adults aged 19-64 was updated to recommend that over a week activity should add up to at least 150 minutes.

5.48 For the purposes of this Games legacy evaluation, we are planning new analysis to test the hypothesis of a link between major events and sports participation (the demonstration effect mentioned in paragraph 4.9). There is already some evidence that frequency of sports participation has increased in Scotland over the last five years.[43] There are increasingly more adults participating in sport on 15 or more days in the month and a decreasing number who participate on fewer than 15 days per month. If a 'demonstration effect' operates in relation to the 2014 Commonwealth Games, we would expect this trend to continue, and possibly accelerate.

Figure 5.5. Frequency of participation by adults who took part in sport in the previous 4 weeks 2007-2012

5.49 Furthermore, attitudinal change towards being active will be captured through a new question in the Scottish Health Survey from 2013. This will ask people whether they think the Games have influenced their propensity to take part in sport[44]. We will examine differences between sports participants and non-participants, and provide some evidence on whether any 'festival effect' reaches those who do not take part in sport.

5.50 Evidence suggests that the potential for harnessing any demonstration effect is weakened if the population hold negative views towards the event in question. Overall public engagement[45] with the Commonwealth Games in Scotland is high and has increased year on year since 2011[46]. If a demonstration effect occurs, we might expect there to be an association between sports participation and engagement with the Games – with engagement higher among those who take part in sport. We intend to test this through analysis of the 2013 Scottish Household Survey which includes questions on Games engagement and sports participation.

5.51 We have examined the relationship between engagement and participation using 2012 Scottish Household Survey data on attitudes towards the London 2012 Olympic Games[47]. In 2012, 76% of adults in Scotland followed, or intended to follow, the Olympic Games[48]. The most common method of following the Olympic Games was watching on TV, accounting for 71% of adults.

5.52 More advanced analysis[49] gives greater insight into the factors related to engagement with the Olympic Games in Scotland. This analysis shows that men were more likely to follow the Games than women and older age groups were more likely to follow on TV than younger age groups. Sports participants twice as likely to follow the Olympic Games as non-participants.

5.53 More active engagement with the Games, attending ticketed events, for example, was lower (7% of Scottish adults). When more active engagement[50] with the Olympic Games is examined, the relationship with sports participation is even stronger. Sports participants in Scotland were more than three times more likely to be actively engaged in the Olympics than non-participants.

5.54 It is plausible to expect these findings will be replicated in relation to engagement with the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, and that active engagement will be higher than for London 2012, given their location closer to home. Active engagement[51] in the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is growing and reached 32% in 2013.

5.55 This suggests the conditions in Scotland are conducive to the operation of a demonstration effect in relation to the Commonwealth Games. We will assess this through analysis of behaviour change over time of participants, and assess whether there is evidence of increased frequency of sports participation amongst those engaged with the Commonwealth Games.

5.56 It is important to note that the above analysis will help assess whether there has been a boost to sporting participation amongst those already engaged in sport to some extent, though this may be as little as once in 4 weeks. It is difficult to know to what extent all sports participants are sufficiently active to meet physical activity recommendations – this is likely to vary considerably between different groups. Given the small proportion of the population who are very highly active (and therefore at potential risk of injury), it is plausible that increased frequency of participation will have an overall positive effect on population physical activity levels.

5.57 However, reaching the fifth of the population with very low levels of activity will be more challenging and a focus of the long term legacy strategy efforts, requiring the actions set out in the National Physical Activity Implementation Plan. This is likely to be a group with little emotional connection to sport, and therefore unlikely to be affected by the demonstration type effects described above. Further, evidence from the GoWell East baseline survey also shows that very inactive groups in this survey include people whose health is not good enough to take part in sport.

5.58 In terms of infrastructure, indicators suggest an enhancement of the sports infrastructure in Scotland since 2008. The numbers of people employed in the sports and leisure sector has increased; volunteering in sports is stable and figures from sportscotland indicate an increase in the number of UKCC qualified coaches since 2008. Furthermore, there are increasing numbers of Community Sport Hubs and increased use of and levels of user satisfaction with local authority leisure facilities – from 82% in 2008 to 88% in 201.

5.59 Finally, the standard international measure of elite sporting success is the number of medals won in international competition[52], and a new indicator has been included in the active indicator set to track elite performance (see Annex 1). Team Scotland is predicted to be the largest Scottish Commonwealth Games team to date with more than 202 athletes aiming for a target medal haul of more than 33, to top the total of 29 at the 2006 Games in Melbourne.[53]

Prospective Assessment and Summary

5.60 The evidence on a link between major events and sports participation and physical activity remains inconclusive. Increases in sports participation amongst certain groups and under certain conditions do seem plausible. However, the extent to which boosts to sports participation can be sustained over the longer term is more uncertain.

5.61 Tackling population activity levels is a long term, generational public health challenge that will require concerted effort. It is unlikely that the Games will have an impact on population level participation in and of itself. Rather, the Commonwealth Games active legacy ambitions are specifically embedded in the key national programme under the Active legacy theme: the national Physical Activity Implementation Plan (PAIP).

5.62 The data also demonstrates the importance of walking for physical activity and the need to target particular groups. The PAIP includes a new Walking Strategy for Scotland that will be launched in June 2014.

5.63 In terms of infrastructure, the proportion of new build venues for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games has been less than for other major sporting events and most are already open to the public, schools, clubs and sports bodies. This bodes well for a sustainable infrastructure for sport and physical activity beyond the Games.

5.64 A prospective assessment for Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is presented in the final chapter.

6. Connected

6.1 The Scottish Government Legacy Plan includes the 'connected' theme. This theme aims to use the Games to strengthen connections at home and internationally through culture and learning to enrich people's lives. The following three intermediate outcomes are sought under the theme:

- Improve the perception of Scotland as a creative nation, producing world class cultural experiences

- Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences

- Enhance young people's learning and everyone's understanding and celebration of our and other countries' cultures.

6.2 As discussed in Chapter 2, the key questions for evaluation under the connected theme are:

- What effect have the Games had on the cultural sector and cultural engagement?

- What effect have the Games had on civic pride?

The Evidence: What do we know?

6.3 The evidence presented in this section is published in the fully referenced evidence review that accompanies this report[54].

6.4 There is a long history of cultural and educational programmes being developed alongside major multi-sports events, especially the Summer Olympics. The Commonwealth Games have a more recent history of associated cultural plans, though events like the Queen's Baton Relay and the opening and closing ceremonies have featured since the first Commonwealth Games in Hamilton, Canada in 1930.

6.5 Despite the long history of cultural events running alongside multi-sports events, the evidence review found little published research on the cultural and educational aspects of major events. For example, a recent editorial of Cultural Trends suggests, the cultural aspect of the Olympics specifically "remains consistently overlooked in games evaluation frameworks and there is little, or no, objective evidence of past culture-specific achievements"[55].

6.6 There is a wider literature on major cultural events which proposes that cultural events and festivals have grown in importance since the 1970s as vehicles for improving the image of cities, adding vibrancy to city life and enhancing civic pride among citizens.[56].

6.7 As set out in the flourishing chapter, there is some evidence that the overall perception of a host city or nation can be enhanced following a successful major event. Little evidence was found on the perceptions of the cultural aspect of a host area's reputation, specifically. As with other aspects of legacy, the evidence is clear that any enhancement of reputation is not automatic, but contingent on a number of factors, including a successful event and long term strategies of reputation management.

