An Evaluation of the Commonwealth Games 2014 Legacy for Scotland: Report 1: Questions, Methods and Baseline

The Games Legacy Evaluation Working Group

Errata

An errata was published on (15/01/2013) at (Annex 2; STRATEGIES AND INTERVENTIONS; Section 2; first bullet point).

- An implementation plan is being developed for the Scottish Charter for Physical Activity supporting planning, delivering and governance of physical activity investments across all relevant Scottish Government policy areas.

Addenda

There is no addenda at present.

This report is available on the Scottish Government Social Research website (www.scotland.gov.uk/socialresearch) only.

The views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and do not necessarily represent those of the Scottish Government or Scottish Ministers.

© Crown copyright 2012

You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk

Social Research series
ISSN 2045-6964
ISBN 978-1-78256-191-0 (web)
ISBN 978-1-78256-192-7 (e-Pub)
ISBN 978-1-78256-193-4 (Mobi)

APS Group Scotland
DPPAS13502 (10/12)

Contents

Games Legacy Evaluation Working Group (GLEWG)

1 Introduction and Background
The Games
The Legacy
Evaluating Legacy
This Report
Previous Research
Developing the Glasgow 2014 Legacy Evaluation

2 Research Questions and Methods
Aim and Research Questions
Methods

3 Forward Plan and Priorities
Introduction
Priorities to Spring 2014
Forward Look

Annex 1: Flourishing
Annex 2: Active
Annex 3: Connected
Annex 4: Sustainable
Annex 5: Data Sources and Glossary
Annex 6: Glasgow East End

Games Legacy Evaluation Working Group (GLEWG)

Dominic Munro (Chair, Scottish Government)
Dr Anita Morrison (Scottish Government Analyst, Games Team)
Fiona Dill (Scottish Government Social Research, Games Team)
Dr Imelda Giarchi (Scottish Government Social Research, Games Team)
Dr Duncan Whitehead (Scottish Government Economist, Games Team)
Jonathan Wright (Scottish Government Health Analytical Services)
Linda Christie (Glasgow City Council)
Jane Thompson (Glasgow City Council)
Dr Robert Rogerson (University of Strathclyde, Commonwealth Games Partnership Legacy Research Co‐ordinator)
Professor Kay Livingston (formerly Education Scotland, now University of Glasgow)
Neil Craig (NHS Health Scotland)
Paul Zealey (2014 Organising Committee)
Mary Allison (sportscotland)
Helen McNeill (Scottish Enterprise)
Leonie Bell (Creative Scotland)
Alastair Evans (Creative Scotland)
Jacqui Souter (Visit Scotland)
Dr Niamh O'Connor (Scottish Government, Communities Analytical Services)
David McPhee (Scottish Government, Office of the Chief Economic Adviser)
Sara Dodds (Scottish Government, Communities Analytical Services)
Karen Holmes (Scottish Government Games Legacy Team)

1 Introduction and Background

The Games

1.1 Glasgow will host the 2014 Commonwealth Games (the Glasgow 2014 Games) from 23 July to 3 August 2014. Approximately 6,500 athletes and officials from 71 nations and territories will take part in 17 sports (5 of which include para sport medal events). Scotland, and the City of Glasgow, are expecting many thousands of visitors and spectators. The Glasgow 2014 Games are a major event for Scotland. There is great excitement about the summer of 2014, and a shared commitment to deliver a very successful sporting event.

1.2 This will be the biggest multi-sports event that Scotland has ever hosted. A partnership between the Scottish Government (SG), Glasgow City Council (GCC), Commonwealth Games Scotland (CGS) and the Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee (the OC) continues to underpin the planning and delivery of these Games. The expected cost of delivering the Glasgow 2014 Games is £524m. The SG will provide up to £344m and GCC around £80m; the OC will meet the balance through income from sponsorship, and the sale of ticketing, merchandising and broadcasting rights. Together the Games partners are working to ensure the Glasgow 2014 Games are delivered on time and on budget.

The Legacy

1.3 Crucially, the Glasgow 2014 Games also provide opportunities above and beyond the hosting of a major sporting event. From the early stages of bidding there has been an emphasis on the positive and lasting benefits that could be achieved for both Scotland as a whole, for Glasgow, and the East End specifically. These benefits are often collectively described as the 'legacy'.

1.4 Creating a lasting and positive legacy from the Glasgow 2014 Games is a top priority for the Scottish Government. Legacy activity will help deliver the national government's wider aspirations for Scotland over the next decade. These are set out in the National Performance Framework[1] . The Scotland-wide games legacy plan 'A Games Legacy for Scotland' was launched in September 2009 and sets out the legacy ambitions of the Scottish Government and its wide range of partners. More information on the SG's legacy ambitions is available at: http://legacy2014.co.uk. With a ten year timeframe to 2019, it is set around four themes:

Flourishing - using the Games to contribute to the growth of the Scottish economy.

Active - using the Games to help Scots be more physically active.

Connected - using the Games to strengthen connections at home and internationally through culture and learning.

Sustainable - using the Games to demonstrate environmental responsibility and help communities live more sustainably.

1.5 The City of Glasgow has identified 6 legacy themes which broadly fit with the four national themes above. These are; Prosperous, Active, Inclusive, Accessible, Green and International. More detailed information on Glasgow's legacy plans is available at: http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/AboutGlasgow/AGamesLegacyForGlasgow.

1.6 GCC (with the support of SG and partner agencies) is leading on a programme of major capital projects for the venues, the Athletes Village and the transport infrastructure in Glasgow[2] . Some projects have already been completed and a number of others are underway. Projects already complete include Scotstoun Stadium, Kelvingrove Lawn Bowls Centre, the Commonwealth Arena and Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome. Other projects underway include the Athletes Village, Tollcross International Swimming Centre, Cathkin Braes Mountain Biking Circuit, Glasgow National Hockey Centre, and Scotstoun Leisure Centre. The Hydro Arena is being developed privately as an entirely new venue adjacent to the SECC complex (see map 4 in Annex 6). Venues outwith Glasgow have also been refurbished - in Edinburgh the Royal Commonwealth Pool has now re-opened after refurbishment and in Angus the Barry Buddon Centre will play host to the shooting competition. Many of these were existing venues, or were planned for development in advance of the Commonwealth Games bid. Arguably though, the securing of the Games may have helped ensure their completion to specification and at pace. The activity associated with venue preparation has been used to lever legacy in different ways, in particular business and employment-related outcomes.

1.7 In Glasgow the physical landscape is changing with the building and refurbishment work to support the Games. But there are also plans to affect social outcomes for the city, using the Glasgow 2014 Games as an impetus for raising aspirations, driving achievement and contributing to a positive future for Glasgow. Notably, there has been substantial new investment for the Games in Glasgow's east end, in some of the most deprived communities in Scotland. The Games investment has become integral to plans for a wider, long-term regeneration initiative being led by the Clyde Gateway Urban Regeneration Company (URC). Significant improvements have been made to the transport infrastructure in the surrounding area, including the M74 improvements and the new Clyde Gateway route. The aforementioned Athletes Village will be transformed after the event into around 700 new homes - including around 300 homes for social rent and a new 120 bed care home. Partners in the area are working to ensure that they capitalise on the pace and focus that the Glasgow 2014 Games provide, which sets it apart from other regeneration initiatives to date.

1.8 The Games Partners and a host of other national and local partners are also involved in delivering a wide range of legacy programmes and projects across the 4 national, and 6 Glasgow, themes. At national level, this includes the national government, national agencies, the OC and a number of other partners.[3] At Glasgow level, legacy is being led by GCC with support from the Council's arms length external organisations and Glasgow Community Planning Partners. It is hoped that the collective effort and mobilisation of resources across all partners will deliver a games legacy for Glasgow and Scotland. The SG and GCC now have over 2 years of legacy experience behind them. Both have carried out a review of their legacy plans to identify lessons and issues for the years ahead. More details of legacy strategies and programmes by theme are set out in the Annexes. Also provided is information on sources and a glossary containing information on the key organisations mentioned in the report (See Annex 5).

Evaluating Legacy

1.9 The SG, GCC and partners are also committed to assessing carefully whether we are making progress on legacy, and specifically whether progress towards the intermediate and long-term outcomes is achieved. The Games Legacy Evaluation Working Group (GLEWG) was established in January 2012 to design and deliver an evaluation of legacy. The Group is convened by the SG and comprises Glasgow City Council, key national partners and academics. Members generally have a lead responsibility for analysis in their organisations. The membership is set out at the beginning of this report. GLEWG will report to the Games Legacy Executive Board (GLEB). GLEWG has met on three occasions since January 2012 to develop and agree the approach to evaluation that is set out in this report.

This Report

1.10 This report sets out the broad approach to the Glasgow 2014 legacy evaluation agreed by GLEWG, the research questions it will address, and the range of methods that will be deployed between now and 2019. It also sets out the priorities for the next 18 months and a forward timetable for publication of reports.

1.11 The report also has a series of Annexes on the 4 national themes (flourishing, active, connected and sustainable). In each annex we set out:

- A background to each theme;

- The key strategies and interventions at the time of writing;

- The proposed indicator set;

- Early data from the baseline year of 2008 to present (where available).

1.12 It is important to note at this stage, that the indicators presented here are, in theory, amenable to change due to the Glasgow 2014 Games at some juncture between 2008 and 2019, but they only form a small part of the picture. As our work progresses primary research and evaluation will provide the 'bottom-up' evidence that will help assess the direct contribution of the Games. More of these data and analysis will be available for the next report in 2014. More information on methods is provided in Chapter 2.

Previous Research

1.13 We have looked carefully at previous legacy research from major sporting events to help inform and shape our own approach to evaluating the Glasgow 2014 legacy.[4] This Findings paper is available on the SG website. We reviewed independent and peer-reviewed empirical evidence of past events by searching the relevant databases[5] using the following search terms: legacy impact, evaluation, Olympics, Commonwealth Games, major event, sporting event. This has unearthed research on a number of Olympic Games, Commonwealth Games and other major events - though events are unevenly represented in the literature. For example, Sydney 2000 and Athens 2004 Summer Olympics are relatively well researched, whereas the Melbourne 2006 and Delhi 2010 Commonwealth Games (as well as many Winter Olympics) appear under-represented.

1.14 Overall, the body of robust evidence on legacy from major sporting events is limited. It varies greatly in quality and rigour. Most studies use a cross-sectional design (often with no repeat or follow-up), very few use a comparison group or area, and some studies have small sample sizes. Further, there is a paucity of long-term assessments of whether legacy has been achieved. The legacy areas covered in the available research also varied greatly. More attention was given to economic and infrastructural impacts whereas social outcomes were only rarely assessed. To some extent the current state of the evidence base probably reflects the challenges of delivering research in what is a complex area with a broad range of proposed aspirations and outcomes, and often with no clear and explicit legacy planning.

1.15 Nonetheless, there are some important messages in the evidence base currently available. What we can ascertain from research to date is that hosting major events are not in themselves a solution to the economic and social problems of cities or regions, and there is much debate about the long term impacts, both social and economic. The evidence on whether there are population health and socioeconomic benefits as a result of hosting such events is also inconclusive.

1.16 For example, previous research has not evidenced a physical activity legacy from hosting. However, this is not to say that it has not, or cannot, happen. Research does suggest that the best way to harness this may be through one of two mechanisms: a 'demonstration effect' that might motivate current or lapsed participants to restart or deepen their participation, and generating a 'festival effect' through a wider celebration that might motivate those currently 'pre-contemplative' or sedentary. Both effects could potentially be generated in Scotland through the hosting of the Glasgow 2014 Games, and by the national and Glasgow cultural programming currently planned.

1.17 Several studies show increases in employment and other economic benefits - though they tend to be short-term and hard to sustain. However, given the economic downturn, short-term employment gains may help partially mitigate the effects of recession. The 2002 Manchester Commonwealth Games' focus on employability and volunteering appears to have led to increases in skills, self esteem and aspirations, as well as a desire to volunteer in the future. A substantial body of research also points to the problems of 'white elephants' and highlights the need for long term plans for the infrastructure. In the past these have arisen due to a number of factors including lack of explicit legacy planning, poor co-ordination between partners and (in some cases) the sheer scale.

1.18 There is some evidence in the literature of strengthening networks and partnerships between different organisations and agencies as a result of hosting a major sporting event. Events have varied greatly in their explicit legacy plans, and the scope and nature of partnership working, with many focusing only on economic and infrastructural benefits. Some events claimed to have social legacy objectives but these were not always operationalised in the articulation of priorities and resource distribution. The London 2012 and Glasgow 2014 Games appear to have more comprehensive and explicit legacy programmes than have been produced for previous Olympics and Commonwealth Games.

1.19 There will be an important addition to the evidence base when the London 2012 meta-evaluation reports later this year, and in 2013. To the best of our knowledge, the London 2012 meta-evaluation is the most ambitious major event evaluation conducted to date in both scale and ambition. This work is very broad in scope, covering all legacy themes, direct and indirect effects, and unintended as well as intended effects. These effects are being measured at host borough, London and national levels. At its heart, this requires the generation of counterfactuals (policy and outcome counterfactuals), and completion of high quality evaluations across large numbers of legacy programmes for later synthesis.

1.20 So, in summary, research to date does suggest that hosting major events can create a legacy - but it won't happen by chance. Legacies are well planned and delivered, and are linked to, and embedded in, existing strategies and policies on place, regeneration, communities and cities. The lessons from this research have informed the SG's legacy review aforementioned in paragraph 1.8.

Developing the Glasgow 2014 Legacy Evaluation

1.21 An evaluation of Glasgow 2014 legacy is potentially a very ambitious and wide-ranging piece of work. It is methodologically challenging because the legacy outcomes are complex. Legacy activity is likely to impact on many people in many different ways, some intended, some unintended. Impacts are likely to be different at different spatial levels - some nationally, some city-wide and some more local to the new infrastructure and investment.

1.22 Nonetheless, there appears to be a clear opportunity to conduct some good quality research and evaluation on the Glasgow 2014 Games and its legacy for a number of reasons. Firstly, there has been a clear and explicit aim to create a legacy from early on among all partners in Scotland. Secondly, legacy plans are often embedded in existing strategies and policies. The literature suggests these are the conditions under which legacy may happen. Thirdly, the international evidence base is currently mixed in quality. This evaluation could add substantially to the knowledge base on delivering major sporting events and planning for legacy, and potentially improve policy making around legacy.

1.23 There were some early decisions to be made on the overall study design. The GLEWG discussed in depth whether a 'counterfactual' or 'control' is possible in such an evaluation of legacy (as has been attempted in the London 2012 meta-evaluation). By 'counterfactual' we mean what would have happened in the absence of the Games investment. We have decided not to follow this approach. As noted earlier, the way in which the work on legacy in Scotland has been designed and delivered is to embed legacy programmes in regeneration, culture and health strategies. This is very much in accord with the evidence on creating legacy, but makes the generation of a 'counterfactual' very challenging.

1.24 This, in turn, makes attributing legacy outcomes to specific elements of Games-related investments and programmes challenging. Therefore, the Glasgow 2014 legacy evaluation has been designed to assess the contribution that different investment and programmes are likely to have made using evidence available from regular and bespoke data collection, research and evaluations. A 'contribution analysis' approach is used in public policy analysis, particularly when it is not feasible or reasonable to design an 'experiment' with a counterfactual or control.[6] As individual pieces of research and evaluation are specified we expect to set out the logic and expected 'pathways of change' for programmes.

1.25 This decision on the counterfactual also has implications for any economic assessment. The consequence is that it will not be possible to provide an overall measure of the economic impact of the Games legacy. As an alternative, it is proposed that the economic assessment pulls together on a number of sources and evaluation approaches to present a narrative of the economic contribution of the Glasgow 2014 Games over the legacy period on the East End, Glasgow and Scotland as a whole.

1.26 To help develop our thinking further, an 'outcomes map' for legacy has been produced and is presented at the end of this chapter. This is based on discussion with partners and stakeholders. This has helped us frame our key research questions. It sets out the final and intermediate legacy outcomes partners hope to achieve across national themes. More detail on current strategies, interventions and programmes are contained within the themed Annexes. As we draw nearer to the event (and indeed post-event), new programmes will come on stream, and new priorities may emerge. A number of assumptions are made that underpin this model including the delivery of a successful event, and a long-term commitment to partnership working on legacy. Finally, a number of external factors were identified. The most pertinent is that since the bid was won there has been an economic downturn which has changed the context within which the Glasgow 2014 Games is being organised.

1.27 Finally, GLEWG had to consider what an appropriate timescale might be for a legacy evaluation. We decided on 2008 as a baseline year because that was the first full year following the successful bid, and prior to the launch of the Scottish Government and Glasgow City Council legacy plans. Previous research on timing of impacts does suggest that changes in some outcomes (for example international reputation) can be demonstrated in the pre-Games period as a result of winning the bid, not just at the time of the Games, or in their aftermath (when we might expect to see, for example, change in regeneration-related outcomes).[7] GLEWG also decided that the evaluation should run until at least 2019, replicating the timescale for the legacy plans, and noting that some of the outcomes we are trying to achieve are long term.

2 Research Questions and Methods

Aim and Research Questions

2.1 The main aim of this evaluation is to assess the extent to which legacy outcomes have been achieved between 2008 and 2019. A baseline of 2008 seems sensible as the 'before' year, with the period 2009-2019 the period when strategies and programmes are delivered. In consultation with partners we have identified key questions that we consider crucial to address. The research questions are set out in Table 2.1.

2.2 The key questions generally seek to answer whether progress on outcomes and intermediate outcomes has been achieved, and whether legacy programmes are contributing to change. These questions vary in their relevance spatially - some are relevant nationally, some at city level and some in Glasgow's east end where much of the new investment has been made. Some questions sit very clearly within one of the national themes (active, flourishing, sustainable and connected); others are more cross-cutting.

2.3 There are also some questions we would like to pose, given some of the theoretical debate and research evidence to date on hosting major sporting events. We have touched on these in Chapter 1. They include questions about the 'demonstration' and 'festival' effects described in the literature on physical activity legacy and the potential for strengthening partnership and collaboration.

2.4 The questions in Table 2.1 are our priority to address at the time of publication. As the planning and implementation of legacy programmes and projects progresses there may be new and additional questions that the evaluation may seek to address. For example, last month Education Scotland launched plans for 'Game On Scotland', a schools programme for the Glasgow 2014 Games. We will explore how we address questions about whether the programme has stimulated learning and increased international links through schools. Any changes to the core research questions will be highlighted in future reports.