6.8 Long term reputational benefits are less likely, evidence suggests, if there is a mismatch between a city or nation's identity and values as projected through official channels, and the realities as experienced on the ground by residents and visitors. The evidence review suggests the potential for a successful event and associated boost to international reputation is partly dependent on the event being embraced by the people of the host city and nation.

6.9 Again, the evidence is limited on the extent to which major Games-related cultural programmes can produce world class cultural experiences. The evaluation of the 2012 Cultural Olympiad concludes that it raised the bar internationally for cultural programming, with unprecedented scale and diversity of work, the championing and production of new cultural works that would not have happened otherwise, and significant partnerships with creative practitioners in the Creative Industries sector.

6.10 Research on Scotland's London 2012 Cultural Programme found that it positively contributed to new collaborations at a strategic and project level (though not necessarily without challenges). This resulted in new cultural works which received international acclaim and subsequent international productions.

6.11 The evidence review finds the evaluation of the 2012 Olympiad to be one of the few sources of evidence on cultural engagement enabled through large scale Games-related cultural programming. It reports that the Olympiad resulted in 43.4 million public engagement experiences (including attendances, participation and volunteers), although other publications cite different total attendance figures. This highlights the challenge of agreeing the limits of what is included in such large scale, long-running programmes run and funded by multiple different organisations.

6.12 Some survey evidence cited in the review suggests participants in the 2012 Cultural Olympiad are more likely to attend cultural activities in the future as a result of taking part in the programme. It is not clear, however, to what extent attendance was widened to those who do not typically engage in cultural activities.

6.13 It is clear the range of cultural programming significantly extended the geographic reach of opportunities to engage in the 2012 Olympics and related festivals. The evidence review cites some attitudinal data from audience research carried out during Scotland's 2012 cultural programme which found widespread agreement that cultural projects can help the local community come together.

6.14 There is some limited evidence in the review that positive public attitudes towards a major event can be translated into genuine widespread enthusiasm and civic pride, which can, at least during the time of the event and its aftermath, lead to a 'feelgood' factor within the host city or nation.

6.15 Although it is common for major sporting events to have educational and learning programmes linked to the event, the review found almost no evidence on their effectiveness or long term impact. Get Set, the London 2012 educational programme, successfully reached almost all schools across Britain, with deeper engagement in two-thirds of schools, though the review cites some question marks over the longer-term sustainability of such learning programmes.

Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes

6.16 A range of legacy programmes and investments have been created to extend the opportunities for people and communities to connect and engage with the Games through culture and learning. These are set out in Figure 6.1, below. The programmes include those which deliver, fund or encourage cultural activity, those which use the Games to enhance learning opportunities for children and young people and those which offer leadership opportunities for young people.

Figure 6.1. Connected Legacy Programmes

Programme

Lead Organisations

Cultural activities and engagement

Glasgow 2014 Cultural Programme

Glasgow 2014 , Creative Scotland and Glasgow Life

Queen's Baton Relay and Ceremonies

Glasgow 2014

Get Scotland Dancing

Creative Scotland

Celebrate

BIG Lottery Fund, Creative Scotland, Heritage Lottery Fund and sportscotland.

UWS Digital Commonwealth Project

University of the West of Scotland

Learning and leadership opportunities

Game On Scotland

Scottish Government, Education Scotland, Glasgow 2014 and Glasgow City Council.

33fifty Commonwealth Youth Leadership Programme

Royal Commonwealth Society (RCS)

Youth Legacy Ambassadors

Young Scot

Young Scot Legacy 2014 Rewards

Young Scot

Young Ambassadors

sportscotland and Youth Sport Trust through the Active Schools network

Lead 2014

sportscotland, Youth Sport Trust and Glasgow 2014

Support a Second Team

Sportscotland, Glasgow 2014, Education Scotland, CGAs, Local Authorities

Game Changer Awards

Universities Scotland, Colleges Scotland, Scottish Funding Council

World class cultural experiences and cultural engagement

6.17 There are considerable connections and contributions between the legacy programmes and the sought connected outcomes, especially those on producing world class cultural experiences and increasing cultural engagement. For example, while the intention is for the Glasgow 2014 Cultural Programme to result in new world-class cultural productions, equally it is intended to offer significant opportunities to engage in the Games and its related festivals and as such has been specifically designed to reach every part of Scotland.

6.18 The Glasgow 2014 Cultural Programme is a key part of the Games experience for spectators and visitors. Running until the end of August 2014, it will showcase Scottish culture alongside creative work from across the Commonwealth, reaching its peak at Games-time. There are two strands: a Scotland-wide programme called Culture 2014, and a Games-time celebration in Glasgow running alongside the sporting action, Festival 2014. The Glasgow 2014 Cultural Programme is a partnership between the Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee, Glasgow Life, and Creative Scotland through the National Lottery.

6.19 To support the Cultural Programme, the Glasgow 2014 Cultural Programme Open Fund was launched in December 2012, with the deadline of 22 Feb 2013. There was extremely high demand, with the event attracting 497 individuals and organisations from Scotland's cultural and creative sector to bid for the £4.5m Cultural Programme for awards that could range from £20,000 up to £300,000. At the time of writing, 39 projects have been successful in their funding application.

6.20 Furthermore, on the 26 April 2013, the New Music 2014 Biennial was announced in both London and Glasgow. Building on the success of the Cultural Olympiad programme New Music 2012, the New Music 2014 Biennial is intended to result in a world-class programme of commissions of new music across all genres and performances throughout the UK. It will be broadcast by BBC Radio 3 and released digitally.

6.21 Celebrate was announced on 30 April 2013. Celebrate is a joint venture involving the BIG Lottery Fund, Creative Scotland, Heritage Lottery Fund and sportscotland, of a £4 million lottery fund which provides opportunities for people across Scotland to celebrate the Commonwealth Games and/or the people, places and culture of the Commonwealth. Celebrate offers grants of up to £10,000 to community groups, local authorities and schools across Scotland. The last grants will be awarded in December 2014.

6.22 In May 2013, an announcement was made about GENERATION, which will showcase and celebrate the international success of contemporary visual art that has developed in Scotland over the past twenty-five years, and make it available and accessible to the widest possible audiences across the country. A series of exhibitions and new commissions will be staged in more than 60 venues across the country during the summer of 2014.

6.23 The Cultural Programme is being externally evaluated and some early high level data will be available in the first post Games legacy report of autumn 2015. The evaluation will provide evidence on the scale and reach of the programme, participation and attendance at programme events, the extent to which new audiences are developed, international connections enabled and wider media impact. In addition, the evaluation will address questions around the process of the cultural programme including the strength and quality of partnerships involved in delivery and the wider impact of the programme on the arts and Creative Industries in Scotland.

6.24 Alongside the Cultural Programme are the Ceremonies and Queen's Baton Relay (QBR). These are key parts of the lead up to and the start and end of each Commonwealth Games. They are delivered by each Organising Committee and give an opportunity to showcase Scotland and the Games across the Commonwealth. The QBR is now on its way around the Commonwealth and the route the QBR will take when it reaches the UK has now been confirmed. The details of the Opening and Closing Ceremonies of the Games. will be announced closer to the time.

Young people and learning

6.25 The official education programme around the Games is 'Game On Scotland'. It provides a platform to inspire and engage young people throughout Scotland and beyond. It is designed to enable educators to use the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games as an inspiring, motivating, relevant and fun context for learning across the curriculum and for all ages.