2.5 This chapter also sets out an analytical plan that shows the methods we will use to address these at Scotland, Glasgow and at the East End level (see Annex 5). In many cases, a combination of, or triangulation of, methods will be used to address the research question at hand.

2.6 There will also be additional questions that Glasgow, as a host city, may want to address directly; particularly on the benefits and impact of their programmes. A Glasgow Evaluation Group will work closely with GLEWG on the development of this Scotland-wide evaluation of legacy, and will also tackle questions that Glasgow specifically might want to address beyond this current work.

2.7 Of course, there are many additional or alternative questions that could then be asked about the design, delivery and outcomes of the Glasgow 2014 Games and associated legacy activity. This evaluation cannot address them all, and indeed we hope research conducted by academia and the wider public sector in Scotland will also add to the evidence base on legacy. We are working with the Glasgow Commonwealth Games Partnership Legacy Research co-ordinator and others to help foster interest in research on Games Legacy. To that end, we have funded two Games-related PhDs through the Scottish Government and ESRC PhD scheme. These will commence in October 2012.

Table 2.1: Key research questions and supplementary questions

Theme

6 Key Questions with supplementary questions

Active

1) Has there been a change in sport participation and physical activity?

- Are sustained changes in physical activity and sports participation evident among particular groups?

- Is there evidence for a 'demonstration effect' among those already, or recently, physically active?

- Is there evidence of a 'festival effect' among those who are currently sedentary?

- Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase physical activity contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

Flourishing

2) What effect has the Games had on businesses, employment and volunteering?

- What has been the effect of Games investment on economic outcomes?

- How do the outcomes of the Games investment compare with other investments?

- Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to support businesses contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

- Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to support people into employment, training and volunteering contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

Sustainable Active Flourishing

3) What is the impact of the Games on the lives of the local community in the area of Glasgow's east end most directly affected by the investment?

- What change is observed over time in key outcomes e.g. (physical activity, neighbourhood experience, cultural engagement, volunteering)?

- Have there been changes in the physical, social and retail environment over time?

- How do changes in key outcomes in this area compare with other similarly disadvantaged areas and regeneration sites in Glasgow? Is there additionality?

Connected Flourishing

4) Has there been a change in cultural engagement?

- Are sustained changes in cultural engagement evident among particular groups?

- Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase cultural engagement contributed to change? What can we learn for in the future?

Connected Flourishing

5) Has there been a change in civic pride and/or international reputation?

- Has there been a change in civic pride among particular groups?

- What aspects of international reputation have changed over time?

Overarching

6) Is there a partnership legacy?

- How have organisations worked together to maximise Games opportunities?

- Did partners capitalise on the impacts of the Games post-2014?

- What are the lessons for the future?

Methods

2.8 To address the questions set out in Chapter 1 we have designed a programme of research and analysis between now and 2019 (see table 2.4) In principle we plan to make best use of existing data and research including national statistics, national surveys, programme evaluations and other research studies. Where there are clear gaps in evidence we will consider commissioning new work.

2.9 This evaluation will include what might be described as both 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' data and evidence. Our 'top-down' sources include data from national surveys and statistics. These are existing sources from which we have chosen indicators that could, in theory, be affected by the Glasgow 2014 Games investment and delivery. We are also planning further analysis of existing surveys to address the key research questions. Crucially, this will be supplemented by 'bottom-up' evidence from bespoke research and evaluations that should help us ascertain whether the legacy investments and programmes are likely to be contributing to changes in outcomes. The evaluation will comprise of 6 key components:

- Tracking outcome indicators across the 4 national themes

- Secondary analysis of key statistics and surveys

- Prospective Longitudinal Community Study in Glasgow's East End

- Monitoring and Evaluation of key legacy programmes

- Economic Assessment

- Primary research - including on partnership and leverage

A) Tracking Outcome Indicators

2.10 A set of outcome indicators will be tracked from a 2008 baseline to 2019 across all four national themes; active, flourishing, connected and sustainable. The data will be at Scottish, Glasgow, and small area level, where possible and relevant. By small area we are generally meaning the area in the east end of Glasgow with the substantial investment as a result of the Games. For further information on see map 4 in Annex 6. After discussion with GCC colleagues it was decided that a sensible boundary would be that of the GCC East End Local Development Strategy.

2.11 This will give us a broad picture of how we are progressing against legacy outcomes, as well as addressing some of the key research questions. The types of data which could be used as indicators for the Games Legacy in Scotland are:

- Statistical data collected by the Scottish Government (SG) and a range of other organisations or added as a new data collection.

- Survey data collected by the SG and a range of other organisations, or added as a new data collection (including the use of omnibus surveys)

- Indices which provide a ranking. This is normally provided on a yearly basis by private and public organisations to enable comparisons.

2.12 We have consulted widely on the outcomes map and an associated set of indicators for legacy. Some of these data are available now, other measures are in development. A full description of the sources of these indicators is provided in Annex 5. These indicator sets are presented in the themed Annexes of this report. The selection of these indicators is based on a number of key criteria, including: quality, regularity, disaggregation and relevance. Relevance was an informed judgement about whether these are amenable to change due to Glasgow 2014 Games investment. We have also made a judgement about where indicators best fit under themes - but with a clear understanding that many of these cross-cut themes (particularly between the flourishing theme and the others).

2.13 There are clearly data gaps, particularly in the connected and sustainable themes. To address some of those gaps in the short-term we expect to:

- Include new questions in the Scottish Household Survey (SHS) from 2013

- Commission questions on adult and school omnibus surveys

- Develop work with partners to undertake media monitoring

2.14 Worthy of note is that changes in outcome indicators would theoretically be expected at different points in time[8] . While we present baseline data from 2008 in the Annexes of this report it is important to note that we would not expect to see a change in many of these indicators due to the Glasgow 2014 Games at this point. We have made clear in the later chapters why indicators have been selected, and when we might expect to influence those indicators.

2.15 Over the coming months we plan to develop web-based reporting for our indicator set which we can update regularly as data become publicly available. As a time-series emerges across the indicators, we will undertake further analysis and testing.

B) Secondary Analysis of Key Surveys and Statistics

2.16 In addition to tracking the key outcomes, we plan to analyse in more detail the underlying trends in the outcome indicators, including spatial analysis and analysis by equalities groups, where possible. Some of this analysis is set out in the themed Annexes, but there is clearly scope for further analysis now, and in the future. In particular, we think there is scope for further analysis of the Scottish Household Survey (SHS) and the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS). It is worth noting that there are additional questions on physical activity and sport in the SHeS in 2012. Further, there will be additional questions on attitudes and engagement with culture in the 2013 SHS. There will also be scope for repetition of these questions in future years.

2.17 However, there are other cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys in Scotland (including UK surveys with a Scottish sample) which we have not drawn outcome indicators from - principally because they provide data less regularly, or for specific age groups. Nonetheless, they could be useful sources in addressing the key questions, either with currently asked questions or with additional questions requested by GLEWG. These potentially include 'Growing Up in Scotland', the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), now known as Understanding Society, and the Scottish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) Study. Later in 2012 we plan to commission a 'Data Review in support of the Commonwealth Games Legacy Evaluation'. This will establish how we might use these surveys to address our key research questions, whether new questions on the surveys might be desirable, and at what juncture. This work will be completed by summer 2013.

2.18 In collaboration with the Glasgow Evaluation Working Group, we also plan to explore how we might make best use of data collected (regular or bespoke) through the Glasgow Household Survey (GHS) and the Glasgow Health and Wellbeing Survey (GHWS).

2.19 Finally, there are administrative datasets that might prove helpful including those held by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) and the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP). We will be assessing the feasibility of using these survey and administrative data sources to address questions 1, 2, 4 and 5 in particular. At east end level, these data will also be helpful for the GoWell ecological study described below.

C) Prospective Longitudinal Community Study in Glasgow's East End

2.20 Research question 3 asks how the Games (and broader regeneration activity) has impacted on the lives of the local community in Glasgow's east end where much of the new investment is directed. This is not something we can readily answer from existing studies and sources. To this end we have supported a new study area on the GoWell programme[9] as part of the legacy evaluation. This specifically addresses our research question 3 on how the Games (and the broader regeneration activity in the area) has impacted the on the lives of the local community in the area of Glasgow's east most directly affected by the new investment.

2.21 GoWell is an internationally recognised research programme that provides evidence on the impact of regeneration.[10] The study generates quantitative and qualitative evidence on how neighbourhood regeneration and housing investment affect individual health and wellbeing; the degree to which places are transformed through regeneration and housing investment; and the effect of regeneration policy on area-based health and inequalities. One of the main benefits of building on the GoWell programme is the scope for comparability with other regeneration areas in Glasgow on some key outcomes. This could allow us to address the question of 'additionality' of the scale and pace of regeneration in Glasgow's east end, if the regeneration effects are positive. Another potential benefit is the ability to collect baseline data at small area level where it is not available through other sources.

2.22 The new study is a longitudinal community study with several components: survey sweeps planned in 2012, 2014 and 2016; a qualitative component; and an ecological analysis of health and deprivation indicators over the study period. In designing the questionnaire for the survey it has been important to ensure consistency in questions with other GoWell study sites. However, there have been new questions added to the questionnaire that are legacy specific. This includes questions on physical activity and sports participation, support for, benefits and expected engagement with the Glasgow 2014 Games, cultural engagement and volunteering. The team are also using a self-completion physical activity questionnaire for children aged 11-16 (at Wave 1) in the respondent households. This makes use of the Youth Physical Activity Questionnaire (Y-PAQ). This instrument was developed by the MRC Epidemiology Unit in Cambridge. It is currently also being used in a study of the impact of the Olympics upon young people in East London. [11] Finally, an ESRC / Scottish Government PhD has just commenced linked to the GoWell programme which is looking at how legacy programmes affect young people's lives and socio-spatial horizons.

2.23 An Advisory Group has been established to support the study.[12] They met in May 2012 to agree plans for Sweep 1 and again in July 2012 to review progress with Sweep 1 fieldwork. A questionnaire for Sweep 1 was finalised and went into the field in June 2012. The study area covers 6 communities or sub-areas in Glasgow's east end (Calton, Camlachie, Gallowgate, Parkhead, Dalmarnock, and Bridgeton). It is shown in Annex 6.

2.24 At the time of writing 1,015 interviews had been achieved in sweep 1. Sweep 2 will commence immediately after the Games in 2014. The first sweep results will be available in early 2013 and will be incorporated into our legacy evaluation reporting in spring 2014. In 2013 the GoWell team will be developing the ecological study and conducting qualitative research. Results from the second sweep of the survey will be in the post-Games report in 2015.

D) Monitoring and Evaluation of Key Legacy Programmes

2.25 There are many legacy programmes and projects at national, Glasgow and sub-Glasgow level. Some are completely new; others are embedded in existing strategies and policies. Evaluating every one of these programmes and projects would be a major challenge, and probably disproportionate to the Games investment.

2.26 For the purposes of this evaluation we are keen to champion evaluation studies that will help directly address the research questions set out in Chapter 1. Essentially, those legacy programmes with the potential to influence the intermediate and long-term outcomes. We are currently proposing to use the following criteria to prioritise evaluation work - essentially that a programme/project should be considered for, or included in, an evaluation if:

- The evaluation will help address the key research questions - particularly the supplementary questions under 1, 2 and 4 about the contribution of legacy programmes to change.

- The programme/project is initiated, or very clearly strengthened, by hosting Glasgow 2014.

- The programme/project is of sufficient scale, and uptake, to warrant robust evaluation.

- The programme/project potentially (based on theory or evidence) contributes to the achievement of legacy outcome.

2.27 The Scottish Government and a number of partners have firm or tentative plans to evaluate their legacy investments. For example, Creative Scotland has just commissioned work that includes the development of an evaluation framework for the 2014 Cultural Programme. This will report in 2013. Further, sportscotland plan to evaluate the Community Sports Hubs. We will also be working with other funders (for example Sport Relief) to plan the evaluations of the legacy programmes that they fund.

2.28 An important role for GLEWG in the coming months will be to map current and proposed programme evaluations. This will help us to reach a clear consensus on the strategic priorities for evaluation and to decide where we might best place our efforts and resources. Progress on evaluation will be more fully reported in the next legacy evaluation report in spring 2014. It is worth noting, however, that as part of on-going project management, programmes and projects are generally expected to monitor their activities. Monitoring data will increasingly become available and be reported on the Games portal.

E) Economic Assessment

2.29 We plan to assess the economic contribution of the Games over the study period. Hosting major sporting events involve significant upfront expenditures but, nevertheless, have the potential to leave substantial economic legacies in the form of infrastructure and urban renewal. The economic assessment will seek to help answer key research questions within the Flourishing theme.

2.30 It can often be complex to separate the economic effects of the delivery of a major sporting event from the legacy. With this in mind, the economic assessment sets out to evaluate the economic contribution of the Glasgow 2014 Games over the full legacy period (including delivery) across a number of clearly identifiable strands, which may contribute to economic benefits across both across time (when) and spatial (where) dimensions. Figure 2.2 sets out a number of key element of the Games across the 2009-2019 legacy period.

Figure 2.2. Expected timeline of economic impacts

2.31 The GLEWG assessment was that a 'counterfactual' (what would have happened in the absence of the Games investment) was not feasible (see paragraph 1.23) and, therefore, the economic assessment will not provide an overall measure of the economic impact of the Games legacy. As an alternative, it is proposed that the economic assessment pulls together on a number of sources and evaluation approaches to present a narrative of the economic contribution of the Games over the legacy period on the East End, Glasgow and Scotland as a whole.

2.32 The economic assessment will draw on the key components of the Games legacy evaluation framework. There are a number of economic indicators that will be monitored as part of the tracking outcome indicators strand of the evaluation (A), however, monitoring the identified outcome indicators will not constitute on their own the overall economic assessment. There will be additional relevant data generated through secondary analysis (B) and by the GoWell new study area for the East End (C). Furthermore, it is expected that new survey work with spectators, visitors and businesses will be required (and be subject to agreement).

In some cases, new questions may be added to existing or planned surveys to capture required data (for example, the International Passenger Survey). GLEWG will fully scope out this work in the coming months.

2.33 The economic assessment will also make use of the Scottish Government's Input/Output (I/O) model to estimate the output and employment impacts of expenditure linked to the delivery and legacy of the Games. The I/O model estimates contributions to the economy of expenditure both directly, as well as indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain. Impacts are expressed in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA - see pdf page 41-42 for more information on GVA) and the number of full time equivalent (FTE) jobs estimated to be supported in each year. Box 2.3 sets out some initial estimates on the number of jobs and GVA supported by the capital investment on the construction and refurbishment of venues and the Athletes Village in preparation for the Games.

Box 2.3. Scottish Government Input-Output Model Economic Impact Estimates
As a first step, an assessment of the economic contribution of the capital investment on the construction and refurbishment of venues and the Athletes Village for the Games has been estimated using the latest Scottish Government Input-Output model of the economy.

The £500 million overall spending on construction and refurbishment of Games venues and the Athletes Village over the six years leading to 2014 is estimated to support on average around 1,000 jobs and contribute £60 million to Scotland's GVA in each year. At its peak in 2012, where £140 million was invested, around 2,000 FTE jobs and £100 million GVA were supported.

However, there may be other aspects of the economic effect of the Games legacy that the Scottish Government I/O model could provide insights for. For example, each £100 million of tourism spending in 2014 is estimated to support around 1,300 FTE jobs and contribute £50 million to Scottish GVA, with around 70% of the supported jobs in the distribution and catering sectors.

F) Primary Research on Partnership and Leverage

We are planning to conduct some primary research on how the Games investment has affected partnership working, across and between sectors in Scotland, how it has impacted on the confidence and ambition of partners, and to tease out the lessons for the future. The baseline year for this will be 2013, and follow-up will take place after the Glasgow 2014 Games, possibly in 2015 and beyond. At this stage we will be able to assess whether established partnerships have continued beyond 2014 and whether partners were in a position to capitalise on the impacts of the Glasgow 2014 Games. This work has yet to commence.

Table 2.4 - Analytical Plan
Key / supplementary questions

Area

Method

A=active; F=flourishing; C=connected; S=sustainable; O =overarching

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

Outcome Indicators

Secondary Analysis

Gowell

Evaluation studies

Monitoring

Economic modelling

Other primary research

Has there been a change in sport participation and physical activity? [A]

√

√

√

√

√

√

Are sustained changes in physical activity and sports participation evident among particular groups?

√

√

√

√

√

√

Is there evidence for a 'demonstration effect' among those already, or recently, physically active?

√

√

√

√

√

√

Is there evidence of a 'festival effect' among those who are currently sedentary?

√

√

√

√

√

√

Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase physical activity contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

√

√

√

√

What effect has the Games had on businesses, employment and volunteering? [F]

√

√

√

√

√

√

What has been the effect of Games investment on economic outcomes?

√

√

√

√

√

√

How do the outcomes of the Games investment compare with other investments?

√

√

Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to support businesses contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

√

√

√

√

√

Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to support people into employment, training and volunteering contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

√

√

√

√

√

What is the impact of the Games on the lives of the local community in the area of Glasgow's east end most directly affected by the investment? [S, A, F]

√

√

What change is observed over time in key legacy outcomes e.g. (physical activity, cultural engagement, volunteering)?

√

√

Have there been changes in the physical, social and retail environment over time?

√

√

How do changes in key outcomes in this area compare with other similarly disadvantaged areas and regeneration sites in Glasgow? Is there additionality?

√

√

Has there been a change in cultural engagement? [C, F]

√

√

√

√

√

Are sustained changes in cultural engagement evident among particular groups?

√

√

√

√

√

Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase cultural engagement contributed to change? What can we learn for in the future?

√

√

√

√

√

Has there been a change in civic pride and / or international reputation? [C, F]

√

√

√

√

√

√

Has there been a change in civic pride among particular groups?

√

√

√

√

√

√

What aspects of international reputation have changed over time?

√

√

√

Is there a partnership legacy? [O] How have organisations worked together to maximise the Games' opportunities? Did partners capitalise on the impacts of the Games post-2014? What are the lessons for the future?

√

3 Forward Plan and Priorities

Introduction

3.1 This Report 1 has set out our approach to the Games Legacy evaluation, our key questions and the methods that we will use to address those questions between now and 2019. Most of this work has just commenced, or is in development.

3.2 In the 4 Annexes we have introduced each national legacy theme, set out our proposed indicator set and presented the baseline data for 2008 to the latest available year. As stated earlier, while we present baseline data from 2008, it is important to note that we would not expect to see a change in many of these indicators due to the Glasgow 2014 Games at this point.

3.3 We expect to publish a further four evaluation reports between now and 2019.

- A pre-Games report in 2014

- A post-Games report in 2015

- An interim legacy report in 2017

- A final legacy report in 2019

3.4 It is difficult to be absolutely prescriptive at this stage about when results will be available from different elements of this evaluation. However, the table below gives an indication of when various elements of the evaluation should generate data and results.

Table 3.1: Results available at publication date

Priorities to Spring 2014

3.5 There are a number of priorities for the coming 18 months to help refine our approach and to generate the data we need for the pre-Games report in 2014, and for future years. These include:

A) Outcome indicators

- Developing and refining the outcomes map and 'pathways of change'. There will be refinements to the outcomes map as current legacy initiatives build, and new ones come on stream. In addition, we are keen to ensure specific pieces of analysis and evaluations 'test' the theory, or expected 'pathways of change' for programmes and projects.

- Refining and updating the indicator set. We expect to further refine and add to our indicator set as new, or better, indicators become available. This will include a proactive role for GLEWG in addressing key gaps in data. For example, we are planning to generate Scottish data on public support and engagement with the Glasgow 2014 Games through the SHS in 2013 onwards, and to use the Schools Omnibus to generate data on young people's awareness, support and engagement with the Glasgow 2014 Games. We also plan to explore with partners how we might assess media coverage and value. Web-based reporting is planned and should go live in 2013.

B) Secondary analysis

- Assessing the potential of cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys to answer key research questions. We are proposing to commission a scoping exercise to assess the potential of UK, national and Glasgow level cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys to address our key research questions the medium to long term - particularly questions 1, 4, and 5 (referred to earlier as a 'Data Review in support of the Commonwealth Games Legacy Evaluation'). We will also further explore what analysis is possible for equalities groups. This will include an assessment of where we might recommend adding new questions to surveys for future years.

- Undertaking secondary analysis of the Scottish Health Survey 2012. Additional questions on physical activity were asked on the Scottish Health Survey in 2012 and will be available for analysis later in 2013. This will be especially helpful in exploring the relationship between sports participation and physical activity in Scotland. This analysis will begin in later 2013 when the Scottish Health Survey 2012 data become available. There will also be additional questions on culture in the 2013 SHS. In both cases there would be scope for repetition in future years.

C) GoWell

- Reporting on sweep 1 of the GoWell study in Glasgow's east end and developing the qualitative and ecological components. The first findings of this study will report in early 2013. The research team will also be developing and commencing the qualitative element of the GoWell study in 2013, and working on the ecological analysis of the east end. The qualitative work will explore in depth some sweep 1 survey findings.

D) Monitoring and Evaluation studies

- Working with partners to map out legacy programme evaluations and to agree the priorities. We plan to map out current and proposed evaluations of legacy programmes across our partners, and to work with them on agreeing priorities and resources. This includes organisations represented on GLEWG, but also some of the other key legacy funders including BIG and Comic Relief. Development of this strand of the legacy evaluation will be crucial to allow the 'bottom up' evidence on the contribution of legacy programmes and projects.

E) Economic assessment

- Progressing the economic assessment work. As a first step, an assessment of the economic contribution of the capital investment on the construction and refurbishment of venues for the Glasgow 2014 Games has been estimated using the latest Scottish Government Input-Output model of the economy. The next step is for GLEWG to discuss a more detailed proposal for work which draws together a number of sources and evaluation approaches to present a narrative of the economic contribution of the Games over the legacy period on the East End, Glasgow and Scotland as a whole.

F) Primary research on partnership

- Undertaking, or commissioning, research to explore partnership, leverage and collaboration in the pre-Games phase. We are proposing to undertake some work to explore whether the Games venture has changed the way in which partners are working together across Scotland This could constitute a baseline position pre-Games, allowing a post-Games follow up to ascertain whether partners capitalised on the impacts and experience of the Glasgow 2014 Games.

Forward Look

3.6 As outlined above we plan to publish our next report pre-Games in 2014. To keep up to date with developments on this evaluation and other Games related research it is also possible to join our new Commonwealth Games 2014 Legacy group[13] by registering at https://knowledgehub.local.gov.uk/ and applying to join the "Commonwealth Games 2014 Legacy" Group.

Annex 1: Flourishing

Introduction

Both the Scottish Government and Glasgow Legacy Plans emphasise the potential that the Commonwealth Games 2014 offer to contribute to the health of the Scottish and Glasgow's economy, now, during and after the event. The legacy plans focus on the opportunities to strengthen Scottish business, to provide pathways to employment, to foster a culture of volunteering, and to enhance Scotland and Glasgow's international profile as a tourism and events destination.

The recent economic downturn and government spending cuts provide an important backdrop for the evaluation of legacy. As the July 2012 'State of the Economy Report' by Scotland's Chief Economist highlights, [14] the recovery of the Scottish economy remains fragile, with uncertainty from Europe continuing to impact on confidence and investment. Nonetheless, there are hopes that global growth will gather momentum in 2013.

The recent labour market performance in both Scotland and the UK has been mixed and it is yet unclear which direction the future trend will take. Global economic instability and uncertainty continue to exert downward pressure on confidence and demand, posing risks to sustained labour market recovery in both Scotland and the UK as whole in the near term.

Previous Research

There is a substantial body of research that indicates that economic growth can happen as a result of hosting a major sporting event.15, 16 The sustained nature of that growth has been less well researched. It is important to note though, that many of these studies are based on estimated data rather than actual data. Several studies show increases in employment, although there was some concern about the long-term sustainability of these employment opportunities.17, 18, 19, Employment in the construction industry tends to be short-term, but important nonetheless, and perhaps especially so at a time of recession where aggregate demand in the economy is subdued. Investment is a key component of economic growth - both in the short term (by boosting demand in the economy) and in the long term (through its effects on productivity). Further, increased opportunities in the tourism and events industry are dependent on sustained levels of tourism and events business.

Alongside creating and supporting employment, there has also been a focus on improving people's chances on the job market in previous Games, through gains in qualifications and skills, often through volunteering schemes. The Manchester 2002 Commonwealth Games targeted their volunteering programme at disadvantaged groups which has been claimed to increase confidence and aspirations, as well as volunteering opportunities in the future.20, 21, Manchester's approach of targeting disadvantaged groups was very different from the more common strategy of recruiting volunteers who are already skilled and qualified. A total of 127 participants have completed the Personal Best Pilot programme in Glasgow. The programme, similar to that developed for the Manchester Games, offers accredited training to those who have found it difficult to gain entry to the labour market. Evidence from the Glasgow programme has been positive and has informed new developments.[22]

A study looking at 18 major sporting events found an average increase of 8% in tourist numbers.[23] However, there was a large difference between different types of events, with Summer Olympics and FIFA World Cup generating much more tourism than Winter Olympic Games.[24] Moreover, the authors found that this increase was only short-term. Three years following the events there was no average increase in tourism. Several other studies have also noted the lack of long-term tourism impact.[25] Again, a sustained improvement in tourism requires a clear post-Games strategy. Related to this is the substantial body of research highlighting the problem of long-term use of event infrastructure, often referred to as the problem of 'White Elephants'. This research suggests that one of the crucial factors for the lack of success was that there were no long-term plans for legacy.[26] The degree to which the new infrastructure fits with the medium to long-term economic goals of a nation and city will also be important. In Scotland, £269 million of investment in what will be Games venues was planned prior to the bid - £128 million by Glasgow City Council, £29 million by Edinburgh City Council and £112 million by the Scottish Exhibition and Conference Centre.[27]

Strategies and Programmes

For Glasgow2014 legacy planning on the 'flourishing' theme commenced well in advance of the Games, and indeed was a key driver for submitting the bid in 2007. There is a wealth of activity underway on the 'flourishing' theme which we have briefly summarised below as business support and investment, direct employment, employability programmes and volunteering and international reputation.

Business support and investment

There are a number of important initiatives in place to support businesses. The Commonwealth Games Business Portal was launched in 2009, and relaunched in 2011 as the Glasgow Business Portal, to advertise Games contracts. As of 30 June 2012 there were 19,499 Scottish registrations on the Glasgow Business Portal.[28] A total of £276m of Tier 1 contracts have been awarded to date, with £250 million of these to Scottish companies. The total number of contracts awarded up to June 30th 2012 was 418. Of these, 312 (75%) have been let to Scottish companies, and there are still substantial contract opportunities to come.

The experience of and lessons learned from the London 2012 portal, CompeteFor, have informed the enhancement and management of the Glasgow Business Portal. It also appears to have helped the business community to better understand the use of electronic portals and to mitigate their concerns about the difficulty of accessing public sector contracts. It is hoped that the experience of using CompeteFor means that they are in a better position to be business ready and able to go for Commonwealth Games contracts. Evidence for CompeteFor indicated that 33% of those who has used the Portal said that they would use the experience of bidding through CompeteFor to bid for wider government or public sector contracts.

BusinessClub Scotland delivers its aims and objectives through partnership working with Scottish Council for Development and Industry, Scottish Chamber of Commerce, Institute of Directors, Federation of Small Business, EventScotland, and Scottish Enterprise. In principle this should add value to what is already being delivered by partner agencies and avoid duplication of resource. Key aims and objective are to support the business community to exploit economic opportunities available from major sporting and other events hosted in Scotland. To date they have 3,245 members.

It is also important to note that Glasgow has already secured new conference and event business using the infrastructure developed for the Commonwealth Games. It is hoped that this in turn will continue to help bring in new business and investment. The state-of-the-art facilities improved or built for the Glasgow 2014 and the 17 sports have enabled Glasgow and Scotland to secure 23 high-profile national and international events at the time of writing. The securing of some of these pre-Games events reflect the intention to ensure legacies are derived in advance. This is in contrast to the 'test events' usually held immediately in advance of Games and primarily for the purpose of testing Games delivery. The addition of the Scottish Hydro Arena (due to open in 2013) is also significantly enhancing this infrastructure. In 2014 Scotland is also hosting The Ryder Cup and Scotland's Year of Homecoming 2014. All the key agencies are working together to ensure that they have strategic plans in place that will capitalise on the opportunities that will flow from all the major events, both local and global that will happen over the next decade.

Tourism

VisitScotland are working to use the equity of the Commonwealth Games in 2014 as part of a shared approach to Scotland welcoming the world. This approach will include Homecoming 2014, the Ryder Cup and other major events spanning 2014. VisitScotland aims to identify and convert these opportunities and the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow to deliver additional tourism benefits to the visitor economy, at the same time as demonstrating Scotland's credentials as the perfect stage for hosting major global events, sporting and cultural. In the Scottish Draft Budget 2013/2014 VisitScotland will receive an additional £1.5 million in 2012-13 for marketing campaigns to attract visitors and revenue to Scotland, and receive additional resource from budget consequentials of £1.2 million in 2013-14 and in 2014-15 to support the Scottish Open golf tournament.

A strategic outline has now been agreed with VisitScotland and Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee (OC), which will see extensive cross-messaging across the organisations' core marketing activities to target both Games fans and core domestic and international traveller audiences. In addition specific markets including athletes' family and friends, and long-stay, higher yield visitors from Canada, Australia and India may be targeted in a partnership approach involving VisitScotland, Glasgow City Marketing Bureau and the Organising Committee. Extensive work to exploit broadcast opportunities during the 2012 Olympics for the promotion of Scotland and our Year of Creative Scotland messages has already built valuable relationships ahead of 2014, when VisitScotland will again exploit these for global communication of Scotland's strengths.

Employment

Employment is being supported directly in a number of ways by the Games preparation, delivery and legacy. The Organising Committee (OC) continues to be a major source of employment leading up to Games time. It is steadily recruiting to fill key positions to build a core team that will comprise around 1,100 staff. It also has a substantial number of contract opportunities for supplies and services required for the Games, many of which are still to come.

There have been a large number of contract opportunities for supplies and services around the construction of the Games venues, resulting in employment. Some of that employment will, by its nature, be temporary. Overall spending on the construction and refurbishment of venues, and the Athletes Village in the six years leading to 2014 is estimated to support an average of around 1,000 jobs in each year (see para. 2.33). In addition, the URC's Games-related construction and refurbishment projects have directly supported around 170 jobs up to the end of March 2012. Once complete, these projects can potentially support a significant number of full time equivalent jobs. At the next stage, as venues come on stream, jobs in other sectors will be supported. All these activities support other indirect and induced jobs in the economy.

Further, a number of specific Games-related employability funds and programmes have been launched:

- The Scottish Government launched a Legacy 2014 Young Persons Fund in March 2012 with the aim of giving 2,500 young people the opportunity to gain employment opportunities at the major events Scotland will host in the years to come. The first of two programmes of activity is now underway. Skills Development Scotland (SDS) is providing incentives to employers to offer sports or events-related Moden Apprenticeships (MAs) for 16-19 year olds anywhere in Scotland. This includes MA frameworks that feature an element of sport, retail, events management, and hospitality which support the sports industry in Scotland.

- Glasgow City Council have also launched their Commonwealth Apprenticeships Commonwealth Jobs Fund and Graduate Programme. Since the launch of these GCC initiatives, 2,026 young people from across Glasgow have started Apprenticeships. Glasgow City Council continues to work to ensure that this investment in apprenticeships results in long term labour market success for the young people.

- 57 previously unemployed, young people from across Glasgow have secured employment through the Jobs Fund, which has been extended to include 16 and 17 year olds.

- Community Benefit Clauses in Glasgow City Council let Games-related contracts aim to help get local people into employment. They place a legal requirement on public sector contractors to employ 10% of their project workforce from key target groups, including the long term unemployed.

Volunteering

The Games also offer the opportunity to get the Scottish public involved, or further involved, in volunteering in all sorts of ways. The Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee has now developed a volunteering strategy for the Glasgow 2014 Games. Around 15,000 volunteers will be needed for the Glasgow 2014 Games, and recruitment will begin shortly. Volunteering is central to the successful delivery of all major sporting events. The volunteers required will cover the broad spectrum of roles and responsibilities at the Games, including the most technical and specialist roles. There may be an opportunity to build on the experience of individuals from Scotland who were Gamemakers in London2012.

There are a number of other volunteering initiatives either underway or at the planning stage. For example:

- EventTeam Scotland, launched in January 2011, is an online database which 'matchmakes' event volunteers and event organisers. It provides a one-stop shop to allow volunteers to link with events, gain experience, use existing skills, gain new skills, and enjoy events. The site has had over 1,400 volunteer registrations with 62 events registered 25 of which are live events offering opportunities.

- People Making Waves is a UK-wide volunteering programme inspired by London 2012 inviting volunteers to connect with the Olympic and Paralympic Games through a range of cultural activities. Since its launch in 2009, it continues to help share the experience of volunteering across its four projects. People across Scotland are already getting involved with over 1300 members and 500 stories of volunteers' experiences on the website. For more information please visit People Making Waves.

- There are 113 Youth Legacy Ambassadors (YLA) across Scotland whose role is to champion the legacy of the Glasgow 2014 Game (and of London 2012) to other young people and their local community and help promote the benefits major sporting events can bring and leave behind for Scotland's young people. The work of the Youth Legacy Ambassadors is complemented by over 300 young ambassadors recruited across local authorities with the help of Youth Sport Trust and sportscotland to support London 2012's ambitions to involve young people and increase participation in sport. The work of both these groups of ambassadors will add significantly to the local reach of the Games.

- During London 2012, four YLAs were successful in securing internships at Scotland House as young social reporters. The young people attended various Olympics events and created blogs, videos, reports and diaries about the Scotland House Olympics activities. Several other YLAs were in London during the Olympics in various roles. Youth Legacy Ambassadors also took part in the first International Cultural Summit held at the Scottish Parliament. Four YLAs were recruited to the position of Delegate Aid, collecting the delegates from the airport and being their first point of contact for the event.

- Glasgow Life is leading on the Host City Ambassador programme. The programme recruited 192 Host City Ambassadors to ensure that the Olympic events in Scotland - the football matches at Hampden Park - ran efficiently and gave the visitors, the spectators, the residents, and the volunteer a valuable experience. The Ambassadors were trained and supported and have been encouraged to continue volunteering after the Olympics, paving the way for them to be recruited in 2014.

Civic pride and international reputation

Finally, partners are keen to use the opportunity of the Games to increase civic pride in Scotland, and enhance the international reputation of Scotland. This is relevant to a number of the legacy themes, including 'flourishing'. There is no single effort or 'programme' that aims to achieve this, but there is an aspiration that the overall Games effort will increase civic pride and international reputation. We have included indicators in our work which will help measure whether these have changed over time.

Flourishing- Headline Indicators

HEADLINE INDICATORS

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

Source

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase growth of Scottish businesses

F1: Gross Value Added (GVA) in key sectors

√

√

X

ABS

F2: Business stock - number of business sites in key sectors:

√

√

SCSS

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase movement into employment, training and volunteering

F3: Employment in key sectors

√

√

X

BRES

F4: Claimant Count - Number and proportion of people on unemployment benefit, alongside unemployment data.

√

√

DWP

F5: School leavers in sustained positive destinations - percentage reported annually.

√

√

X

SLDS

F6: Modern Apprenticeships - number of New Starts, In Training, and Leavers.

√

√

X

SDS

F7: Adults providing unpaid help to organisations or groups - percentage reported annually, by type of unpaid help

√

√

GW

SHS

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the perception of Scotland as a world class destination for business, events and tourism

F8: Perception of Scotland internationally - exports.

√

X

X

NBI

F9: Perception of Scotland internationally - tourism.

√

X

X

NBI

F10: Rank and score as a business location - best city to locate a business in today among European cities.

X

√

X

CW

F11: Rank and score as a major event destination - Glasgow.

X

√

X

TBD

F12: Tourist Visits - Overseas & UK Tourists (Trips).

√

√

X

IPS/
GBTS/UKTS

F13: Tourist Expenditure - Overseas and UK Tourists Expenditure (£).

√

√

X

IPS/
GBTS/UKTS

F14: Hotel occupancy (Glasgow) - Annual Average Hotel occupancy (%) and July-September occupancy.

√

√

X

SAOS

√ available x not available / not applicable GW - through the GoWell study context ABS - Annual Business Survey; APS - Annual Population Survey; BRES - Business Register Employment Survey; DWP - Department of Work and Pensions; SDS = Skills Development Scotland; SHS - Scottish Household Survey; NBI-Nations Brand Index; IPS - International Passenger Survey; GBTS/UKTS = Great Britain Tourist Survey/UK Tourism Survey; SAOS = Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey; CW - Cushman & Wakefield.