6.26 Since its launch on 1 May 2013, Game On Scotland has seen a steady increase in interest and involvement by schools across Scotland and the Commonwealth. In addition, Glow, the Scottish schools intranet, is helping to engage schools in remote locations, particularly through 'Glow meets'. Education Scotland is undertaking an evaluation of Game on Scotland which will provide evidence for the first post Games legacy report in 2015.

6.27 In addition to Game on Scotland, there are a range of ambassador and leadership programmes aimed at young people. Some are broadly focused and aim to gain a lasting legacy for the young people and their communities such as the Youth Legacy Ambassadors led by Young Scot. Others are more specifically targeted e.g. Young Ambassadors which focuses on raising the profile or sport and physical activity in schools . While 33fifty is a programme for 100 young people from across the Commonwealth and Scotland. All of these programmes are collecting monitoring information and some will undertake self-evaluations.

What's the Current Position? Connected data and research to date

6.28 This section sets out the key data and research to date under the connected theme since the baseline year of 2008. This includes data from the legacy indicators (see Annex 2) and relevant findings from the Go Well East baseline study.

6.29 Broadly, the picture described by the connected indicators show Scotland continuing to be a place with a rich culture and where there is a relatively high cultural participation and attendance rate. It also shows that Scottish people have a high level of interest in the Games, which has increased over time.

6.30 The main indicator which is being used to track whether perceptions of Scotland as a creative nation improve is the Nations Brand Index (NBISM). The NBISM is how Scottish Government tracks and monitors Scotland's reputation as part of Scotland's National Performance Framework and contains six dimensions, one of which is cultural. The Culture dimension of the NBISM tests three ideas of a nation's cultural reputation: its cultural history and heritage; its contemporary culture, e.g. popular culture and new creative ideas; and its sporting prowess.

6.31 Since 2008 the relative position of Scotland in terms of the cultural dimension has improved by one place, with Scotland being ranked 17th in 2012 out of fifty nations. There was no sizeable improvement in Scotland's score and the improvement of the ranking is largely due to the small relative changes in scores across the sample of evaluated countries. However, alongside its smaller nation comparators, Scotland performs well in the Culture dimension and is the only one from this set of countries to feature in the Culture Dimensions Top 20.

6.32 The overall evidence from the NBISM is that international perceptions of nations are, in general, remarkably stable. Of the six dimensions of reputation measured, culture is one of Scotland's reputational strengths, though within this, it is notably Scotland's traditional cultural heritage that is widely recognised, rather than its contemporary culture. The international spotlight on Glasgow during the Games – and the 2014 Cultural Programme – may potentially raise awareness of the more contemporary aspects of culture in Scotland.

6.33 We also know from the evidence on reputation that perceptions depend on there being substance to the claims being made – in this instance, that the cultural experiences produced as part of the Cultural Programme are genuinely of world-class quality.

6.34 There is a long running debate within cultural studies on how to assess quality within cultural works. The principal approach to this has long been peer review. Media coverage, awards and critical reception are commonly used as proxy measures. As part of the programme of research on the Cultural Programme partners intend to commission a quality evaluation of key elements of Festival 2014. Considering quality in a rounded way – incorporating the perspectives of peer assessment, audience review and the reflections of producers – should help move forward this long running debate and produce insights of wider applicability to cultural organisations.

6.35 The level of public engagement with the Games is important for a number of reasons. Widespread public engagement with the Games is a sought outcome in its own right – the development of broader cultural programmes with wide reach across the country is intended to extend both the geographical reach of opportunities to engage and to develop the audience for the Games amongst those who are not interested in sport.

6.36 As discussed in the Active chapter, overall public engagement in the Games in Scotland is high and has increased since data was first collected in 2011. In 2013 at the Scotland level 79% indicated their intention to follow the Games, either by watching on television, visiting Glasgow, or buying tickets for events (up from 67% in 2011). The figure for intention to follow the Games in Glasgow in 2013 was 74%.

6.37 The Go Well East data provides data on attitudes towards the Games amongst those most directly affected by the preparation and delivery of the event. Though not strictly comparable with the national data due to survey differences, the results suggest a higher level of engagement with the Games amongst East End residents. In 2012, over half of respondents (58%) expressed their intention to attend a ticketed event, and 78% planned to at least follow the Games on television or radio or online.

6.38 Beyond public engagement with the Games, the scale and reach of the 2014 Cultural Programme is hoped to impact on engagement with culture in Scotland. The indicator set shows that cultural engagement in Scotland is already high, with nine in ten adults either taking part in creative activities in their own lives or attending cultural places like museums, galleries or cinema in 2012.

6.39 The data also show some signs of increasing engagement in culture since 2008, though small improvements to the survey question wording may have contributed to some of the increase seen between 2011 and 2012.

6.40 The Cultural Programme aims to inspire both participation in cultural activities and attendance at cultural events and places. Notable elements of the programme aimed at inspiring participation include Get Scotland Dancing and the Big Big Sing. We will continue to track both participation and attendance at various cultural and arts activities through the connected indicators, and the evaluation of the Cultural Programme will provide more detailed evidence of participation in funded activities, including participation that may not be captured through the Scottish Household Survey – the participation of performers, artists and creative practitioners, producers, volunteers and outreach activity.

6.41 Within this broad picture of cultural engagement, we might expect to see any impact of the 2014 Cultural Programme to feature more on attendance at the arts – especially those genres that feature strongly in the programme. Figure 6.2, below, shows this derived indicator on arts attendance – in Scotland in 2012, 61% attended the arts at least once in the previous 12 months, with Glasgow higher at 63%. More frequent arts attendance is lower – attendance 3-4 times a year at the cultural events highlighted below was 40% in Scotland in 2012 (39% in Glasgow).

Figure 6.2 Attendance at specific arts events in the last 12 months, Scotland & Glasgow 2012

6.42 As with participation in sport and physical activity, engagement in culture varies among different groups, most notably by age, education, area deprivation and disability.

6.43 Finally, the evidence review points to some limited evidence that major events can boost civic pride. The extent to which the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games contribute to any change in civic pride is one of the six key questions we expect to address. Early pre-Games data indicates that just under a fifth of people anticipate that one benefit is Scots will feel proud following the Games, with the corresponding figure for Glasgow rising from 7% in 2012 to 17% in 2013. It is important to note that this is a spontaneous response to an open question about benefits from the Games rather than a direct question about specific benefits.

6.44 The GoWell East study measures civic pride among study respondents by asking to what extent the statements "I feel proud of this local area" and "I feel proud of the City of Glasgow" apply to them. 60% of participants expressed a great deal or fair amount of pride in their local area, with 87% saying the same of Glasgow. Only 20% expressed a 'great deal' of pride in their local area compared to over half of respondents expressing great pride in Glasgow. This indicates there is scope for improvement in levels of civic pride in the East End. This will be measured again in Sweep 2 and provide data on the extent to which people's sense of civic pride has changed immediately after the Games.

Prospective Assessment and Summary

6.45 Scotland already has world-leading cultural strengths: the Edinburgh Festivals are internationally renowned, Glasgow has a long history of championing culture and its cultural sector and importance as a creative economy hub have grown since it was designated European City of Culture in 1990.[57] Nevertheless, the evaluation of the Cultural Olympiad concluded that even within the context of existing internationally excellent standards of cultural programming, the London 2012 Cultural Programme raised the bar.