Tracking Indicators Since Baseline

In this section we look at the latest available data for all the 'flourishing' indicators and examine recent trends since 2008. We also look briefly at what we know about the outcomes for sub-groups, where appropriate and available. Some of the economic data has a long time-lag from collection to publication, so in some cases data only to 2010 are available.

It is important to note at this stage, as set out in chapter 2, that the indicators presented here are, in theory, amenable to change due to the Games, but they only form part of the picture. As our work progresses, economic assessment, primary research and evaluation will provide the 'bottom-up' evidence that will help assess the contribution of the Games specifically. More of these data will be available for the next report in 2014.

1) Increase growth of Scottish businesses

Two indicators are presented under this intermediate outcome; Gross Value Added (GVA) and business stock. Employment is also relevant, and is presented in the next section. However, arguably changes in these indicators might be seen in certain sectors of the economy, at certain times, rather than across the economy as a whole. So data for relevant key sectors will also be monitored. These have been agreed as:

- Construction;

- Sports activities and recreation education;

- Sustainable tourism;

- Creative Industries; and,

- Manufacture of Food and Beverages.

Data on sports and leisure which is collected as part of sustainable tourism will be presented separately for the purposes of evaluating the impact of the Games. Key sector data also appears under the other legacy theme areas. For example, the GVA for sports activity and recreation education will be used to assess progress on 'active'.

F1: GVA in key sectors

Why is this indicator important? The strength of the economy is measured by calculating the nation's output or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP estimates produced for Scotland are measured in basic prices, which exclude taxes less subsidies in products. Gross Value Added (GVA) is another term for GDP at basic prices.

If the effect of the Commonwealth Games on the Scottish economy is big enough then Scotland's and/or Glasgow's GVA should increase in key sectors at particular times. In the early stages of the Games endeavour we would particularly expect to see a contribution to GVA in the construction sector.

There are a number of different measures of GVA for Scotland:

- The quarterly GDP index is the preferred source for measuring real (inflation-adjusted) GVA change over time - for the Scottish economy as a whole and for broad sectors of the Scottish economy;[29]

- The Scottish National Account Project (SNAP) published data series is the preferred source for current price (non-inflation-adjusted) GVA - for the Scottish economy as a whole and for broad sectors of the Scottish economy; and,[30]

- Approximate GVA from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) is the preferred source for current price (non-inflation-adjusted) GVA - for detailed industry sectors within Scotland/local areas.31, 32,

Approximate Gross Value Added (aGVA) represents the amount that individual businesses, industries or sectors contribute to the economy. Generally, this is measured by the income generated by the business, industry or sector less their intermediate consumption of goods and services used up in order to produce their output. As we are interested in measuring GVA of detailed industry key sectors and at a local authority area level for Glasgow we are using the ABS sourced measure of approximate GVA.

Table F1: GVA at basic prices (£m), 2008 - 2010

Sector

Scotland 2008

Scotland 2009

Scotland 2010

Glasgow 2008

Glasgow 2009

Glasgow 2010

Construction

7,909

5,979

5,963

1,034

930

890

Sports activities and Recreation education

440

610

429

103

129

92

Of which: Sport & Leisure

96

145

114

4

4

5

Sustainable Tourism

2,594

2,768

2882

298

500

291

Creative Industries

3,031

2,748

2,671

899

683

620

Manufacture of Food & Beverages

3,708

3,863

3,590

484

473

373

Source: Annual Business Survey, ONS (Calculations by Scottish Government)

What do the data tell us? As we might expect in an economic downturn GVA has, in the main, decreased across key sectors between 2008 and 2010 - both at national and Glasgow level. The Scottish economy entered recession in early 2008 before returning to growth in late 2009. In some cases, fluctuations are observed rather than a simple downward trend.

F2: Business stock

Why is this indicator important? Any increase in the number of business locations is a good indicator of an active entrepreneurial climate in the economy. For the purposes of this evaluation the number of sites will be measured, rather than the number of enterprises, as this is a more sensitive measure of change within a specific geographical area. In the same way as for GVA the number of businesses in key sectors will be monitored to explore whether change is occurring in specific sectors rather than the economy as a whole.

Business start-ups are also a possible indicator for measuring change in entrepreneurship. However, the stock of business sites is influenced by business start-ups and business survival - and the Commonwealth Games may have an impact on both these elements. Furthermore, official business start-ups rates are measured at an enterprise level, rather than at a business site level - and measuring at an enterprise level reduces the sensitivity. For example, if a restaurant chain (the enterprise) already operating in the East End opens a new restaurant this would not result in an increase in the number of enterprises but would result in an increase in the number of business sites operating in the East End of Glasgow.

What do the data tell us? Overall the number of business sites for key sectors in the East End has remained relatively constant. An overall decrease in construction sites is observed for both Glasgow and Scotland between 2008 and 2011 which we might expect in an economic downturn. In Glasgow business sites for sports activities and recreational education and the manufacture of food and beverages has decreased slightly, and there is a slight increase in sustainable tourism business and creative industries sites. A similar, though not identical, picture is evident at Scotland level.

Table F2: Number of business sites by sector: East End, Glasgow and Scotland

2008

2009

2010

2011

East End

Construction

75

80

85

80

Sports activities and recreation education

10

5

5

5

Sustainable Tourism

65

65

65

70

Creative Industries

80

90

90

90

Manufacture of Food and Beverages

10

5

5

5

All sites operating in the East End

935

970

955

940

Glasgow

Construction

1590

1615

1590

1475

Sports activities and recreation education

155

135

135

140

Sustainable Tourism

1700

1720

1745

1775

Creative Industries

1800

1850

1870

1945

Manufacture of Food and Beverages

95

95

95

85

All sites operating in Glasgow

19,770

19,875

19,795

19,530

Scotland

Construction

20190

20255

19585

18780

Sports activities and recreation education

1945

1790

1840

1775

Sustainable Tourism

15260

15455

15445

15225

Creative Industries

11445

11820

11985

12345

Manufacture of Food and Beverages

1225

1210

1160

1095

All sites operating in Scotland

186,210

186,295

185,060

182,995

Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, ONS (Calculations by Scottish Government)

2) Increase movement into employment, training and volunteering

Five indicators have been selected under this intermediate outcome: employment; claimant count; school leavers in sustained, positive destinations; numbers of modern apprenticeships; and adults providing unpaid help to organisations or groups. In the case of the employment data we are using the same key sectors as for GVA and business stock.

F3: Employment

Why is this indicator important? Labour market participation is a key driver of economic growth. Although, there is a limited amount of evidence to suggest that direct employment and contracting of the Glasgow 2014 Games preparation, delivery and legacy will have a positive impact on employment, particularly in Glasgow and the surrounding area, it will be difficult to attribute any increases in directly to the Commonwealth Games using this indicator alone.

There is a wide range of data available to monitor changes in employment, however, for the purpose of this analysis data from the Business Register Employment Survey (BRES) produced by the ONS will be used.

The preferred source of headline employment level and rates, for Scotland and local authority areas, is the Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS). Data from the LFS/APS will be key to understanding any employment gains amongst specific groups such as young people. However, the BRES is preferred source for estimates of employment by detailed industry for Scotland and local authority areas within Scotland.

Unlike other sources of employment data, the BRES is based on information from employers rather than self-reported by respondents to a household survey. This results in more robust information on the number of jobs by industry compared to other sources such as the Labour Force Survey. However, due to the complexity of the data collection process there are a number of methodological discontinuities which affect time series analysis. There is also approximately a one year lag between collection and publication.

The BRES data is presented from 2009 onwards, as 2009 was the first year of the full BRES survey. BRES produces estimates of employment (employees plus working proprietors) and includes self-employed workers if they are registered for VAT or Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) schemes.[33]

What do the data tell us? Overall, latest data from BRES is broadly in line with employment data from the Workforce Jobs. For Scotland a decrease in employment is observed, between 2009 and 2010, for all key sectors - except employment in the Manufacture of Food and Drink. A similar decrease for Glasgow can be seen accross Construction, Sustainable Tourism and Creative Industries employment decreased between 2009 and 2010. However, for Glasgow employment in the 'Sports Activities and Recreation Education' remained flat between 2009 and 2010, compared to a fall in Scotland as a whole. Construction employment has increased in Scotland as a whole between 2010 and 2011. For Glasgow we can't really draw any firm conclusions on the change in construction employment between 2010 and 2011 - however, it is evident that a sharp fall experienced in construction employment for Glasgow between 2009 and 2010 has not continued into 2011.

Table F3: Employment by key sector (Scotland and Glasgow), 2009-2010 and 2011[34]

Scotland

Glasgow

Sector

2009

2010

2011

2009

2010

2011

Construction

148,000

135,900

140,800

20,400

17,700

17,300

Sports activities and recreation education

34,900

33,300

38,500

3,900

3,900

4,100

Sustainable Tourism

191,100

184,500

185,900

26,300

25,200

24,600

Sport and Leisure also included in Tourism

15,300

14,400

15,400

900

1,100

1,200

Creative Industries

76,700

72,100

64,100

18,700

17,300

16,900

Manufacture of Food and Beverages

43,200

43,900

45,000

5,100

5,100

5,500

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS (Calculations by Scottish Government)

F4: Claimant count - Number and proportion of 16-64 year olds claiming unemployment benefit

Why is this indicator important? This indicator measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, i.e. Job Seekers Allowance (JSA). People who are out of work or working less than 16 hours a week may be eligible to claim JSA if they are: capable to work; available for work; activity seeking work; and, below the pension age.

We have included this indicator because we know that the Games have, and will continue, to support jobs through direct employment and contracting. It is hoped that any increases in employment as a result of the Games will be driven by decreases in unemployment. Unemployment data is not available below local authority level, whereas claimant count data is available for small geographic areas. One would expect that all people on claimant count to be defined as unemployed, however, not all unemployed people are on the claimant count; some people may choose not to claim benefits whilst others may not be eligible (e.g some under 18's). Consequently the number of unemployed people is always higher than the number of people on the claimant count. Despite this undercount, there are a number of key advantages to using claimant count data: it is available for small geographic areas; it is available on a timely basis; it is from an administrative system so is not subject to sampling error; and, a range of disaggregations are available.

However, we note at this stage that there are wider economic forces and welfare reforms that will have a greater influence on this indicator than the Games themselves, for example the underlying indicator will change as a result of the introduction of Universal Credit. Data from other sources may help us build a more robust picture of the impact of the Games on the unemployed. However, even using the range of data available it will be difficult to attribute any reductions in the claimant count directly to the Commonwealth Games as only limited information is available as to the reasons people leave the claimant count.

What do the data tell us? The number and proportion of people aged 16-64 claiming unemployment benefit rose both in Scotland as a whole and Glasgow between 2008 and 2012. This is a rise in rates from 2.4 to 4.0 at national level, and 3.8 to 5.7 at Glasgow level. There was a very small 0.3 decrease in the rate between 2011 and 2012 in Glasgow. This overall increase in the number and proportions of people claiming benefit can be seen as a direct result of the generally weak economic conditions both across the UK and globally. While the Games will support jobs across numerous sectors over the legacy period (2008-2019) - as evidence in modelling estimates - there are wider economic and policy forces at play that will drive overall claimant count levels.

The trend in claimant count rates is different to the trend in the unemployment rate over the past year. The unemployment rate at national level has increased (up 0.1 percentage point based on LFS data for May-Jul 2012) whereas claimant count has remained unchanged. Since 2008, the gap between the International Labour Organization (ILO) unemployment rate and the claimant count rate has almost doubled (from around 1.6 percentage points in 2008 to around 3.0 percentage points in 2012). The reasons for the increase in this gap are complex, and may be due to the underlying make-up of the unemployed population affecting the number of people eligible to claim JSA. Ongoing changes to the benefits system will impact claimant count going forward.

Table F4: Total claimant count with rates (Scotland and Glasgow) 2008 - 2012

Date

Scotland

Glasgow

Count

Rate*

Count

Rate*

September 2008

81,243

2.4

15,428

3.8

September 2009

129,569

3.8

23,194

5.7

September 2010

129,964

3.8

24,664

5.9

September 2011

140,010

4.1

24,775

6.0

September 2012

135,736

4.0

23,647

5.7

Source: Claimant Count, ONS * Proportion of resident population aged 16-64 estimates

F5: Percentage of school leavers in sustained positive destinations

Why is this indicator important? The successful transition of young people from compulsory education into positive and sustained learning, training or work is of great importance individually, and to wider society. There is a strong association between under-achievement and unemployment. We know that young people who experience a period out of learning or training are more likely to become unemployed than those who participate. The Commonwealth Games has provided an opportunity to increase opportunities for apprenticeships and other interventions which might affect this indicator over time, but starting in the pre-Games phase.

What do the data tell us? In 2011, 87% of school leavers were in positive destinations across Scotland. There has been a small, but steady, increase of young people in positive destinations since 2008. The proportion of young people entering Higher or Further Education has increased from 56% in 2008 to 63% per cent in 2011. The proportion of leavers entering employment has increased from 18% in September 2010 to 19% in September 2011, although this remains below the 25% seen in 2008. This probably reflects the current difficult economic climate with fewer labour market opportunities expected to lead to a greater demand for places in Higher and Further Education. In 2011, 82% of school leavers were in positive destinations in Glasgow. This also represents an increase since 2008 when 78% were in positive destinations.

Percentage of school leavers in sustained positive destinations: Scotland and Glasgow, 2008-2011

Source: School Leavers Destination Survey

F6: Modern Apprenticeships - new starts, in training and leavers

Why is this indicator important? Modern Apprenticeships offer people aged over 16 the opportunity of paid employment combined with training at different levels. They help people gain skills and nationally recognised qualifications without full time study and are available across a wide range of industries. The Legacy 2014 Young Persons Fund and Glasgow City Council's Commonwealth Apprenticeships will contribute to the development of modern apprenticeships over the next few years. We note that the key evidence we may require in the future will not be this indicator in itself, but a longer-term follow-up of those who complete these apprenticeships to determine their success.

Modern apprenticeships, Scotland 2008-2011

Source: Skills Development Scotland

What do the data tell us? There has been an increase in new starts, those in training and leavers from modern apprenticeship schemes between 2008 and 2011 at national level. By 2011, 35,262 modern apprentices were 'in training' across Scotland. This represents a substantial increase since 2008 when 26,614 were 'in training'. As we would expect, there is also a corresponding increase in both 'new starts' and 'leavers' over this 4 year period.

As we might expect, there has also been an increase at Glasgow level of new starts, those in training and leavers from modern apprenticeships between 2008 and 2011. By 2011, 4,201 modern apprentices were 'in training' in Glasgow. A substantial increase from the 2008 figure of 2,792. There is, unsurprisingly, a corresponding increase in new starts and leavers over this period. In 2011 the Glasgow City Council apprenticeship scheme had over 600 participants, making an important contribution to the overall total in Glasgow.

Modern apprentices in Glasgow 2008-2011

Source: Skills Development Scotland

F7: Percentage of adults providing help to organisations or groups

Why is this indicator important? This indicator provides a population-wide measure of unpaid help to organisations or groups, which we are using as an indicator of volunteering. If a demonstrable legacy from the Commonwealth Games is an increase in volunteering we would hope to see some change in this indicator.

Percentage of adults providing unpaid help to organisations or groups

Source: Scottish Household Survey

What do the data tell us? The proportion of people providing unpaid help to organisations or groups has remained fairly constant since 2007 nationally and in Glasgow. A total of 30% of Scottish adults provided unpaid help in 2009/2010 compared to 31% in 2007/2008. There are similar percentages of men and women overall (27% of men and 31% of women in 2009/10). The biggest difference between males and females is within the 35 to 44 age group, where a higher proportion of females (38%) provided unpaid help than males (29%). This is also lower among men aged 25 to 34 compared to some of the other age groups; just over one fifth (22%) of men in this age group reported providing unpaid help. Around one-in-five (22%) of all adults from lower income households (earning less than £15,000) provided unpaid help in the last 12 months, compared to nearly twice that (41%) among those with a net household income of more than £40,000. In Glasgow 25% of adults provided unpaid help to organisations or individuals in the last 12 months in 2007/2008 and 23% in 2009/2010. In future reports we also expect to provide results disaggregated by type of unpaid help - including 'sport-related'.

3) Improve the perception of Scotland as a world class destination for business, events and tourism

Seven indicators have been selected under this intermediate outcome; two measure of perception of Scotland from the Nations Brand Index (NBI), some city ranking indexes for Glasgow, total visitor numbers and expenditure, and hotel occupancy. These indicators are generally available on an annual (or more regular basis), though Scottish questions on the NBI are moving to a bi-annual basis and will next report later in 2012 and 2014.

F8: Perception of Scotland internationally - Nations Brand Index, exports

Why is this indicator important? This indicator represents Scotland's reputation abroad in terms of its economic strength and potential. The survey asks three questions which cover science and technology, products and services, and leading creativity and innovation. These data are based on yearly interviews with approximately 20,000 adults aged 18 above in 20 core panel nations. Participants score 50 target nations on six dimensions, including exports.

Natins Brand Index scores: exports

Source: Nations Brand Index

What do the data tell us? The exports dimension has changed very little from 2008 to 2010. It is ranked 21st out of 50 participating nations in 2008, 22nd in 2009 and 23rd in 2010. It is important to note that the rank order is dependent on which target nations are included. These tend to vary from one year to the next. The survey data shows that panellists who tend to be most familiar with and favourable towards Scotland overall are from English-speaking and Commonwealth nations and close European neighbours. For the purpose of comparison over time, the overall score which can range from 0 to 100 is therefore more informative. The score varied from 54.6 in 2008 to 53.45 in 2010. Looking at each of the 3 elements scored within Exports, Scotland's reputation for products and services was its strongest ranking question in this dimension (17th). However, Scotland's scores in these areas tended to fall in "don't know/neutral" categories, suggesting that people did not recognise Scotland for Exports when thinking about its reputation, rather that giving a negative/poor reputation for Exports.

F9 Perception of Scotland internationally - Nations Brand Index, tourism

Why is this indicator important? This indicator represents Scotland's reputation abroad in terms of its image as a tourist destination. The survey asks questions which cover participants' willingness to visit (money being no object), natural beauty, historic landmarks and city/urban attractions. As noted earlier, these data are based on yearly interviews with approximately 20,000 adults aged 18 above in 20 core panel nations.