6.46 Public engagement with and support for the Games do seem high in Scotland, in Glasgow and among residents of the East End. There are already some signs of the impact of this interest, for example on ticket sales and interest in volunteering. The impact of this engagement on wider outcomes remains to be seen.

6.47 The evaluations underway of the 2014 Cultural Programme, and of the official education programme, Game On Scotland, will provide evidence to inform the legacy evaluation and go some way to filling the existing gap in evidence around cultural and educational elements of major events.

6.48 A prospective assessment for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is presented in the final chapter.

7. Discussion and Prospective Assessment

7.1 The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games are on track to be delivered on time and on budget. At the time of writing, all permanent venues have been refurbished or constructed, the Athletes' Village is complete and most venues are in public use. Furthermore, 94% of publicly available tickets have been sold, over 15,000 clyde-siders are in training, the Culture 2014 programme is underway and the Festival 2014 programme is being finalised.

7.2 The Scottish Government and partners also have aspirations to bring tangible and lasting physical, social and economic benefits to the people of Scotland. There are now over 50 national legacy programmes and a further 80 programmes and projects in Glasgow City. Together these programmes, and the hosting of the Games themselves, should help generate legacy.

7.3 The accompanying evidence review[58], suggests that hosting major events can create a legacy, but there is no 'automatic' effect. Successful legacies are well planned, well delivered, and embedded in existing strategies and policies. The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games partners, and the wider public and third sectors in Scotland have been purposively planning legacy since 2009, So, in theory, we should expect to achieve tangible outcomes.

7.4 It is too early to establish whether legacy outcomes are being achieved. Rather this chapter draws together a prospective assessment based on the accompanying evidence review on major sporting events, the early evaluation data, what we know of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games legacy investments and programmes.

Flourishing

7.5 Overall, the evidence on previous events, and the economic analysis to date, suggest that the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games should make a short-term contribution to the Scottish economy.

7.6 The early modelling work estimates that the £500 million spending on construction and refurbishment of Games venues and the Athletes' Village over the six years leading to 2014 will have supported, on average, around 1,000 jobs and contributed £52 million to Scotland's GVA in each of those years. While this public sector investment has an opportunity cost, the pace provided by the Games arguably brought forward and secured public spending.

7.7 Ticket sales and procurement data also suggest that there will be a boost to businesses and tourism in 2014 as a result of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. It is estimated that for each £100 million of visitor spending in 2014, around 1,300 FTE jobs will be supported and will contribute £45 million to Scottish GVA.

7.8 Scale may be important for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. Although the evidence suggests that the effects of hosting major sporting events are likely to be focused on a specific geographical area, this may be important for the overall economy in Scotland. The city of Glasgow accounts for 17% of national economic output and 11% of the population, so increases in output or employment in the area could have an effect nationally.

7.9 The Games have provided (and will provide) employment opportunities across a number of sectors, although this is, inevitably, short-term in many cases. Nevertheless, such short-term employment may reduce the distance from permanent labour market opportunities. The short-term nature of employment associated with both preparation and hosting is viewed both positively (as important experience and skills), and negatively (as temporary and low paid) in the literature.

7.10 There is some evidence that employment opportunities can reach the long-term unemployed, including in host areas, if effectively planned and targeted. Games partners have been working to leverage legacy from infrastructure investments and contracting in terms of employment, training and volunteering. In sum, up to 5,000 opportunities are available across national employment and training programmes for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. Additional opportunities are already secured in Glasgow. The uptake of programmes is encouraging, but it is too early to make an assessment of their value. The evaluations of these programmes will provide more information in 2015.

7.11 Early findings from the community longitudinal study in the East End of Glasgow (the GoWell East study) show that 7% of respondents aged 16-64 years old had undertaken Games-related paid employment and just over 15% Games-related training, apprenticeships or work experience in the period 2011-12. In this area, the employment rate is lower than the city average, workless households are twice as common as elsewhere in Scotland, while many of those out of work have been actively looking for work and are dissatisfied with their current situation. Partners in the area are working to ensure local people benefit from employment and training opportunities.

7.12 There is evidence that demonstrates some positive effects from volunteering as a result of hosting the Games. A small body of evidence suggests that those who gain volunteering positions at major sporting events tend to be those who already have employable skills, and also tend to be regular volunteers at other events. Early indications are that this is also the case in the Glasgow context, but there has also been a concerted effort through the Legacy 2014 Volunteer Support programme and the Glasgow Host City Volunteer Programme to target those who may face barriers to volunteering. More information will be available on volunteers and volunteer programmes in a report to be published in 2015.

7.13 The available evidence on the plausibility of a lasting economic legacy is very limited. What we can say is that it appears to depend on a step change to economic participation, productivity or international reputation at the national and city level. The evidence suggests that the Games-related activities could help to increase participation, by helping local people to gain skills and experience. The Games could, in theory, help boost productivity over the long-term by increasing business capacity and networks.

7.14 The evidence shows that some cities have seen increased business activity and tourism as a result of a boost to international reputation from hosting a successful major sporting event. However, this is not a foregone conclusion. Perceptions of Scotland and Glasgow have remained relatively stable since 2008. Given the evidence, the expectation of a successful event and the programmes underway we should, in theory, observe an improvement in international reputation. We will be tracking this through the Nations Brand Index (NBISM) and by monitoring online and social media.

7.15 In particular there may be scope for growing the events industry by using the Games infrastructure and developing skills base (paid and voluntary) to attract national and international events. There are early indications of success for Scotland and Glasgow, with numerous international and national events in the calendar that make use of the upgraded and new infrastructure before, and after, the Games.

Sustainable

7.16 The evidence review and the prospective assessment conducted by the GoWell East Team[59] suggest we should expect the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games to have an impact on the physical and social environment in the area of the East End of Glasgow where much of the Games investment – and crucially – the longer-term regeneration effort has occurred.

7.17 The evidence suggests that major sporting events can accelerate and extend regeneration plans, acting as catalysts for socio-economic development. However, these need to be linked to wider, longer-term plans and have community engagement at their heart. The evidence does highlight potential problems of displacement and widening inequality among host populations, although these concerns vary widely across events. In some cases the use of vacant and derelict land and remediation of contaminated land has minimised negative impacts upon existing communities.

7.18 The Games investment in the East End of Glasgow is embedded into broader regeneration strategies and has made use of derelict and remediated land. The differences between regeneration activity in the Clyde Gateway area and other recent regeneration efforts are the scale of infrastructure development (including land and transport works), and the focus on engaging employers and linking them to local labour[60].

7.19 The data already show changes in the levels of remediated land, a decrease in vacant and derelict land, creation of green space and construction of business space. Almost half of respondents in the GoWell East study say their neighbourhood has improved over the past three years. This is a larger proportion than in other similar deprived regeneration areas in the city where the dominant perception is of stability.

7.20 This is not, however, just about the physical infrastructure. Regeneration in Glasgow over recent years has been based on a more holistic, integrated approach and does seem to be underpinned by explicit community engagement[61]. There are a wide range of legacy programmes underway, some targeted at the East End, some are national or city-wide but cover this area. These include employability programmes, cultural and physical activity programmes. GoWell East will examine changes in physical activity and wellbeing, experience and outcomes of employment, learning and volunteering and engagement with legacy programmes as the study progresses.