Nations Brand Index scores: tourism

Source: Nations Brand Index

What do the data tell us? The tourism dimension remains Scotland's reputational 'peak' on the Nations Brand Index. It is ranked 12th/13th out of 50 participating nations in 2008-2010. As aforementioned, rank order is dependent on which target nations are included. For the purpose of comparison over time, the overall score which can range from 0 to 100 is therefore more informative. The score varied from 69.10 in 2008 to 67.39 in 2010.

F10: Rank and score as a business location (best city to locate a business today among European cities)

Why is this indicator important? The Cushman and Wakefield European Cities Monitor examines key issues that organisations consider when assessing new locations for business. The specific question we are using as an indicator is 'best city to locate a business today', and addresses a specific component of international reputation. We might hope to see an effect on this indicator based on the preparation and hosting of the Commonwealth Games. In 2011 senior executives from 501 European companies gave their views on Europe's leading business cities.

What do the data tell us? The Table below shows Glasgow's rank and score between 2008 and 2011. There has been a slight improvement in score over time, sitting at 0.05 in 2011. It is important to note that the denominator number of cities included changes over time.

Table F5 Scores and Rank for Glasgow from Cushman and Wakefield Monitor 'best city to locate a business today'.

2008

2009

2010

2011

Rank

26 (of 34)

29 (of 34)

29 (or 36)

30 (of 36)

Score

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.05

Source: Cushman and Wakefield Monitor

F11: Rank and score as a major event destination

The data to be used for this indicator is yet to be determined. We have looked at a number of possible measures of Scotland or Glasgow as a major event destination. This includes the International Association of Conference Centres (IACC) rankings and other city indexes. We are also looking at the Global Sports Impact Project (GSI) that Sportcal are currently developing. Their aim is to create an internationally accepted methodology for measuring the impact of events thus enabling events to be compared across a standard set of indicators. We hope to report on this indicator in 2014.

F12: Visits from UK and Overseas Tourists (Trips)

Overseas visits to Scotland are estimated using the International Passenger Survey. The data are published quarterly by the UK Office for National Statistics. Domestic visits by Great British residents are currently estimated using the Great Britain Tourism Survey. These are published quarterly by VisitScotland.

Why are these indicators important? We would expect to see an increase in visits to Scotland and Glasgow around the time of the Games, and indeed in 2014 as a whole as a result of the Games, Ryder Cup and Homecoming that year. However, we may also expect to see a more sustained rise in domestic and overseas visits with the improved and new infrastructure described earlier and with an increase in the profile of Scotland internationally.

What do the data tell us? The number of combined visits to Scotland in 2011 was down 9% on the 2005 total, but there has been a slight increase between 2010/2011. And since the global recession in 2008 overseas visitor numbers have been relatively stable, falling slightly from 2.5 million in 2008 to 2.35 million in 2011. Domestic visits have increased from just over 12 million in 2008 to 13.4 million in 2011. Note that the 2011 figure excludes overnight visits from Northern Ireland. In Glasgow, the number of visits from within the UK increased from 1.68 million in 2008 to 1.75 million in 2010. From 2011 data are based on Great Britain visits (GB) rather the UK, and we see 1.73 million visits from within GB during 2011.[35] There was a slight decrease in the number of overseas visitors to Glasgow from 0.63 million in 2008 to 0.48 million in 2011.[36]

Total Overnight Tourism Visits to Scotland - 2005 to 2011

Source: International Passenger Survey (2005-2011), UK Tourism Survey (2005-2010), GB Tourism Survey (2011) – note this excludes overnight visits from Northern Ireland

F13: UK and overseas tourist expenditure

Why are these indicators important? In addition to seeing an increase in visits per se we might also hope to see an increase in tourist expenditure, particularly if the marketing of the Games to target, high yield countries is successful.

What do the data tell us? Adjusting for inflation using 2011 prices, expenditure from overseas visits has remained relatively stable over the three years since 2008 at just under £1.5 billion. Expenditure from domestic visits has shown a bounce back in 2011 to around £3.0 billion. Using 2011 prices, in Glasgow expenditure from domestic overnight visits from the UK has fallen from £415 million in 2008 to £375 million in 2010. It should be noted that in 2011 visit data changed to relate to GB rather than the UK; expenditure data for GB in 2011 is £385 million in Glasgow.[37] Using 2011 prices, international spending patterns in Glasgow have increased from £222 million in 2008 to £236 million in 2010 before falling to £193 million in 2011.[38]

Expenditure by overnight visitors to Scotland 2005 - 2011 (in 2011 prices)

Source: International Passenger Survey (2005-2011), UK Tourism Survey (2005-2010), GB Tourism Survey (2011) – note this excludes overnight visits from Northern Ireland

F14 Hotel occupancy (Glasgow) - Annual Average Hotel occupancy (%) and July/August occupation

Why is this indicator important? Hotel occupancy in Glasgow can be used as an indicator of economic activity and international reputation. We would clearly expect to see an increase in hotel occupancy rates at the time of the Games, but also more genrally in response to an increase in international reputation and profile. Hotel occupancy data is collected through the Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey which is used extensively by VisitScotland.

What do the data tell us? Both the Scottish and Glasgow hotel occupancy rates have increased since the baseline of 2008. This is both annually (see graph) and for the summer quarter (which we've defined as the period July - September). By 2011 hotel occupancy annually was 65% in Scotland and 69% in Glasgow. This was from a 2008 baseline of 63% and 63% respectively. For the summer period hotel occupancy was 79% for Scotland and 81% for Glasgow. This was from a baseline of 74% and 76% respectively. Over this period it should be noted that Glasgow has seen an increase in supply in the hotel sector.

Hotel occupancy annually (%) Scotland and Glasgow

Source: Visit Scotland

Conclusions

Overall it is too early to make judgements about the contribution of the Games to any shift in these indicators. As we would expect in an economic downturn, GVA and employment have, in the main, decreased across key sectors between 2008 and 2010 - both at national and Glasgow level. The Scottish economy entered recession in early 2008 before returning to growth in late 2009. The proportion of people providing unpaid help to organisations or groups has remained fairly constant since 2007 nationally and in Glasgow and we may not expect to see any change in that indicator until nearer Games time. Since the recession in 2008 overseas visitor numbers have been relatively stable, but domestic visitors have increased. Adjusting for inflation, overseas visitor expenditure has remained relatively stable over the three years since 2008, whereas domestic visitor expenditure has shown a bounce back in 2011. There has been an increase in annual and seasonal hotel occupancy since 2008. Other indicators of city and international reputation have remained relatively constant since 2008.

Annex 2: Active

Introduction

The 2014 Commonwealth Games present an opportunity to inspire Scots both young and old to become - and stay - physically active. There is good evidence that meeting physical activity recommendations can protect against many of Scotland's leading chronic diseases, and promote positive mental health and wellbeing. The recent Lancet series reported that 9% of premature mortality worldwide can be attributed to physical inactivity.[39] In Scotland the Games provide an opportunity for increased mobilisation of resources, to deliver the physical activity and sports agenda.

Previous Research

Previous research on major sporting events has not evidenced a physical activity, or sports participation legacy as a result of hosting or at least not one that has been robustly tested.[40] Overall, the evidence that exists provides a very mixed picture. Importantly, no Games prior to the London 2012 Olympics appear to have employed strategies that should explicitly, and potentially, raise physical activity or sport participation[41]. Although other events have made claims over sport participation - e.g. Sydney 2000 and Beijing 2008's aspiration to increase levels from 34.9% to 40%.

The evidence does, however, give a steer on how a physical activity legacy might be achieved. A systematic review of the evidence carried out for the 2012 Olympics on the physical activity legacy created by hosting sporting events identified that a "demonstration" effect might be best harnessed to target current or lapsed participants to encourage more frequent involvement. How this works may not be straightforward as Lyle (2009) showed that role models have only limited impact and athletic success does not readily translate to more sporting engagement[42]. For those who are currently sedentary or "pre-contemplative" the 2012 Olympics review found that encouragement to consider involvement in physical activity could be fostered by a "festival effect" in a celebration that transcends purely sport.

However, research also suggests that the link between the major sporting event and community participation needs to be carefully planned and implemented, and that this should include the improvement of facilities and emphasis on grassroots sport participation and physical activity. Finally, the review suggests that games-related initiatives should be effectively linked in with long-term programmes to secure sustained engagement, and the range of services and opportunities for participation should be increased. The festival and demonstration effects are short term, "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunities, so long term facilities and capacity must be in place and ready to respond.

Strategies and Interventions

So, the evidence would suggest that alignment of legacy programmes with Scotland's Physical Activity Strategy, Let's Make Scotland More Active (LMSMA) and Reaching Higher the national strategy for sport, is desirable. Not only is this a sounder tactic for creating a legacy, but the existing policy frameworks are themselves evidence-based. Accordingly some key legacy programmes aim to accelerate and enhance the strategies in the following ways.

1. High quality environments

LMSMA's call for provision of high-quality environments to encourage inactive people take up exercise is reflected in the commitment to grow, develop and invest in Community Sports Hubs (CSHs). CSHs are part of sportscotland's contribution to legacy. CSHs are based in local facilities including sport centres, community centres, club pavilions, the natural environment and schools. They aim to bring local people together and provide a home for local clubs and sport organisations. Each CSH will focus on the long-term needs of the particular local community in which it is based. Because of this it is not possible to predict the final capacity of the programme accurately, but this will be a concern of our detailed evaluation work. The first CSH was officially launched in August 2010. In addition, the First Minister announced a £10m Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund in March 2012 to improve community facilities for sport and physical activity. Community groups in Scotland will be able to build, upgrade and improve sports and physical activity facilities. The BIG lottery's Communities 2014 Programme also offers funding to grass roots sports and community organisations. By September 2012, 199 awards had been made across Scotland.

Further commitments to enhance the environment can be seen in the investment in world-class venues to help improve the environment for physical activity and sport - these will be available to local people, elite and non-elite athletes up to and beyond 2014. These will include new facilities such as the National Indoor Sporting Arena, the Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome, the National Entertainments Arena and the Hockey Centre, and refurbished centres including Tollcross Pool, Kelvingrove Lawn Bowls and Scotstoun Stadium. These facilities and others across the city of Glasgow will be open to all and will service, not only Glasgow, but the West of Scotland and beyond. There are other outdoor infrastructure improvements underway in Glasgow too, including improvements in the cycle track network and the Cunningar Loop. The Royal Commonwealth Pool in Edinburgh has been upgraded in advance of hosting the diving events of the Glasgow 2014 Games. Further, the Scottish Government just announced in their draft budget £6m over two years for further investment in cycling infrastructure.

2. Better co-ordination at national and local level

Participation in sport and physical activity also continues to receive significant support - £14.5m in 2010/11- through sportscotland's investment in Scottish governing bodies. One-fifth of Scots participate in sport as a member of one of Scotland's 13,000 sports clubs. The commitment in this document to monitoring progress in raising both headline levels of sport participation and physical activity and their drivers is also a reflection of this need. Physical Activity is now also a National Indicator in the National Performance Framework.

- An implementation plan is being developed for the Scottish Charter for Physical Activity supporting planning, delivering and governance of physical activity investments across all relevant Scottish Government policy areas.

- CSHs also represent a commitment to ensure services are tailored for local people in their own community using existing community resources, such as the local school estate, both in the evening and throughout the day as much as possible.

- Adopting a more creative and innovative approach to the investment in physical activity projects may build on the success of these to date. Projects include the Jog Scotland programme run through Scottish Athletics, which has over 430 jogging groups with almost 22,000 members, and Paths for All walking programme that attracted 11,000 new walkers across Scotland in 2011/12. Also sportscotland is developing an Active Girls programme taking forward a range of activities specifically tailored for teenage girls.

- The SG currently invests around £3 million on physical activity projects including those aimed at specific groups furthest away from meeting the recommended physical activity guidelines. This is over and above national programmes such as sportscotland's £13m investment in Active Schools which provided almost 5 million opportunities in 2011/12 for young people to get active. The physical activity budget has been maintained for 2012/2013, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015.

- Making the most of the health benefits of walking with the development of a National Walking Strategy which was announced in May 2012 by the Minister for Commonwealth Games and Sport. This is along with a new approach to health intervention through patient-centred high-quality integrated programmes that will support patients into a more active lifestyle with brief advice from healthcare professionals followed by local activity programmes in community sport hubs or leisure centres.

- Delivering the joint commitment with COSLA, supported with £5.8 million investment from sportsscotland and Education Scotland, that every pupil in Scotland will benefit from at least two hours per week of physical education in primary school and two periods in S1 to S4 by 2014 will be a tangible and enduring legacy for the 2014 Commonwealth Games. This adds to the already significant investment into providing opportunities for children to get involved in a wide range of sport and physical activities in and around the school day through programmes such as Active Schools.

- As part of the joint £5.8 million investment into PE Scottish Disability Sport will receive £125,000 over the next two years. Scottish Disability Sport will use this funding to offer over 1,000 PE teachers and classroom teachers throughout Scotland access to a training programme which will provide them with the knowledge, skills and experience to fully include disabled young people in PE and sports provision.

- In addition, the Minister for Commonwealth Games & Sport announced that the Young People's Sports Panel (see "Connected" Chapter) established and supported by sportscotland and Young Scot will be directly involved in developing a new Youth Sport Strategy for Scotland which will look at what more needs to be done to motivate greater participation in sport and physical activity among Scotland's young people in the lead up to the Games. This could include raising the profile of school sports, making PE in schools more enjoyable and better links with local sports clubs.

- Increases in the sustainable transport budget will help to develop the National Cycle Network infrastructure. This currently covers 2,000 miles in Scotland and was responsible for 40m Journeys in 2010 - this will be important to help connect communities and provide cycling opportunities. There a clear links to the Sustainability theme, with respect to enhanced opportunities for walking and cycling. This is one example where themes and indicators are cross-cutting, demonstrating that legacy as a whole is important to achieve specific intermediate outcomes.

- We are clear that physical activity is not just supported by organised sports and dedicated infrastructure, but can be experienced creatively. Accordingly the £1.5m National Lottery Investment in Get Scotland Dancing for 2012-14 should also help secure a physical activity legacy.

3. Communications

LMSMA also noted the need for a clear communications which educate people about the benefits of physical activity. Our Communications Strategy called Take Life On could help generate the "Festival effect" that is considered important in the evidence. These aim to encourage as many people as possible to take simple steps towards physical activity which they can build into their lives. Meanwhile the Games for Scotland 2012 Programme - launched on 5 March and managed by EventScotland - providing up to £10,000 to 26 LAs to put on an event which involves sporting or cultural activity inspired by the Glasgow 2014 Games, in particular trying one of 17 sports of the Games or dance participation that supports Get Scotland Dancing.

Outcome Indicators for 'Active'

Headline Indicators

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

Source

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase physical activity and participation in sport

A1: % of population participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels

√

√

GW

SHeS

A2: % of children participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels

√

√

GW

SHeS

A3 : % of adults with low levels of physical activity

√

√

GW

SHeS

A4: % of children with low levels of physical activity

√

√

GW

SHeS

A5: % of adult population participating in sport

√

√

GW

SHS

A6: % of children participating in sport

√

√

GW

SHeS

A7: Awareness of Physical Activity Recommendations

√

X

X

SHeS

A8: % of adults making one or more visits to the outdoors per week

√

X

X

SRS

A9: % of adults walking more than 30 minutes for recreation

√

√

GW

SHS

A10: Active travel to work

√

√

X

SHS

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the active infrastructure (people and places)

A11: GVA - sport and leisure

√

√

X

ABS

A12: Employment- sport and leisure

√

√

X

ABS

A13: Ultimate Sports Cities : ranking and score (Ranking)

X

√

X

SB

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve Scottish Sporting Success

A14: Sporting Success

TBD

TBD

TBD

√ Available x Not available GW - available through GoWell TBD - to be determined

SHeS- Scottish Health Survey; SRS- Scottish Recreation Survey; SHS- Scottish Household Survey , ABS - Annual Business Survey; SB - Sportsbusiness, †"Glasgow Greater Glasgow & Clyde (GGC) Area if the data is from the Scottish Health Survey, and the City of Glasgow local authority area if the data is from the Scottish Household Survey

‡ Note that different wordings of questions in the GoWell survey mean that the figures will not be directly comparable with the SHeS and SHS.

Tracking Indicators Since Baseline

In this section, we look at the latest available data for all the outcome indicators and examine trends from 2008 onward. This includes Scottish data and Glasgow-level data (where it available and robust). We also look briefly at what we know about the outcomes for different social groups. It is worth noting that the Scottish Health Survey data is disaggregated to Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board area, which is a different (wider) boundary to the Glasgow City data used elsewhere in this report.

It is important to note at this stage, as set out in chapter 2, that the indicators presented here are, in theory, amenable to change due to the Games, but they only form part of the picture. As our work progresses, primary research and evaluation will provide the 'bottom-up' evidence that will help assess the contribution of the Games. More of these data will be available for our next report in spring 2014.

For most of the active indicators (A1-10) we could, in theory, expect to see a change in the pre-Games, Games time and post-Games period. Important context is the London2012 Games and the potential effect this may have on these indicators. Indicators A5 to A10 measure some of the key components of physical activity: outdoor recreation, participation in sport and use of active travel modes (walking and cycling) to work. A7 is an indicator of how much the population is aware of how much it should be active: on the assumption that greater awareness of what is needed may motivate people to take steps to improve their lifestyle. Finally, indicators A11 to A13 represent some of the key infrastructure to support participation in physical activity - both in scale (turnover and Gross Value-Added) and people delivering it.

1) Increase physical activity and participation in sport

This intermediate outcome represents a legacy which extends to the entire population. The intention is to use the investment in new facilities and the Games as an event, to encourage Scots to be more physically active including in participation in sport. The indicators that follow represent both headline levels of physical activity and the components that go to make it up, recognising that different members of society will be starting from different levels of activity and opportunity. As we are reliant on self-reported data, the extended period which we use to track the effect of Legacy programmes will be helpful in ascertaining whether reported effects are sustained beyond the immediate aftermath of the Games. An improvement in the rate of change for indicators where a long-term desirable trend may already be in place would be an achievement, but so too would maintenance of existing rates of change as target populations become harder to reach.

A1: % of population participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels

Why is this indicator important? This headline indicator represents the proportion of the adult population who are meeting medical guidelines for level of exercise (these were, up until 2012, 30 mins of moderate or vigorous exercise at least 5 times a week). While increasing levels of physical activity from low to moderate levels and even beyond the recommendations are desirable, increasing the proportion of the population who meet the guidelines would be a significant achievement. In addition Let's Get Scotland More Active sees its primary purpose as getting inactive people to become more active.