7.21 There is limited evidence on whether major sporting events can strengthen and empower communities. Thus, it is notable that the GoWell East baseline survey suggests that residents have a relatively strong sense of being able to influence decisions in the local area. More than a third of respondents agree that they can influence decisions in the local area, higher than for Glasgow as a whole. Engagement with the Games is also high in the area, with over three quarters supportive of the Games.

7.22 Finally, on the broader sustainable theme, major sporting events have set high environmental standards and have been used to showcase innovative sustainable designs and practices in the last decade. The evidence review suggests that it is not straightforward to generate buy-in and implement high standards. However, issues of sustainability have been carefully considered in the preparation for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. There are some early signs that a knowledge transfer effect for sustainability standards may happen for major capital projects. This will be assessed again in 2015.

Active

7.23 The evidence on the extent to which an 'active legacy' might be achieved as a result of hosting major sporting events is mixed and generally of low quality.

7.24 The evidence review highlights two key issues related to legacy from major sporting events and their sports infrastructure legacies. Firstly, the long term use of major event infrastructure and, secondly, the importance of grassroots sports infrastructure.

7.25 The problems of insufficient long-term planning for subsequent use of major stadia, the 'white elephant' phenomenon, is a long-standing one in the literature. The evidence suggests that the use of established infrastructure, early planning for post-event use and early public use of facilities, should, in theory, result in the sustainable use of venues.

7.26 The proportion of new build venues for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games has been less than for other major sporting events, with 70% of venues already in place at the time of bidding to host the event. Most new and refurbished facilities are already open to the public, schools, clubs and sports bodies for use in advance of the Games. This bodes well for a sustainable infrastructure legacy in Scotland. The use, and profile of users, in Games venues is being monitored by partners.

7.27 The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and related legacy effort has supported national infrastructure investments beyond the Games venues, including Community Sport Hubs and the Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund. These investments are additional to infrastructure projects already underway across Scotland, including the upgrading of the school estate.

7.28 However, this is not just about built infrastructure. sportscotland are supporting the Scottish sports governing bodies for the 17 Commonwealth Games sports to ensure they have the coaches, volunteers and officials with the aim of widening and sustaining participation. This is crucial to capitalise on any post-event 'bounce'.

7.29 There are some signs of progress in Scotland since the 2008 baseline year. The active indicators show that the numbers of people employed in the sports and leisure sector has increased; volunteering in sports is stable; there has been an increase in the number of UKCC qualified coaches and levels of user satisfaction with local authority leisure facilities has increased. There are also recent indications that active Scots are becoming more active.

7.30 However, we know from the evidence that a long term active legacy is not just about sport. While sport is an important contributor to activity levels in Scotland, accounting for over a third of activity, walking accounts for a quarter. Crucially, walking acts as an important leveller in variations in participation among adults.

7.31 Further, evidence suggests that simply hosting a major sporting event does not, in and of itself, lead to automatic population shifts in physical activity. Increases in sports participation amongst certain groups and under certain conditions may be plausible (the demonstration effect), but a population shift is unlikely without genuine efforts to embed legacy aspirations into long-term policies.

7.32 Understanding this broader context, the Scottish Government and partners launched a new Physical Activity Implementation Plan in March 2014 entitled 'A More Active Scotland: Building a Legacy from the Commonwealth Games'. This Plan builds on the 2009 Legacy Strategy and on the internationally renowned Toronto Charter. The plan includes a new Walking Strategy, school programmes, prevention initiatives, public education and community-wide programs.

7.33 Finally, there is not a large literature on the effect of hosting a major event on the sporting performance of the host nation. A review of the literature on factors that influence international sporting success concluded that more than half the determinants of elite success identified are largely beyond the influence of government. However, evidence from London 2012 concluded that there is evidence that Great Britain's team medal performance was boosted by the UK hosting the Games. The performance development approach, coupled with enhanced scientific research and innovation and increased funding for elite sport, is considered to have contributed to that success.

Connected

7.34 There is currently limited evidence to help us assess what the long term impact of hosting a major event and its related festivals may be on cultural engagement and the culture sector.

7.35 There is some evidence that widening the range of opportunities to engage helps expand the audience at a major sporting event to those not interested in sport. Previous major sporting events have seen almost an equal number of people participate in the cultural events as the sporting events. Given the nature and scale of the investment in cultural programming we might expect to see high, and broad, levels of engagement in 2014.

7.36 There is also evidence that public engagement and interest in a major event is crucial for the success of the event itself and for other outcomes on enhanced reputation, increased sport participation and community engagement. The signs to date are that public interest in the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is high in Scotland, and has grown as the event draws closer.

7.37 Little empirical evidence exists on a link between major events and civic pride. The London 2012 meta-evaluation reports some evidence of increased civic pride related to the Cultural Olympiad. Wider research on civic pride suggests it can be an important element in developing sustainable, cohesive communities. We expect to address this in the Glasgow 2014 context. Questions on pride in city and neighbourhood have been included in relevant surveys.

7.38 Although Scotland already has well known international strengths in culture and festivals, there is some evidence that the scale and reach of cultural programmes associated with major Games can lead to development of the cultural and wider creative industries sector, for example through new partnerships at strategic and project level that can sustain beyond events. The Culture and Festival 2014 evaluation will be exploring this in detail.

7.39 Finally, there is very limited evidence on the value and effectiveness of learning and educational activities around major events, as they tend not to be fully evaluated. The planned evaluations of both the Cultural Programme and the official education programme, Game on Scotland, should help fill some of this gap in the evidence.

In summary

7.40 The Scottish Government (SG) and partners have designed an evaluation of Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and conducted an evidence review to learn lessons from previous events, to maximise the potential of legacy in Scotland and to provide intelligence for future bidders and hosts. SG and partners have responded to this evidence in the planning and delivery of legacy.

7.41 Given the long-term and explicit legacy planning for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and the evidence from previous major sporting events, legacy looks possible in Scotland and Glasgow in a number of areas. These include the regeneration of the East End of Glasgow, an economic boost in the construction, tourism and hospitality sectors and an enhancement of international reputation.

7.42 For other areas, particularly around population-level sport and physical activity, achieving legacy outcomes looks more challenging. SG and partners recognise that the Games may act more as a 'catalyst' for broader strategies, rather than have an effect in and of themselves. To address this, a new ten year Physical Activity Implementation Plan was launched in February 2014. This Plan recognises that tackling population activity levels is a long term, generational public health challenge.

7.43 There are a number of legacy outcomes for which the evidence is limited, so a prospective assessment is hard to make. In particular, the available evidence on achieving long-term outcomes from cultural and educational programmes is very limited. Evaluations of the education programme in Scotland 'Game on Scotland' and 'Culture and Festival 2014' will make an important contribution to the evidence base.

7.44 The evidence generally points to the need for community engagement and 'grassroots' involvement across the national themes, in Games preparation and in the longer term. Early results from the GoWell East study on influencing decisions in the area and support for the Games are promising and a number of legacy programmes are community-grown and community-based.

7.45 Finally, a concerted effort to maintain focus and momentum and embed the aspirations and outcomes into long term strategies will be critical in achieving many legacy outcomes. The SG and partners are now working on long term, evidence based, legacy planning to ensure this momentum is sustained post-Games.

7.46 We will continue to monitor and evaluate Games Legacy in Scotland until 2019. The next report will be published in autumn 2015, just over a year after the Games. This will include the economic assessment, the results from the second sweep of the community longitudinal study (GoWell East) and evaluation results from large national legacy programmes.

8. Annex 1: Indicator sets

Flourishing

HEADLINE INDICATORS

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase growth of Scottish businesses

F1: Gross Value Added (GVA) in key sectors

Yes

Yes

No

F2: Business stock – number of business sites in key sectors

Yes

Yes

Yes

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase movement into employment, training and volunteering

F3: Employment in key sectors

Yes

Yes

No

F4: Claimant Count – Number and proportion of people on unemployment benefit, alongside unemployment data.

Yes

Yes

No

F5: School leavers in sustained positive destinations – percentage reported annually.

Yes

Yes

No

F6: Modern Apprenticeships – number of New Starts, In Training, and Leavers.

Yes

Yes

No

F7: Adults providing unpaid help to organisations or groups – percentage reported annually, by type of unpaid help.

Yes

Yes

No

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the perception of Scotland as a world class destination for business, events and tourism

F8: Perception of Scotland internationally – exports.

Yes

No

No

F9: Perception of Scotland internationally – tourism.

Yes

No

No

F10: Rank and score as a business location – best city to locate a business in today among European cities.

No

Yes

No

F11: Rank and score as a major event destination – Glasgow.

No

No

No

F12: Tourist Visits – Overseas & UK Tourists (Trips)

Yes

Yes

No

F13: Tourist Expenditure – Overseas and UK Tourists Expenditure (£).

Yes

Yes

No

F14: Hotel occupancy (Glasgow) – Annual Average Hotel occupancy (%) and July-September occupancy.

Yes

Yes

No

Active

HEADLINE INDICATORS

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase physical activity and participation in sport

A1: % of population participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels

Yes

Yes

Yes

A2: % of children participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels

Yes

No

No

A3 : % of adults with low levels of physical activity

Yes

Yes

Yes

A4: % of children with low levels of physical activity

Yes

No

No

A5: % of adult population participating in sport

Yes

Yes

Yes

A6: % of children participating in sport

Yes

No

No

A7: % of adults who are aware of Physical Activity Recommendations

Yes

No

No

A8: % of adults who visit the outdoors

Yes

No

Yes

A9: Walking as a recreational activity

Yes

Yes

Yes

A10: Active travel to work

Yes

No

Yes

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the active infrastructure (people and places)

A11: GVA – sport and leisure

Yes

Yes

No

A12: Employment- sport and leisure

Yes

Yes

No

A13: Sports volunteering

Yes

Yes

Yes

A14: Sports coaching

No

No

No

A15: Opportunities to be active

No

No

No

A16: Satisfaction with local sport facilities

Yes

Yes

Yes

A17: Ultimate sports cities: ranking and score

No

Yes

No

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve Scottish sporting success

A18: Sporting Success

No

No

No

Connected

Headline Indicators

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the perception of Scotland as a creative nation, producing world class cultural experiences

C1: Perception of Scotland internationally - culture (includes sporting excellence)

Yes

No

No

C2: Message trending in the social media about the Games (volume and proportion of positive, negative and neutral messages)

No

No

No

C3: Memory of the event - proportion of the population who retain a positive memory of the Games

No

No

No

C4: Visits by overseas and UK Tourists (trips and expenditure)

Yes

Yes

No

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences

C5: Level of public engagement in Scotland with the Games

Yes

Yes

Yes

C6: Cultural engagement in Scotland among adults and young people (attendance and participation)

Yes

Yes

Yes

C7: GVA – creative industries

Yes

Yes

No

C8: Employment – creative industries

Yes

Yes

No

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences

C9: National and civic pride following the commonwealth games among adults and young people

No

No

Yes

Sustainable

HEADLINE INDICATORS

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the East End

S1: Perception of neighbourhood improvement: % of adults who think their neighbourhood has improved in the last 3 years.

Yes

Yes

Yes

S2: Perception of local community: % of adults who rate their community as a very good place to live

Yes

Yes

Yes

S3: Perception of community facilities: % of adults satisfied with community centres and facilities

Yes

Yes

Yes

S4: Perception of community safety: % of adults who feel safe in their local area after dark

Yes

Yes

No

S5: Perception of crime rate: % of adults who perceive the crime rate in their area to have stayed the same or reduced in the past two years.

Yes

Yes

No

S6: International Rating of Personal Safety: Mercer Personal Safety Ranking

No

Yes

No

S7: Green Space: Green space in Glasgow and East End (ha)

No

No

Yes

S8: Vacant and Derelict Land – Land brought back into use (ha) and Derelict Land/Vacant and Derelict Land (ha)

No

Yes

Yes

S9: Population: Population in Glasgow and East End

No

No

Yes

S10: Quality of Living: Mercer Quality of Living Ranking

No

Yes

No

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth

S11: Perception of community influence: % of adults who feel they can influence decisions in their local area

Yes

Yes

Yes

9. Annex 2: Outcome Indictor Data 2008-Latest

OUTCOME INDICATORS FOR ‘FLOURISHING’

HEADLINE INDICATORS – SCOTLAND LEVEL

Main dataset used

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase growth of Scottish businesses

F1: Gross Value Added (GVA) in key sectors (£ millions)

Construction

ABS

7,909

5,979

6,154

6,111

Creative industries

ABS

3,031

2,748

2,709

2,827

Manufacture of Food and Beverages

ABS

3,708

3,863

3,620

4,303

Sports activities and recreation education

ABS

440

610

429

508

Sustainable tourism

ABS

2,594

2,768

2,904

3,091

of which: Tourism related sports facilities and activities*

ABS

96

145

114

143

F2: Business stock – number of business sites in key sectors (number )

Construction

BIS

20,190

20,255

19,825

19,080

19,285

Creative industries

BIS

10,800

11,205

11,510

11,990

12,810

Manufacture of food and beverages

BIS

1,225

1,210

1,160

1,100

1,115

Sports activities and recreation education

BIS

1,945

1,790

1,860

1,800

1,790

Sustainable tourism

BIS

15,260

15,455

15,645

15,545

15,950

All sites operating Scotland

BIS

186,210

186,295

186,650

185,350

190,510

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME:Increase movement into employment, training and volunteering

F3: Employment in key sectors (number)

Construction

BRES

na

148,000

135,400

140,800

125,000

Creative industries

BRES

na

76,700

71,900

64,100

65,200

Manufacture of food and beverages

BRES

na

43,200

43,800

45,000

43,500

Sports activities and recreation education

BRES

na

34,900

33,300

38,500

37,600

Sustainable tourism

BRES

na

191,100

183,400

185,900

181,500

of which: Tourism related sports facilities and activities *

BRES

na

15,300

14,400

15,400

17,200

F4: Claimant Count – people on unemployment benefit, alongside unemployment data. (number)

ONS

79,900

127,701

137,322

142,748

142,457

F5: School leavers in sustained positive destinations (%)

SG

na

84

85.1

85.2

87.2

F6: Modern Apprenticeships – number of New Starts, In Training, and Leavers. (number)

SD

new starts

SD

10,579

20,216

21,561

26,427

25,691

in training

SD

26,614

33,733

36,253

35,262

35,906

leavers

SD

14,554

13,116

23,799

24,356

25,952

Total

SD

51,747

67,065

81,613

86,045

87,549

F7: Adults providing unpaid help to organisations or groups ( %)

SHS

31

28

31

30

29

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the perception of Scotland as a world class destination for business, events and tourism

F8: Perception of Scotland internationally – exports. (score)

NBI

54.6

54

53.5

-

53.7

F9: Perception of Scotland internationally – tourism. (Score)

NBI

69.1

67.3

67.4

-

67.4

F10: Rank and score as a business location – best city to locate a business in today among European cities. (As proportion of total) 0 (highest rank)->100 (lowest rank)

Other

26 (of 34)

29 (of 34)

29 (of 36)

30 (of 36)

Score

Other

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.05

F11: Rank and score as a major event destination – Glasgow.