What do the data tell us? The longer term trend suggests that there has been an increase in the proportion of the Scottish population meeting the physical activity recommendations. Between 1998 and 2008 the proportion of 16-74 year-old men meeting recommendations[43] increased from 40% to 46% and the figures for women increased from 29% to 35%. Between 2008 and 2011 there has been little change in the proportions of all adults (16+) meeting the recommendations. While there was a slight fall in 2009, this was not statistically significant and the figures rose again in 2010 to reach 39% and remained there in 2011. In Greater Glasgow & Clyde (GGC), the picture is broadly in line with the rest of Scotland, with a figure of 36% for 2011 - not significantly different from the Scottish figure of 39%. Men tend to be more active than women, with levels for men at 45% in both Scotland and GGC. For women the figures are 33% in Scotland and 28% in GGC. Looking at the breakdown for Scotland by key characteristics for 2011, some patterns emerge.

Source: Scottish Health Survey

There are gender differences. For men, compliance declines with age from 63% for 16-24 year olds to 11% for 75+. The largest gap between men and women is 22 percentage points for the 16-24 age group. The level of female participation stays broadly similar up to age 54, and then declines.

Area deprivation (according to SIMD) is significantly associated with the likelihood of meeting the physical activity recommendations. Women living in the most deprived two quintiles were least likely to have met the recommendations (29%) whilst adherence to the recommendations ranged from 35% to 36% among women in the three least deprived quintiles. There was a similar pattern for men, with those in the most deprived quintile being least likely to have complied with the recommendations (39%) whilst those in the two least deprived quintiles had a figure of 49%.

Table A.1: Proportion of adults meeting physical activity recommendations by age, sex and socio-demographic characteristics 2011

Male

Female

All Adults

Age

16-24

63

41

52

25-34

61

45

53

35-44

54

42

48

45-54

48

38

43

55-64

32

27

30

65-74

23

18

20

75+

11

6

8

SIMD quintile

5th (least deprived)

49

36

42

4th

49

35

42

3rd

47

35

41

2nd

42

29

35

1st (most deprived)

39

29

34

Income quintile

1st (highest)

50

38

44

2nd

49

36

43

3rd

49

34

41

4th

44

29

36

5th (lowest)

35

27

31

Source: Scottish Health Survey

Household income is also associated with physical activity levels with a clear linear relationship with those on higher incomes being more likely to meet recommendations. There is a difference of 15 percentage points between the top and bottom quintiles of income for men and a difference of 10 percentage points between top and bottom quintiles of income for women, and these differences are statistically significant. Health Board breakdowns of key Scottish Health Survey indicators, including physical activity, have now been published on the website[44] . On 30 October, breakdowns by ethnicity, religion, sexuality and disability will be published in a topic report on equality groups.

A2: % of children participating in moderate exercise at recommended levels (Age 2-15)

Why is this indicator important? This is the parallel headline indicator to A1 for children. Let's Get Scotland More Active aims to raise the participation of children in the minimum recommended levels of activity (1 hour per day) to 80%.

Source: Scottish Health Survey

What do the data tell us? The proportion of children meeting the recommendations has increased slightly (but not significantly) from 71% in 2008 to 73% in 2011. This includes school-based physical activity. In GGC this figure was 71% in 2010/2011 combined.

Excluding school-based activity gives a longer time series for Scotland, extending back to 1998 when 65% were meeting the recommended levels with non-school exercise. This hasn't changed significantly since then (with the exception of a peak of 69% in 2003). The level in 2011 was 65%, and was 63% in GGC during years 2010-2011 combined. These figures suggest that school-based activity pushes a reasonable amount over the margin into recommended levels of activity (though it will add extra activity to many other children already meeting the guidelines).

An age-range of 2-15 is, of course, a very diverse group, so it is worth exploring how well the recommendations are achieved during different ages in childhood. Focussing on the measure including school-based activity, ages 5-10 had peak levels in 2011 of 80%-81%, and ages 13-15 were the lowest with 59%. The gender gap opens up substantially at 13-15 years old, with 69% of 13-15 year-old males active at recommended levels compared to 48% of 13-15 year-old females. The fall in female activity levels between the ages of 11-12 and 13-15 is the main contributor of the fall in overall participation from its peak at age 8-10 although there is a significant reduction in male activity as well (from 82% at 8-10 to 69% at 13-15). In GGC there is a similar age pattern, although the peak in activity is more pronounced in the 8-10 age group (84%) and the drop off in 13-15 year olds is less severe (65% of 13-15 year olds in GGC met recommendations). With respect to area deprivation there was a significant association between SIMD and activity among boys, but not girls. However, the pattern was not linear: 81% of boys in the least deprived quintile, and 77% in the second most deprived quintile, met the recommendations, while for boys in the remaining three groups, the figure ranged from 72% - 74%. Looking at activity for both adults and children, it appears that the gender divide which is already present at age 16 opens up in the teenage years.

A3 : % of adults with low levels of physical activity

Why is this indicator important? Looking at levels of "low" physical activity (less than 30 minutes moderate or vigorous activity a week), we may get some insights into how far we have to go in order to get people meeting the recommendations.

What do the data tell us? Overall, 32% of adults in Scotland had low levels of physical activity in Scotland in 2011, with the same proportion seen in GGC.

Source: Scottish Health Survey

At both Scotland and GGC levels there is, as might be expected, a pattern with age. Within Scotland there is also a significant difference in the proportion of men with low activity levels in the most (38%) and least-deprived (25%) quintile. The figures for women are 42% and 30% respectively. The differences are also significant for income with the top quintile showing 22% with "low" activity compared to 41% for the bottom quintile for men, and 27% and 45% for women.

The fact that these differences are substantial and significant suggests that there may be less people in deprived areas and lower income groups on the "margin" who can be relatively easily moved into the group achieving physical activity recommendations, so that efforts should be given to getting very inactive groups to start exercising in a small way.

A4: % of children with low levels of physical activity

Why is this indicator important? This indicator is the parallel indicator to A3 for children. Again, looking at levels of "low" physical activity (less than 30 mins a day), we may get some insights into how far we have to go in order to get people meeting the recommendations.

What do the data tell us? The trend since 2008 has decreased slightly (but not significantly) and the figure for 2011 stands at 10%. Again there is a gender pattern, with 8% of boys and 12% of girls with low levels of activity in 2011. Once, again it is clear that the biggest change takes place with teenage girls, in 2010/11 we see the proportion with low activity jumps from 8% for 8-12 year-olds to 22% for 13-15 year-olds. The gender difference is also evident in GGC, but the data does not allow us to separate by age due to small sample sizes.

Source: Scottish Health Survey

A5: % of adult population participating in sport (excluding walking) in the last four weeks

Why is the indicator important? Sport is a key medium for physical activity. It provides an environment, structure and infrastructure within which people can be active. In addition, participation in sport can have a host of other impacts with respect to nurturing communities and longer-term success at elite levels.

What do the data tell us? Scottish Household Survey data suggest that participation in sport has remained fairly stable in the four years to 2010 and increased slightly in 2011 when 54% of adults participated in sport at least once in the previous four weeks. Of sports, swimming is the most common, with 18% participation followed by Keep fit/aerobics (14%) and multigym/weight training (12%). Football is the most common of the conventional "team" sports at 8%. In the City of Glasgow sport participation has followed a similar pattern to the Scottish figures and was 50% in 2011.

Source: Scottish Household Survey

Table 2 suggests similar patterns for sport participation to that for physical activity in general. There is a significant difference between genders, with 60% of men and 48% of women participating (although not as large as that for physical activity). There are significant differences for age groups (declining as respondents get older) and between the top and bottom of the deprivation scale.

Table A.2: Participation in Sport in the last four weeks (%) 2011

Any Sport (excluding walking)

All

54

Gender

Male

60

Female

48

Age

16-24

75

25-34

69

35-44

64

45-54

53

55-64

41

65-74

35

75+

21

SIMD quintile

1st (most deprived)

44

2nd

49

3rd

52

4th

58

5th (least deprived)

64

Source: Scottish Household Survey

Frequency of participation is important to understand when considering sport's contribution to physical activity targets. Around 28% participated for 21 or more days in the previous 4 weeks, they are likely to be a substantial proportion of those who meet the physical activity targets (although we do not know how intense or prolonged their participation is). At the other end of the scale, around 24% only participated on 1-4 days in the previous four weeks, suggesting that sport may have a greater role to help individuals meet the activity recommendations (or that an alternative to sport must be found, e.g. if time is the most significant barrier to participation). Further work is underway in the Scottish Government to examine what the Scottish Health and Household Surveys tell us about the relationship between sport participation and physical activity.

A6: % of children participating in sport in the previous week

Why is the indicator important? This indicator parallels A5 for adults. However recruitment of young people into sporting participation may also have greater impacts at professional levels, and help build in a habit of health activity for later life.

What do the data tell us? Scottish Health Survey data suggest the proportion of children participating in sport in the previous week has been broadly stable since 1998 and was 69% in 2011. In GGC this figure was 73% for 2010/2011.

Source: Scottish Health Survey

A similar pattern to physical activity exists when considering participation by age. Broadly, participation rises during childhood, peaking at age 11-12 and then drops off thereafter, particularly sharply at the age of 13-15. This is the case for both males and females, but particularly so for girls, where there is a drop from 70% to 53% between the age bands 11-12 and 13-15. For boys the figures were 85% and 74% respectively. It is not possible to examine age and gender patterns for GGC due to small numbers. In contrast with physical activity, there is a significant association between sport participation and area deprivation for both boys and girls. The most deprived fifth of the population has participation levels of 58%, and the least deprived at 76%.

A7: Awareness of Physical Activity Recommendations (percentage of the population)

Why is the indicator important? While many are active without specific motivations to maintain or increase their health, for many people, an awareness of what they need to do to stay healthy may be a building block in helping them to be intentional about activity into their daily lives.

What do the data tell us? The numbers who are aware of the physical activity recommendations have increased slightly from 22% in 2008 and in 2010 stood at 26%. At the same time, the numbers underestimating the recommendations fell from 51% to 46%. The exact causality between awareness and fulfilling the recommendations is not clear. However the data suggest that those who were also exhibiting low levels of physical activity, were also less likely to correctly identify correctly the recommendations than those with higher levels of physical activity. Just 17% of the less active group correctly identified the recommendation in 2008/2009. In part this can be explained by the higher numbers of inactive older people, who are less aware of the recommendations.

Source: Scottish Health Survey KAM module

The differences between social groups need care in interpretation. While there appears to be little difference between men and women, and between deprivation quintiles with respect to underestimating the recommendations, there is more spread with respect to actually identifying the recommendations correctly.

A8 Percentage of adults making one or more visits to the outdoors per week

Why is this indicator important? While people can visit the outdoors without physical activity being involved, for many the enjoyment of greenspace and Scotland's natural heritage will provide a pleasant environment in which to be active. There is some evidence that mental health is also more likely to be enhanced by activity outdoors rather than at home or in the gym45, 46 .

What do the data tell us? Figures from the Scottish Recreation Survey suggest that the vast majority of the population (83%) are involved in some sort of outdoor recreation, however just under half (46%) are doing this weekly. While not all of this may be physical activity, it does suggest the outdoors can play a key part in providing a setting for exercise, and not necessarily in organised sports.

Source: Scottish Recreation Survey

There are limited breakdowns for the figures, but visits decrease with age (91% of under-35s and 71% of over-54s visit at least once a year) and occupational group (92% of the AB "managerial and professional" occupations and 73% of the DE "unskilled workers and unemployed").

A9 % of adults who have walked more than 30 minutes for recreation in the past four weeks

Why is this indicator important? Walking is the easiest form of physical activity to access. In this case, we measure intentional walking for recreation (rather than commuting which is contained in the Active Travel indicator below). This may be an entry-point to more sustained or vigorous physical activity, or it may simply be the appropriate way activity is integrated into a busy life.

What do the data tell us? There has been no significant change since 2008 and the figures stand at 57% for Scotland and 51% for Glasgow in 2011. A significant amount of these are not doing any other sport (recreational walking would increase the sport participation figure from 54% to 75%, so it is a key building block in participation in physical activity). There isn't a significant difference by gender (Male 56%, Female 58%) but by age there is a peak of 64% at ages 35-44, falling to 32% for those aged 75 and over.

Source: Scottish Household Survey

However, while there might not be an explicit financial barrier to participation, there is a deprivation gradient with 47% of those in the most-deprived quintile walking recreationally, compared to 63% in the least-deprived quintile. It is likely that that the causes that drive this deprivation gradient are complex and deep-rooted.

A10: Active travel to work

Why is this indicator important With Let's Get Scotland More Active suggesting that lack of time is an issue about why people do not undertake exercise, the potential for devoting existing commuting time to an active mode of travel to work, particularly if the journey is relatively short, is an attractive prospect.

What do the data tell us? Travel to work using either walking to cycling has been broadly stable since the Scottish Household Survey series began in 2000, and now stands at 15%. The figure for Glasgow City is 16%.

Source: Scottish Household Survey

Cycling is a relatively small part of the national figure at just 2%. The results are strongly socially patterned, with 18% of those with a household income under £10,000 walking to work, but 7% of those with an income in excess of £40,000. In addition women (16%) are more likely to walk than men (10%). 16-29 year olds are most likely to walk (19%) compared to 40-49 year olds (11%).

The Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary for 2009/10 suggests that travel by private car or taxi (44%) has a much greater share of journeys between 2 and 3 km than walking and cycling combined (17%), so there is potential for growth.

A11: Gross Value Added - sport and leisure £m

Please see flourishing annex (F1) for the information on the indicator and data from 2008 to 2011.

A12: Employment - sport and leisure

Please see flourishing annex (F3) for the information on the indicator and data from 2008 to 2011.

A13: Ultimate Sport Cities (ranking and score)

Why is this indicator important? The international rating of the City of Glasgow as a host city for sporting events will be important for Scotland's reputation. Certain aspects of the ranking can be extracted for sport and facilities impacts and these will be an external illustration of progress in those areas. We wish to make absolute improvements as well as improvements relative to other host cities, hence the inclusion of the score. The SportBusiness Ultimate Sports Cities Awards are internationally recognised rankings of the world's top sports hosts. These have been held every second year since 2006.

What do the data tell us? Glasgow moved up two places to number 9 in the world in 2012 with a score of 344. Glasgow also retained its position as the number in relation to sports marketing and branding. In 2010, Glasgow was ranked number 11 with a score of 291, and was also named number 1 for sports marketing and branding (data courtesy of SportBusiness www.sportbusiness.com/).

A14: Scottish Sporting Success

Why is this indicator important? The impact of elite sporting success, while it is not our intention to downplay wider population participation in sport or physical activity at all levels, represents an outcome that all Scots can enjoy and aspirations for Scotland's sports people can be encouraged and fulfilled. It also acts as an indicator internationally to illustrate the impact of sporting strategies on performance.

What do the data tell us? Discussions are underway about how best to measure sporting success. These data will become available in 2014.

Conclusions

Key indicators for physical activity, such as active travel, visits to the outdoors, sport participation and sport-related volunteering have been broadly stable since 2008. The trends for physical activity have been broadly positive since 1998, although they have been fairly stable since 2008.

There are social patterns, with lower participation for women and older age groups. It is clear that the gender gap opens up when children enter the teenage years, when there is a significant fall in participation, which is most marked for young girls. This is reflected in the supporting indicators for very low levels of activity (which are higher for teenage girls) and sport participation.

There is significant variation in participation in physical activity by deprivation, with those in the most deprived areas significantly less likely to meet the recommendations than those in the least deprived areas. For income there is a linear and significant relationship between rising income and participation in physical activity. Furthermore, underlying data for lower-level physical activity and sport participation suggest that there is even greater social patterning.

Annex 3: Connected

Introduction

The Glasgow 2014 Games offer the potential to inspire cultural engagement, creativity and learning. Cultural programmes are often a core part of Games activity. Indeed, the hosting of a cultural programme during the Games is an article (Article 23) of the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF). The Connected theme aims to capitalise on that by using the Glasgow 2014 Games to mobilise and strengthen learning and culture at home and internationally. The Scottish Government and the Games Legacy Plans highlight the potential for the Commonwealth Games 2014 to encourage cultural engagement, creativity and learning. The Legacy Plan aims to:

- Improve the perception of Scotland as a creative nation, producing world class cultural experiences;

- Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences; and

- Enhance young people's learning and everyone's understanding and celebration of our and other countries' cultures.

Cultural engagement is important as it impacts positively on general wellbeing and helps to reinforce resilience in difficult times.[47] It is also known to bring benefits in learning and education. Our culture is key to our sense of identity as individuals, as communities and as a nation. Maintaining the quality and diversity of our cultural offerings in conjunction with enabling a strong level of engagement with culture helps to promote Scotland on an international stage as a modern dynamic nation.

Using the Glasgow 2014 Games as a platform, it is hoped that individuals and communities will be encouraged to get involved in cultural activities, to try something new and to develop and enhance friendships both in Scotland and abroad. It is hoped that increased cultural activity across Scotland stimulated by the Games will not only benefit participants and spectators, but also practitioners and the creative industries generally.

The Commonwealth Games also provides unique learning opportunities that can potentially raise the ambition, aspirations and achievement of learners. This legacy for learning supports Curriculum for Excellence [48] and aims to promote learning linked to the Games across the curriculum in a number of ways.

Previous Research

There is currently limited evidence linking major sporting events and cultural participation and engagement. Nonetheless, previous Commonwealth Games have seen almost an equal number of people participate in the cultural events as the sporting events.[49] As noted in Chapter 1, one of the likely processes by which a major event can lead to increased participation is the "festival effect", which involves celebration and generation of a community spirit which translates into a desire to participate in some way.[50] There is some evidence of increases in enthusiasm and perceptions of strengthened community before and immediately after a major sporting event[51] , supporting the notion of a "festival effect". Given the limited evidence, the Glasgow 2014 Games provide a clear opportunity to contribute to the knowledgebase of the link between major sporting events and cultural engagement.

Strategies and Programmes

With a range of cultural programmes and initiatives planned, the Glasgow 2014 Games provide an opportunity to attract, develop and retain talent as well as support and celebrate the creative industries. With a variety of new and different cultural activities which will be on offer, it is hoped that the number of people in Scotland participating in such activities will also increase.