Other

na

na

na

na

tbc

F12: Tourist Visits – Overseas & UK Tourists (Trips). (Millions)

IPS/GBT

14.64

14.59

14.45

15.70

14.98

F13: Tourist Expenditure – Overseas and UK Tourists Expenditure (£ Millions).

IPS/GBT

4,380

4,190

4,121

4,577

4,292

F14: Hotel occupancy (Scotland) – Annual Average Hotel occupancy. (%)

VS

63

64

63

65

65

Summer (%)

VS

74

77

77

79

78

* Note that data for this sector (which covers SIC 93.11 & SIC 93.199) is included under both Sports activities and recreation education & Sustainable tourism headings. This data has been provided only to show magnitude of overlap between the sectors.

ASB figures due Aug 2014

F3: Note: The 2011 BRES employment estimates in the table are not strictly comparable with the data for 2010 and 2009.

OUTCOME INDICATORS FOR ‘ACTIVE’

HEADLINE INDICATORS – SCOTLAND LEVEL

Main dataset used

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase physical activity and participation in sport

A1: Adults participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels (%) *

SHeS

39

37

39

39

38

A2: Children participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels (%) **

SHeS

71

71

72

73

70

A3 : Adults with low levels of physical activity (%)*

SHeS

31

32

31

32

32

A4: Children with low levels of physical activity (%) **

SHeS

13

11

11

10

12

A5: Adult population participating in sport (excluding walking) (%)

SHS

52

51

51

54

51

A6: Children participating in sport (%)

SHeS

71

73

70

69

66

A7: Awareness of Physical Activity Recommendations – Knew (%)

SHeS (KAM)

22

23

26

27

na

A8: Adults making one or more visits to the outdoors per week (%)

SRS

46

47

48

46

42

A9: Adults walking more than 30 minutes for recreation (%)

SHS

55

54

54

57

59

A10: Active travel to work (%)

SHS

15

15

16

15

16

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the active infrastructure (people and places)

A11: GVA - sport and leisure (£ Millions)

ABS

440

610

429

508

A12: Employment- sport and leisure (Sports activities and recreation education) (number)

BRES

na

34,900

33,300

38,300

37,600

A13: Sports Volunteering (%)

SHS

5

4

5

4

4

A14: Sports Coaching (%)

SS

na

na

na

na

tbc

A15: Oppprtunities to be active (number of attendances per 1000 population at leisure facilities)

Other

na

na

8,751

8,768

9,824

A16: Satisfaction with local sports facilities (Very/fairly satisfied) (%)

SHS

83

82

82

85

88

A17: Ultimate Sports Cities – Glasgow (ranking)

SB

na

na

na

11

9

Score

SB

na

na

na

291

344

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve Scottish Sporting Success

A18: Sporting Success (number of medals in last Commonwealth Games)

Other

na

na

26

na

na

* 2012 recorded under old guidelines (62% new guidelines)
**includes school activies

NOTES:

* 2012 recorded under old guidelines (62% new guidelines)

**includes school activities

A14 data available 2014

A15 split years: 2010/2011; 2011/2012; 2012/2013

OUTCOME INDICATORS FOR ‘CONNECTED’

HEADLINE INDICATORS – SCOTLAND LEVEL

Main dataset used

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the perception of Scotland as a creative nation, producing world class cultural experiences

C1: Perception of Scotland internationally – culture (includes sporting excellence) (score)

NBI

58.9

57.57

57.41

na

57.9

C2: Message trending in the social media about the Games (volume and proportion of positive, negative and neutral messages)

Media Monitor

na

na

na

na

na

C3: Memory of the event – proportion of the population who retain a positive memory of the Games

Media Monitor

na

na

na

na

na

C4: Tourist Visits – Overseas & UK Tourists (Trips). (Millions)

IPS/GBT

14.64

14.59

14.45

15.70

14.98

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences

C5: Level of public engagement in Scotland with the Games Adult

Buy tickets to attend (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

14

20

I won’t buy tickets for the Games, but may attend specific cultural events (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

4

3

I may not go to any of the events for which you buy tickets, but I intend visiting Glasgow during the event (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

4

4

I will not go to the Commonwealth Games, but intend watching them on television (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

46

44

I have no interest at all in the Commonwealth Games (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

31

24

Don’t know (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

2

4

C6: Cultural engagement in Scotland among adults (%)

SHS

86

86

85

87

90

Attendance (%)

SHS

75

74

74

76

78

Participation (%)

SHS

74

73

71

73

78

C6: Cultural engagement in Scotland among young people (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

98

Attendance (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

96

Participation (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

93

C7: GVA – creative industries (£ Millions)

SAB

3,031

2,748

2,709

2,827

C8: Employment – creative industries(number)

SAB

na

76,000

71,900

64,100

65,200

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Enhance young people”s learning and everyone”s understanding and celebration of our and other countries” cultures

C9: National and civic pride following the commonwealth games among adults -

I will be proud that Glasgow/Scotland is hosting this event

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

12

People who live in Scotland will feel proud

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

18

C9: National and civic pride following the commonwealth games among young people -

Supportive of Glasgow hosting the 2014 Commonwealth Games

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

62

I will be proud of Scotland, of myself, of athletes, of Glasgow

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

26

More people who live in this country will be proud

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

28

NOTES:

C2 & C3 data should be available in 2014

ASB figures due Aug 2014

OUTCOME INDICATORS FOR ‘SUSTAINABLE’

HEADLINE INDICATORS – SCOTLAND LEVEL

Main dataset used

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the East End

S1: Neighbourhood improvement (%)

SHS

14

12

13

12

14

S2: Perception – local community (%)

SHS

53

55

55

56

55

S3: Perception – community centres and facilities (%)

SHS

31

29

30

32

31

S4: Perception – community safety (%)

SCJS

66

67

68

S5: Perception – crime rate (%)

SCJS

69

71

74

S6: International rating of personal safety (rank)

MQL

43

-

-

44

tbc

S7: Greenspace

Other

na

na

na

na

na

S8: Vacant and derelict land – Total area in Glasgow (hectare)

SVDLS

1, 327

1, 350

1, 324

1, 303

1, 253

S9: Area Deprivation and Population Change

SG/NRS

na

na

na

na

na

S10: Quality of living (Rank)

MQL

56

56

57

56

55

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth

S11: Perception – community influence (%)

SHS

22

22

21

22

21

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility

S12: Neighbourhood cleanliness – Grade A * (%)

LEAMS

26

25

28

tbc

Grade B (%)

LEAMS

70

71

68

tbc

Grade C (%)

LEAMS

4

4

4

tbc

Grade D (%)

LEAMS

0.2

0.2

0.2

tbc

S13: Rates of recycling (%)

SHS

87

88

88

89

S14: Waste destination – landfill (%)

SEPA

63

61

59

incinerated (%)

SEPA

3

3

3

recycled (%)

SEPA

22

23

24

composted (%)

SEPA

12

14

14

S15: Understanding of environmental responsibility recycle (%)

Omnibus

na

na

na

na

66

NOTES:

* does not add up to 100% due to rounding

S4 - S5 split years i.e. 2008/2009; 2009/2010; 2010/2011.