Given the scale of the event and the number of organisations involved, the Glasgow 2014 Games may also contribute to partnership building and sharing of skills, expertise and knowledge within the cultural sector.

The Glasgow 2014 Games also provides the opportunity to enhance the reputation of Scotland as a modern, vibrant and culturally rich nation and increase tourism as a result. While there is not a single project or programme aiming to do this, it is hoped that hosting the event per se will enhance reputation.

From a learning perspective, games legacy is already being used as a context for promoting learning across the curriculum in a number of ways. For example, the values of the Games have been used by schools to encourage learning about other countries, the development of children and young people as global citizens, positive behaviour, relationships and attitudes and build a culture of excellence, ambition and achievement. Case studies on the Games on learning have already been collected with a database already been created[52] . Further, on 20th September 2012, Education Scotland launched plans for 'Game On Scotland', the schools programme for Glasgow 2014 which will create learning opportunities around Glasgow 2014 and other important events taking place in Scotland in the coming years.

There is a wealth of activity underway on the 'connected' theme which we have briefly summarised below, spanning both culture and education. The Scottish Government and partners are also at a crucial phase of developing activity across this theme and it is expected that as the Games move ever closer, the opportunities to participate in new activities developed under this theme will increase.

Culture

A range of cultural activities and programmes have already taken place as part of the London 2012 Festival and Cultural Olympiad and will continue up to and beyond the Glasgow 2014 Games. Programmes are being designed to motivate and inspire people across Scotland and our visitors to celebrate and enjoy Scotland's culture. Across partners, new ways are being developed for people to get involved in cultural and creative activities, be it as a participant, practitioner or spectator. Key programmes include:

- 2012 Festival and Cultural Olympiad and 2014 Cultural Programme - Scotland's London 2012 cultural programme set the scene for the cultural potential around Glasgow's 2014 Games. Throughout 2012 Scotland has hosted 50 projects and over 250 events. Audience, participation & engagement figures were higher than expected and the cultural programme has spanned every Scottish local authority, reached out across the UK and created connections across the Olympic nations. 2012 is also the year of Creative Scotland, marking the beginning of a programme that started with London 2012 and will end celebrating Glasgow 2014 and Homecoming. It aims to spotlight, celebrate and promote Scotland's cultural and creative strengths on a world stage, and to position Scotland as one of the world's most creative nations to audiences at home and across the world. The Year of Creative Scotland is a year-long programme of activity to celebrate Scotland's world-class events, festivals, artistic and cultural heritage. Creative Scotland will invest £8 million from National Lottery funds in supporting the 2014 Cultural programme.

- Get Scotland Dancing - launched on 5 October 2010, work is ongoing to develop, support and promote activity that will encourage more people to get involved in dance and get active. Creative Scotland allocated £1.5 million of National Lottery funds to support Get Scotland Dancing in the period 2012-2014.

- The 2010 Games for Scotland programme saw 26,000 participants with 29 events that included all 32 Scottish Local Authorities. The 2011 Games for Scotland saw 19 events take place across Scotland giving participants the opportunity to try their hands at a range of Commonwealth Games themed sports and cultural activities. Over £600,000 will support the programme of events in 2012 and 2013.

- Queen's Baton Relay (QBR) - Following the success of the Olympic Torch Relay in Scotland this summer, the Queen's Baton Relay is intended to build excitement across Scotland's communities in the lead up to the Commonwealth Games. Unlike the Olympic Torch, the Queen's Baton will travel around all 71 nations and territories in the Commonwealth, providing an opportunity to showcase Scotland and the Commonwealth Games. The leg of the relay in Scotland will engage with communities in every local authority area and will provide an opportunity for all of Scotland to play its part in celebrating the Games.

Learning

Learning programmes and activity are in the process of being designed with a view to enrich people's, particularly young people's, intercultural understanding and interdisciplinary learning as part of the lead up and activity around the Games. This will build on the successful programme of work around the 2012 Olympics Get Set to which 2,306 Scottish schools registered.

The proposed delivery model, which has been agreed by the Games Legacy for Learning Group, sees these partners[53] working together to develop and implement the education programme including a commitment to joint working, regular communication and engagement.

The current plan is that Education Scotland, working with partners, will develop an online landing page illustrating the overarching aims and outcomes of the education programme. The page will also allow schools to sign up to the programme and get access to information, ideas and Games related opportunities as the programme and website develops. The website is expected to fully developed by early March 2013, in time for Commonwealth Day (11 March).

The exact scope and nature of some programmes are still being developed and are likely to evolve as we get closer to the Glasgow 2014 Games. Nonetheless, some key programmes can already be identified:

- Lead 2014 - a partnership between sportscotland, Youth Sport Trust and Glasgow 2014, - will see pupils gather at conferences hosted by the Lead 2014 partner university in their area. The pupils will be mentored by university student volunteers in how to plan, organise and manage a Commonwealth Games themed sports festival. The pupils then take their new skills and knowledge back to their communities to organise a sports festival for their local primary schools. In 2010/11 the programme covered 6 universities and 98 secondary schools and in 2011/12 this rose to 7 universities and 134 secondary schools.

- International links (including Support a second Team) - through programmes such as International Inspirations and Connecting Classroom, a collaboration with the British Councils Scotland, links between Scottish schools and schools from other countries will continue to be established to help enrich the learning experience of Scotland's young people. This includes all Glasgow schools being linked with Commonwealth countries. In addition, the 'Support a 2nd team' programme is still under development. It will look to link Local Authorities, through their sporting communities with potential links with schools/pupils, with Commonwealth Games Associations of the 71 nations and territories competing in the Glasgow 2014 Games.

- Youth Legacy Ambassadors - There are 113 youth legacy ambassadors across 31 Local Authorities (LAs) whose role is to champion the legacy of the Glasgow 2014 Games (and of London 2012) to other young people and their local community and help promote the benefits major sporting events can bring and leave behind for Scotland's young people. Young Scot are working with the remaining LA to recruit in their area. The work of the YLAs is complemented by over 300 young ambassadors recruited across LAs with the help of Youth Sport Trust and sportscotland to support London 2012's ambitions to reach local communities involve young people and increase participation in sport.

- Young Ambassadors - The Youth Sport Trust (YST), working with sportscotland and local authorities plan to grow the numbers of Ambassadors from 64 (2 per local authority) to 728 (2 per secondary school) by 2014, to support London 2012's ambitions to involve young people and increase participation in sport. They work with Young Scot's Youth Legacy Ambassadors to give young people across Scotland an opportunity to get involved and have their say about what they want to happen to build a legacy for and by young people. Work is underway to increase the links between YST Young Ambassadors and the Young Scot Youth Legacy Ambassadors to allow them to support our wider legacy ambitions in Scotland 2012 saw the Youth Sport Trust recruiting over 300 young ambassadors across Scotland, working towards their target of 2 per secondary school by 2014.

- Young People's Sports Panel - sportscotland are working in partnership with Young Scot to lead on the development of the first ever Young people's sport panel. The sport panel presents a national platform to represent the voice of young people across Scotland; young people who are passionate about sport and want to make a difference. The young people's sport panel's 16 members will work together and autonomously to shape and influence the future of sport in Scotland and be involved in raising the profile of sport.

- Youth Employment Fund - On 10 March 2012, the First Minister announced a £5 million youth unemployment initiative giving up to 2,500 young people the opportunity to gain employment opportunities in the major events Scotland will host in the years to come. See flourishing annex for more detail.

- Game on Scotland - building on the London 2012 Get Set programme, to which 2,306 Scottish schools registered for, the 2014 Legacy for Learning Programme 'Game on Scotland' aims to increase learning about the Commonwealth and leave a lasting legacy of greater intercultural understanding, links and exchanges, as well as inspiring young people to get involved in the Games. The programme was launched on 20th September 2012.

Connected - Headline Indicators

Headline Indicators

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

Source

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the perception of Scotland as a creative nation, producing world class cultural experiences

C1: Perception of Scotland internationally - culture (includes sporting excellence)

√

x

x

NBI

C2: Message trending in the social media about the Games (volume and proportion of positive, negative and neutral messages)

√

√

x

TBD

C3: Memory of the event - proportion of the population who retain a positive memory of the Games

√

√

x

Omni

C4: Visits by overseas and UK Tourists (trips and expenditure)

√

√

x

IPS/GBTS

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences

C5: Level of public engagement in Scotland with the Games

√

√

√

SHS, GHS, Omni , GW

C6: Cultural engagement in Scotland among adults and young people (attendance and participation)

√

√

x

SHS/ Omni

C7: GVA - creative industries

√

√

x

ABS

C8: Employment - creative industries

√

√

x

BRES

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Enhance young people's learning and everyone's understanding and celebration of our and other countries' cultures

C9: National and civic pride following the commonwealth games among adults and young people

√

√

√

Omni

C10: Understanding and celebration of Scottish and other cultures (including the commonwealth) among adults and young people

√

√

x

Omni, GHS

C11: Understanding of global citizenship among adults and young people

√

√

x

Omni, GHS

√ available, x not available / appropriate GW - being measured in GoWell study, Omni - Omnibus Survey, ABS - Annual Business Survey, BRES - Business Register Employment Survey, LGF - Local Government Finance Statutory Return, SHS- Scottish Household Survey; IPS = International Passenger Survey; GBTS/UKTS=Great Britain Tourist Survey, GHS - Glasgow Household Survey, NBI - Anholt GfK-Roper Nations Brand Index, TBD - To be decided, √ Available X Not available

Tracking Indicators Since Baseline

In this section we look at the latest available data for all the 'connected' indicators and examine recent trends since 2008 where this is possible. We also briefly compare with UK wide data, where appropriate and available. More insight on trends and patters will be possible as further data become available.

It is important to note at this stage, as set out in chapter 2, that the indicators presented here are, in theory, amenable to change due to the Games, but they only form part of the picture, and we would not expect a change in many of these indicators at this juncture. As our work progresses, primary research and evaluation will provide the 'bottom-up' evidence that will help assess the contribution of the Games. More of these data will be available for our next report in spring 2014.

1) Improve the perception of Scotland as a creative nation, producing world class cultural experiences

We have chosen four indicators which will be used to monitor whether the perception of Scotland as a creative nation improves. These indicators look at perceptions of Scotland internationally, perceptions of the Commonwealth Games both internationally and nationally, and Scotland as a tourist destination.

C1: Perception of Scotland internationally - culture (includes sporting excellence)

Why is this indicator important? This indicator is important as it represents Scotland's cultural reputation abroad. It uses the cultural dimension of the Nations Brand Index (NBI). The NBI has been chosen as an indicator as it is how Scottish Government tracks and monitors Scotland's reputation at a high-level as part of Scotland's National Performance Framework. The Culture dimension of the NBI tests three ideas of a nation's cultural reputation: its cultural history and heritage; its contemporary culture, e.g. popular culture and new creative ideas; and its sporting prowess. The Glasgow 2014 Games provide an opportunity to raise the profile of Scotland internationally, including its cultural profile and specifically its reputation in sporting excellence which will be tracked using this indicator. It may also raise cultural awareness of Scotland in specific countries such as India which are within the NBI panel of countries and this could potentially see a rise in Scotland's culture scores or rank[54] . The likely timing of this change will be post event. As noted in earlier chapters, NBI data are based on yearly interviews with approximately 20,000 adults aged 18 above in 20 core panel nations.

How the world sees Scotland, Anholt GfK-Roper Nation Brands Index©, cuture score 2008 to 2010

Source: Anholt GfK-Roper Nation Brands Index©

What do the data tell us? Scotland's rank for Culture has not changed between 2008 and 2010. However, although Scotland has been consistently ranked 18th by the panel of 50 nations its score for culture has dropped marginally since 2008 from 58.9 in 2008 to 57.41 in 2010[55] . Alongside its smaller nation comparators, Scotland does very well in the culture dimension and is the only one to feature in the top 20.

Between 2008 and 2010, countries like UK, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Sweden and the USA were the most likely to have a stronger awareness of Scotland's culture. In 2010 the most commonly selected words for culture that panellists selected from a list of 10 were: "museums" (28%), "music" (24%) and "sports" (17%). The different elements of the culture dimension show an interesting picture. While Scotland received one of its highest scores in 2010 for cultural heritage (11th), it did not perform as well as other nations on the index for sporting excellence (26th). Most of the nations that perform well for sporting excellence on the index regularly appear in global sporting tournaments and compete as an Olympic Games team.

C2: Messages trending in the social media about the Games (volume and proportion of positive, negative and neutral messages)

Why is this indicator important? London2012 was the first Olympics in which social media played a huge part in both the cultural experience of those following the event and monitoring the mood of the nation (positive, negative or neutral) in terms of the Olympics. Numerous statistics are now becoming available around usage of various media for London 2012 and many companies who used social media as a marketing tool are starting to use this data to measure its success. As part of the lead up to and follow up from Glasgow 2014 it will be important to use social media statistics to assess legacy e.g. to see how usage from 2012 onwards is split across the various media, what this usage is in terms of being positive, negative or neutral messages (known as sentiment analysis) and whether conversations and engagement were up (as well as broadcasting of messages). This will help to assess the cultural mood in the lead up to Glasgow 2014 and in the post event period. It is hoped that the Games generates a positive trend in messages which will peak around the event and in the post event period.

What do the data tell us? Work is currently underway to commission a study to track Commonwealth Games related sentiment on the internet. This work will enable reporting of this indicator from 2013 onwards.

C3: Memory of the event

Why is this indicator important? One of the largest effects of any mega event is on the memory of the population both in the host country and abroad. People are aware of, watch, attend or participate in an event and the memory of this can have a range of effects on them. These effects can be lasting and can in some cases be life changing to the individual or in other cases "re-brand" a city or country[56] .

What do the data tell us? We will commission questions in adult (within and outwith Scotland) and School "omnibus" surveys (within Scotland) which will track this indicator after the Commonwealth Games has taken place. Questions will be developed asking people whether they remember to Commonwealth Games, what they remember and if they do what effect it has had on them personally. This indicator will be reported on from 2014 onwards, although question on the possible effect of the Games will be included in adult and school omnibus surveys in advance of the event taking place.

C4: Visits by overseas and UK Tourists (trips and expenditure)

Please see flourishing annex (F12) for the information on the indicator and data from 2008 to 2011.

2) Increase engagement through new artistic, cultural and creative experiences

This section looks at cultural engagement with the Games and with cultural activities more generally. It also looks at economic indicators around cultural and creative experiences.

C5: Level of public engagement in Scotland with the Glasgow 2014 Games

Why is this indicator important? Public engagement in Glasgow 2014 is the driving factor in any "festival effect" of the event. It is therefore important to assess the public engagement in the Games at Scotland, Glasgow and East End of Glasgow level, and to compare this with the level of interest in England and Wales. This indicator uses data from a question run on a regular basis[57] in a Scottish and England and Wales Omnibus survey in the lead up to the Games. The question will ask a representative sample[58] of the Scottish, English and Welsh population what best describes their level of interest in the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow 2014. In addition the Go Well study will ask a similar question of the East End population. Other sources of data will be added when they become available e.g. questions on engagement in Commonwealth Games may be added to the Scottish Household survey in 2013. This indicator will track the percentage of respondents who intend to engage with the event by attending an event, attending Games related cultural events or watching the event on television. It is hoped that this will show higher levels of engagement which will peak around event time.

What do the data tell us? In 2011 the level of engagement with the 2014 Games was higher in Glasgow than Scotland as a whole and England/ Wales with more people planning to buy tickets or attend cultural events and fewer people just intending to watch on television. It would be hoped that the number of people wanting to buy tickets and attend events (particularly across Scotland) will increase closer to the event. This may mean the number watching on the television falls, however this figure might also rise as more people said 'I have no interest in the Commonwealth Games' decide to watch the event on television.

Table C1: Level of interest in the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow 2014

England & Wales 2011

Scotland 2011

Glasgow City 2011

Buy tickets to attend^1 (Net)

3%

14%

27%

I won't buy tickets for the Games but may attend specific related cultural events

1%

4%

5%

I may not go to any of the events for which you need to buy tickets but I intend visiting Glasgow^2 during the event

1%

4%

4%

I will not go to the Commonwealth Games but intend watching them on television

44%

46%

39%

I have no interest at all in the Commonwealth Games

50%

31%

22%

Don't know

2%

2%

2%

1 Includes I am definitely going to buy a ticket to attend an event \ events at the Games and I am probably going to buy a ticket to attend an event \ events at the Games.
2 Please note that residents in Glasgow City interpret visiting Glasgow as visiting different parts of the city than those they live in. Source: TNS 2011

C6: Cultural engagement in Scotland (attendance and participation)

Why is this indicator important?

Cultural engagement impacts positively on our general wellbeing and helps to reinforce our resilience in difficult times. Cultural participation is known to bring benefits in learning and education; there is a significant association with good health and satisfaction with life. Our culture is key to our sense of identity as individuals, as communities and as a nation. Maintaining the quality and diversity of our cultural offerings in conjunction with enabling a strong level of engagement with culture helps to promote Scotland on an international stage as a modern dynamic nation. These factors also encourage visitors to come to Scotland, creating and maintaining jobs in cultural tourism; and support the conditions for Scotland's creative economy by encouraging creative industries to be leading edge in their field, particularly as part of maintaining and growing city economies. This indicator is reported by age group.

In adults

This indicator shows the percentage of adults who have either participated in a cultural activity or who have attended or visited a cultural event or place in the last 12 months. It forms the basis of National Indicator 41: "Increase Cultural Engagement". The Scottish Household Survey asks a randomly selected adult in the household whether they have participated in a cultural activity in the last 12 months, this is the only source of data which is available on attendance and participation at a Scotland level and can be reported at local authority level as well. It also asks whether adults have attended a cultural event or visited a place of culture in the last 12 months[59] . The "Increase cultural engagement" indicator is measured by identifying all adults who have said that they have either participated in a cultural activity or who attended or visited at least one cultural event or place in the last 12 months. As part of this it is also possible to track attendance by cultural event or place and participation by cultural activity.

It is hoped that the Commonwealth Games will provide increased exposure to cultural events and more opportunities to participate through its cultural programme, which it is hoped will increase and encourage cultural engagement both nationally and in Glasgow. It is hoped this indicator will show increased cultural engagement year on year in the lead up to and following the event. This is more likely to be in the figures for participation and attendance excluding cinema and reading, rather than the overall figure for participation and attendance. It is hoped that increases may be shown in attendance and participation for particular art forms and activities in the lead up to and after the 2014 Games.