Acronym

Data survey

ABS

Annual Business Survey, ONS

BIS

Businesses in Scotland, Scottish Government (Calculations by Scottish Government)

BRES

Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS

GBT

GB Tourism

IDBS

Inter-Department Business register, ONS

IPS

International Pasenger survey

NBISM

Anholt GFK-Roper National Brands Index

Omnibus

TNS

ONS

ONS (Retrieved through NOMIS)

Other

Other – online resources

SB

Sports Business

SD

Skills Development Scotland

SG

Summary Statistics for attainment, leaver destinations and healthy living (Scottish Government)

SGT

Scottish Government Tourism Stats Summary Webpage

SHeS

Scottish Health Survey

SHeS (KAM)

Scottish Health Survey – KAM module

SHS

Scottish Household Survey

SRS

Scottish Recreation Survey

SS

Sports Scotland

UKT

UK Tourism

VS

VisitScotland. Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey

Footnotes

1. http://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/homecoming-scotland-2014/

2. SOLACE Scotland is the Scottish Branch of the Society of Local Authority Chief Executives and Senior Managers

3. http://www.glasgow2014.com/press-releases/cgf-cocom-%E2%80%98impressed%E2%80%99-glasgow%E2%80%99s-progress

4. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/queens_baton_relay/

5. GLEWG membership includes Scottish Government, Glasgow City Council, Glasgow 2014, NHS Health Scotland, Education Scotland, Creative Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, Visit Scotland, Skills Development Scotland, sportscotland, Volunteer Scotland and the Commonwealth Games Partnership Legacy Research Co‐ordinator.

6. Scottish Government (2014) A Review of the Evidence of Legacy of Major Sporting Events.

7. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0040/00408160.pdf

8. Mayne, J. (2008) Contribution Analysis: An approach to exploring cause and effect, ILAC methodological brief, available at:

9. http://www.cgiar-lac.org/files/publications/briefs/ILAC_Brief16_Contribution_Analysis.pdf

10. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/1401/0

11. Games Legacy Evaluation Working Group. 2013. Evaluating Glasgow 2014 Legacy Programmes. Scottish Government.

12. http://www.gowellonline.com/

13. according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation

14. http://www.gowellonline.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=20&Itemid=21

15. GLEE members include SG, GCC, Scottish Enterprise, Glasgow City Marketing Bureau (GCMB) and Glasgow 2014

16. Scottish Government (2014) A Review of the Evidence of Legacy of Major Sporting Events

17. ONS, 2012

18. Assessing Legacy 2014

19. http://www.sdpscotland.co.uk/

20. http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=10742

21. https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=11173

22. http://www.glasgowlife.org.uk/communities/host-city-volunteering/Pages/default.aspx

23. Provided by Glasgow 2014

24. End December 2013.

25. At the end of Feb, approximately £18 million worth of contracts were still to be awarded, of which contracts worth approximately £3 million had yet to be advertised

26. Glasgow Centre for Population Health (forthcoming 2014). Volunteering for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games

27. Scottish Government (2014) A Review of the Evidence of Legacy of Major Sporting Events

28. The Clyde Gateway area is larger than the GoWell East study area, encompassing part of South Lanarkshire

29. www.scotland.gov.uk/AssessingLegacy2014

30. See http://www.gowellonline.com/

31. Clark,J Kearns,A (2014) (forthcoming) A Prospective Assessment of the Potential Impacts of the 2014 Commonwealth games and Regeneration on the Proximate Communities in the East End of Glasgow

32. The national survey data discussed in this section comes from the Scottish Household Survey and The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey.

33. Personal communication, Professor Ade Kearns

34. Scottish Recreation Survey 2011

35. Scottish Government (2014) A Review of the Evidence of Legacy of Major Sporting Events

36. De Bosschera, V., De Knopa, P., Van Bottenburg, M. & Shiblic, S. (2006) A Conceptual Framework for Analysing Sports Policy Factors Leading to International Sporting Success. European Sport Management Quarterly, Vol. 6, Issue 2.

37. Physical Activity Implementation Plan

38. http://www.globalpa.org.uk/charter/

39. Start Active, Stay Active – A Report on Physical Activity for Health from the 4 Home Countries' Chief Medical Officers. (2011) UK Department of Health. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/start-active-stay-active-a-report-on-physical-activity-from-the-four-home-countries-chief-medical-officers

40. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/09/7854/49

41. Eg Church TS, Thomas DM, Tudor-Locke C, Katzmarzyk PT, Earnest CP, et al. (2011) Trends over 5 Decades in U.S. Occupation-Related Physical Activity and Their Associations with Obesity. PLoS ONE 6(5): e19657. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019657

42. Owen, N., Healy, G.N., Matthews, C.E. and Dunstan, D.W. (2010) Too Much Sitting: The Population Health Science of Sedentary Behaviour. Exercise & Sport Science Review, Vol.38, No.3, p105-113.

43. Designed to Move: A Physical Activity Agenda (2012) American College of Sports Medicine, Nike and the International Council of Sport Science and Physical Education. http://www.designedtomove.org/

44. Logistic regression – Scottish Government paper, forthcoming.

45. Scotland's People Annual Report: Results from the 2012 Scottish Household Survey. Chapter 13 Culture & Sport. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/08/6973/13

46. A similar question was included in the Taking Part survey to feed into the Olympics Meta-Evaluation

47. Including intention to buy tickets; attend cultural events; visit Glasgow during the Games and watch the Games on TV

48. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/ArtsCultureSport/Sport/MajorEvents/Glasgow-2014/Commonwealth-games/Indicators/C5

49. Full details of analysis in forthcoming Scottish Government Research Findings.

50. Including watching on TV, listening on radio, reading in newspapers, following online, attending events and other options. Full details in Annex X/SR Findings

51. Using logistic regression

52. Attending Olympic or Paralympic events, taking part in games related sport activity, using improved facilities linked to Games, attending cultural events and other options. Full list in Annex X/SR Findings

53. Encompassing intention to buy tickets; intention to attend cultural events and intention to visit Glasgow during the Games.

54. Nicholson, M., Hoye, R. and Houlihan, B. (Eds) (2011) Participation in Sport, International Policy Perspectives. Routledge: Oxford.

55. http://www.sisport.com/sisport/9110.html

56. Scottish Government (2014) A Review of the Evidence of Legacy of Major Sporting Events

57. Garcia, B. (2014) Editorial, Cultural Trends, Vol. 23, No. 1, p. 1-6

58. Richards, G. and Palmer, R. (2010) Eventful Cities. Butterworth Heinemann, Oxford.

59. http://www.glasgowlife.org.uk/policy-research/Documents/Glasgow%20Cultural%20Statistics.pdf

60. Evidence Review in Support of the Commonwealth Games (2014) Scottish Government

61. Kearns A, Clark J. A Prospective Assessment of the Potential Impacts of the 2014 Commonwealth Games and Regeneration Upon the Proximate Communities in the East End of Glasgow.

62. Personal Communication – Professor Ade Kearns

63. Glasgow Centre for Population Health, Briefing Paper 6, Concepts Series http://www.gcph.co.uk/assets/0000/0404/CS6_web.pdf