In Young People

This indicator shows the percentage of young people in Scotland who have either participated in a cultural activity or who have attended or visited a cultural event or place in the last 12 months. This is being measured through the Schools Omnibus Survey. It is hoped that the Commonwealth Games will provide increased exposure to cultural events and more opportunities to participate through its cultural programme, which it is hoped will increase and encourage cultural engagement both nationally and in Glasgow. It is hoped this indicator will show increased cultural engagement year on year in the lead up to and following the event.

What does the data tell us?

For adults, at a Scotland level the percentage who have either participated in a cultural activity or who have attended or visited a cultural event or place in the last 12 months has remained fairly stable since the data was first collected in 2007 but has shown an increase in 2011. Between 2010 and 2011 the percentage of adults who engaged in culture has increased in Scotland from 85% in 2010 to 87% in 2011. The percentage for Glasgow is broadly in line with the national figure. This percentage is made up of both attendance and participation, as can be seen in the figure below the figures for attendance and participation have also increased slightly between 2010 and 2011.

C2: Cultural engagement by adults in the last 12 months. Glasgow and Scotland, 2007-2011

Source: Scottish Household Survey

Around three quarters (76%) of adults attended a cultural event or place of culture in 2011. This is an increase from levels in 2009 and 2010 (74%) but is the same as recorded in 2007. Viewing a film at the cinema has been consistently the most popular form of cultural attendance and this has increased from 51% in 2010 to 54% in 2011.

At a national level the percentage of adults who attended a cultural event or place of culture other than the cinema in 2011 has also shown an increase from 2009 and 2010 levels (66% in 2011 compared with 64% in 2009 and 2010) but was lower than the 2007 figure (67%). Attendance at other live music events has seen the largest percentage point increase (from 27% recorded in each of the years between 2007 and 2010 to 31% in 2011). Visits to museums have shown a similar pattern (from 26% in each of the years between 2007 and 2010 to 28% in 2011). Attendance at places of historical or archaeological interest has increased to 21% in 2011 from 18% in 2010. This followed three years in which attendance was at 20%.

C3: Attendance at cultural events and visiting places of culture in the last 12 months. Scotland, 2007-2011

Source: Scottish Household Survey

The percentage of adults in Scotland who did not attend a cultural event or place of culture in the last 12 months varied from 24% and 26% between 2007 and 2011.

For Glasgow, the percentage of adults who attended a cultural event or place of culture in the previous 12 months has remained between 73% and 76% between 2007 and 2011, which is in line with the Scotland average. As with the Scotland as a whole, viewing a film at the cinema has been consistently the most popular form of cultural attendance by adults in Glasgow. The percentage of adults who attended a cultural place or event other than the cinema has varied between 63% and 67% between 2007 and 2011.

Museums are the next most popular cultural place or event, with 41% of adults in Glasgow reporting that they attended in the last 12 months. This is much higher than the Scotland level figure and is an increase from 34% of adults in 2007. The percentage of adults who visited a gallery in Glasgow was also consistently higher than the Scotland figure from 2007 to 2011. Attendance by adults in Glasgow at other cultural places or events was either in line with or slightly above the Scotland average, although the percentage of adults in Glasgow who attended a place of historical or archaeological interest was below the national average. These figures suggest that those adults in Glasgow who attended a cultural event or place in the last year are more likely to visit a wider range of cultural places.

C4: Attendance at cultural events and visiting places of culture in the last 12 months. Glasgow City, 2007-2011

Source: Scottish Household Survey

The percentage of adults in Glasgow City who did not attend a cultural event or place of culture in the last 12 months varied from 24% and 27% between 2007 and 2011.

C5: Participation in cultural activities by adults in the last 12 months. Scotland 2007-2011

Source: Scottish Household Survey

The table shows that the percentage of adults who participated in a cultural activity in the last 12 months has increased from 71% to 73% between 2010 and 2011 but this is lower than the value recorded in 2007 and 2008 (74%). Reading for pleasure is consistently the most popular form of cultural participation. This has been at around 63 or 64% of adults in each of the years between 2007 and 2011, except for 2010 (61%).

At a national level the percentage of adults who participated in a cultural activity in the last 12 months other than reading in 2011 has also shown an increase from 2010 levels (42% compared with 40%) but is lower than the 2007 figure (46%). Dance participation in the last 12 months has fallen from 23% in 2007 to 17% in 2011, although this has been no change in this activity in the last 2 years. Participation in other cultural activities has seen little change between 2007 and 2011.

The percentage of adults who did not participate in a cultural activity in the last 12 months varied from 26% and 29% between 2007 and 2011.

C6: Participation in cultural activities by adults in the last 12 months. Glasgow City 2007-2011

Source: Scottish Household Survey

The table shows that the percentage of adults who participated in a cultural activity in Glasgow City in the last 12 months has increased from 69% to 72% between 2010 and 2011 but this is lower than the value recorded in 2008 (74%). In general, the cultural participation figures for Glasgow are in line or slightly lower than for Scotland as a whole. As with adults in Scotland as a whole, reading for pleasure has been consistently the most popular form of cultural participation.

In Glasgow City, the percentage of adults who participated in a cultural activity in the last 12 months other than reading has also shown an increase from 2010 levels (40% compared with 38%), but this is lower than in the previous years (44% of adults).

As with the Scotland figures, the percentage of adults who have danced in the last 12 months has fallen from 2007 to 2011. Participation by adults in other cultural activities is broadly in line with the national average.

The percentage of adults in Glasgow City who did not participate in a cultural activity in the last months varied from 26% and 32% between 2007 and 2011.

Data is not available for young people at present but will become available through the Schools Omnibus survey in 2013.

C8: GVA - creative industries

Please see flourishing annex (F1) for the information on the indicator and data from 2008 to 2011.

Further, a more detailed assessment of the contribution of the creative and arts industry and Scotland was commissioned by Creative Scotland and reported in June 2012[60]

C9: Employment - creative industries

Please see flourishing annex (F3) for the information on the indicator and data from 2008 to 2011.

3) Enhance young people's learning and everyone's understanding and celebration of our and other countries' cultures

This section looks at indicators which monitor whether the Commonwealth Games increases learning and celebration of our and other cultures. This is important particularly for young people who are in education, as well as for the general population and is linked to the Curriculum for Excellence and it's cross cutting theme of global citizenship.

C10: National and civic pride among adults and young people following the Commonwealth Games

Why is this indicator important? National and civic pride are important components in peoples sense of well-being and happiness, whether people look after their local area, and they affect peoples' level of community involvement. National and civic pride are particularly important in times of economic uncertainty and help to reinforce our resilience. They can also help promote Scotland and Scotland's cities on the world stage and can encourage visitors and business to come to Scotland and its cities. It is hoped that national and civic pride will increase following the Commonwealth Games 2014.

Information on national and civic pride following the Commonwealth Games will be collected through an annual School and Adult Omnibus Survey. Questions will include the percentage of respondents who, follow the Games, are personally "proud of Scotland, of myself, of athletes, of Glasgow" (Omnibus Question) and the percentage of people who say following the Games "more people who live in this country will be proud" and "there will be more of a community spirit in the country". It is hoped that pride both at a national level and a civic level will increase around the time of the event and will be sustained post event.

What do the data tell us? Information will become available on this indicator during 2013.

C11: Understanding and celebration of Scottish and other cultures (including the commonwealth) among adults and young people

Why is this indicator important? One of the opportunities afforded by hosting the Commonwealth Games in 2014 is an opportunity to learn about other cultures, particularly those across the Commonwealth. If the Commonwealth Games improves peoples' understanding and celebration of Scottish and other cultures it gives an opportunity to increase community cohesion in a multi-cultural Scotland and promote equality and diversity. It will also help to promote Scotland as a brand internationally.

The education programme for the 2014 Games and the 2014 Celebrate 2014 Fund (which will promote and celebrate our and other countries culture) are in the early development stage. It is intended that in the development of these we will build in both evaluation and measurement of attitudinal change and understanding within the school and adult population. This will be both in the run up to the Games in 2014 and post Games through a range of research approaches including the measurement of attitudinal change through national adult and school omnibus surveys. These will ask questions on whether respondents feel they can learn a lot from people from other countries and whether people know a lot about the Commonwealth. It is hoped that this indicator will show an increased understanding and celebration of culture by the time of the event which will be sustained in terms of peoples understanding post event.

What do the data tell us? Data will become available for this indicator during 2013.

C12: Understanding of global citizenship among children and young people

Why is this indicator important? Global citizenship is about recognising our responsibilities towards each other and the wider world. Within Curriculum for Excellence the outcome will be our children and young people as global citizens, able to take up their place in the world, contribute to it confidently, successfully and effectively, understanding the rights and responsibilities of living and working in a globalised world. Global citizenship includes development of knowledge, understanding, skills and values: learning about a globalised world; learning for life and work in a global society; and learning through global contexts.

As outlined above, the education programme for the 2014 Games and the Celebrate 2014 Fund (which will promote and celebrate our and other countries culture) are in the early development stage. It is intended that in the development of these we will build in both evaluation and measurement of attitudinal change and understanding within the school and adult population. This will be both in the run up to the Games in 2014 and post Games through a range of research approaches including the measurement of attitudinal change through national school omnibus survey. Questions will include a range of questions measuring attitudinal change in respect to global citizenship around giving to charity, everyone being entitled to the same standard of living as people in Scotland, how hard people work and whether that is linked to how much you earn, and personal empowerment to make change happen. It is hoped that this indicator will show an increased understanding and celebration of culture by the time of the event which will be sustained in terms of peoples understanding post event.

What do the data tell us? Data will become available for this indicator during 2013.

Conclusions

The indicators in the connected theme relate to attitudes toward Scotland and the Commonwealth Games, attendance and participation in cultural events and activities, and cultural learning and celebration around the Games. Many of the indicators under the connected theme are under development at this time. During the next few years data will become available around these which enable a picture to be formed. At this time it is therefore hard to comment collectively on the connected indicators.

Annex 4: Sustainable

Introduction

The Glasgow 2014 Games provides a potential catalyst to help communities live more sustainably, and creates an opportunity to demonstrate environmental responsibility. This is reflected in the high environmental standards set out as part of Glasgow's successful bid for delivering the Games, and in the plans for creating an enduring legacy extending across Glasgow, Scotland and for some of the Commonwealth counties before and beyond the 2014 Games.

'Sustainable' can be seen as one of the most multi-faceted legacy themes of the Glasgow 2014 Games and has environmental, regeneration, social, community and some international elements to it. These elements are being delivered at different levels and by a number of different agencies, including local and national government and international charitable organisations. They are working together as part of unique partnership to deliver a Sustainable legacy for Scotland.

Previous Research

In considering how to deliver a 'Sustainable' legacy important lessons can be learned from research evidence on delivering large scale sporting events. The overarching messages from the research review are:

- Hosting a large event can create a large environmental footprint in terms of the waste created, travel required and food and drink consumed.

- Due consideration must be given to how sporting infrastructure is used in the long-term.

- Games-related regeneration should be incorporated into long-term regeneration objectives.

- Regeneration initiatives associated with major sporting events can have both positive and negative impact. One issue raised in the literature was forced evictions and forced relocation of local housing and business.

In detail the research also pointed to a range of issues that can be related to the regeneration process:

- A tendency to replace what has been before rather than building on existing resources.

- A lack of clear communication channels between local officials and residents.

- A lack of acknowledgement of the different relative positions of stakeholders, leading to sense of powerlessness among residents.

Finally a substantial body of research also highlighted the potential problem of long‐term use of event infrastructure, often referred to as the problem of 'White Elephants', and highlighted a number of strategic issues:

- Insufficient long‐term plans for legacy, instead it was assumed that legacy would happen naturally.

- Lack of coordination between the public and the private sector.

- Too much focus on the inner city with insufficient integration with wider areas.

- Permanent buildings that were too large for everyday use.

In the development of the delivery of a sustainable legacy a number of the above lessons have been considered including, how venues will be utilised before and after the event; expediting existing regenerations plans within the East End of Glasgow; and the adoption of green Games management techniques for the delivery of the Glasgow 2014 Games.

Strategies and Programmes

An overview of the strategies and programmes that seek to deliver a Sustainable legacy are outlined below under the three intermediate outcomes:

- Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the east end.

- Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth.

- Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility

This is intended to be a current snapshot of some of the activity being undertaken and should not been seen as representative of the whole range of activity.

1) Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow and in particular the East End.

As part of the regeneration element, which relates to Glasgow and particularly the east end, there has been significant investment in sport venues. These have been built or redeveloped with clear consideration of how Games venues will be utilised before and after the Glasgow 2014 Games.

For example:

- Commonwealth Arena - unparalleled in Scotland, this is one of the largest facilities of its kind in Europe. It is a flexible community facility with 12 Badminton Courts and a Sports Hall complex that comprises three sports halls with 5,000 spectator seats, dance and fitness studios. There are also external multi-court areas, media, event control and hospitality suites and offices for governing bodies of sport and SportsScotland. The flexibility of the arena is showcased through the ability to switch a button which allows a 200-metre indoor athletics track to be hydraulically lifted from below in order to host Indoor Athletics events.

- The Hydro - forming part of the Scottish Exhibition and Conference Centre Precinct the Hydro has been designed by internationally renowned architect Sir Norman Foster. His design includes an amphitheatre-style arena which can house a full Olympic size gymnastics layout with 12,500 seats. The venue has already helped Glasgow to attract the 2015 International Gymnastic Championships

- Tollcross Aquatic Centre - providing the competition venue for swimming in Glasgow 2014 the centre has been upgraded to provide both a warm-up and a competition pool. Other facilities within the aquatic centre have also been up-graded including the changing facilities, fitness suite, health suite and dance studio. The development of Tollcross will provide both Glasgow and Scotland with a world class swimming venue, but importantly will enhance quality and scale of the sporting provision in the East End of Glasgow.

While the majority of sporting venues are within Glasgow City there are also a number of 'satellite' venues located outside Glasgow, for example Barry Buddon near Carnoustie in Angus on the East Coast of Scotland which will host the shooting competition and the Royal Commonwealth Pool in Edinburgh which will host the diving competition. Both of these facilities have been refurbished and provide opportunities for the local community in other areas of Scotland to access the Games.

Building has not been restricted to sports venues, following on from existing regeneration plans; the East End of Glasgow is undergoing an expedited regeneration programme. This accelerated regeneration has been led by the Clyde Gateway Urban Regeneration Company ('Clyde Gateway'). The work of Clyde Gateway is not only about the physical transformation brought about by the vast range of infrastructure being developed and upgraded for and around the Games. It is about involving local people and businesses in decisions and actions that impact on them and their community; giving them their say in influencing and shaping their area.

There have been 76 public consultations over the past three years on various plans and proposals reaching over 1400 people. A steering group of residents has been established to advise and guide Clyde Gateway with on-going plans for the Bridgeton Cross area and it was the views of this group that led Clyde Gateway to purchase the Olympia Theatre and to work up a viable plan to bring it back into use in advance of the 2014 Commonwealth Games.

Over a 20 year period the Clyde Gateway development will eventually include approximately 10,000 homes with around 20,000 new residents by 2028 and this includes the redevelopment of the athletes village which will create around 700 new homes - with approximately 300 homes for social rent and an 120 bed care home.

In addition there will be new and upgraded roads, public transport, parks and walkways which will provide a lasting public infrastructure to support development of the areas economy. For example:

- Dalmarnock Station - will be the main public transport hub for all the sporting venues in the East End of Glasgow. The station is currently undergoing an £11M upgrade that includes the delivery of a new station building, lift access to both platforms, a new pedestrian footbridge and new customer information and communications systems. The redevelopment will provide a lasting physical legacy for the local community following 2014.

- M74 upgrade - the upgrading of the M74 was completed in 2011, it is hoped that it will improve journey times for Games Family members and spectators, with reduced traffic congestion on roads across Glasgow and South Lanarkshire. Those travelling from the Games village to venues out with the city should also benefit.

2) Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth

This theme looks at communities, at home and in the Commonwealth, and how they can be empowered and strengthened. The Glasgow 2014 Games also provide a unique opportunity for Scotland to share skills and knowledge within our communities and with other Commonwealth countries.

A programme of projects has been developed and includes:

The Scottish Community Development Centre is now working with ten groups and organisations across the country to help them get involved with legacy activity as part of their Commonwealth Games Legacy for Communities Programme.

Games for Scotland programme, which is in its third year, will see Games for Scotland events take place across 26 local authorities giving local people the chance to join the excitement in the lead up to the 2014 Games and to take part in and enjoy sport and dance activities.

- The Scottish Sport Relief Home and Away Programme was launched in July 2012 and represents a joint partnership between the Scottish Government, Sport Relief and sportscotland. The programme will support a number of projects both at 'home' within Scotland and 'away' in Commonwealth countries. Nine 'home' projects are already being supported and include helping people with mental health problems and learning disabilities. An announcement of those projects supported by the away element of the fund is due by the end of the year.

3) Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility

Environmental delivery

As highlighted above delivering a large sporting event can potentially have a massive environmental impact and in order to minimise this impact Glasgow 2014 have employed green management methods, for example:

- Adoption of Low Emission Zones - these will be declared around all areas around venues and the athletes village.

- Low waste to landfill - contracting with suppliers to ensure that at least 80% of waste during the Games is diverted from landfill.

- Integrated ticketing systems - encouraging use of public transport to travel to Games venues and creating a legacy of better public transport links more generally across the city.

- BS20121 standard - utilising the British Standard for sustainable event management, used in the London 2012 Olympics, which sets out requirements of planning and managing a sustainable event.

It is hoped that the strategies they have used will deliver a 'green' games and that these, combined with 19 'Green' projects being supported as part of Glasgow City Council's Glasgow 2014 Legacy Framework, will help to make Glasgow one of the most sustainable cities in Europe. The 19 'Green' projects include:

- 2014 Multifunctional Green Space Project - implementing four multifunctional greenspace projects at either vacant and derelict land or low value 'green desert' type amenity sites throughout the City. These focus on ecological enhancements that can deliver a range of additional benefits and functions including water management issues. Two projects have already been confirmed in South Dalmarnock and Camlachie.

- Commonwealth Parks - A wide ranging initiative that includes: identifying Biodiversity Action Projects with a school in each Community Health and Care Partnership area of the city; an eco schools biodiversity day to include a Commonwealth twinning theme each year; habitat creation and enhancement; provide sites within the parks which are suitable for environmental education initiatives and activities delivered by Countryside Rangers. This should contribute to improving the active infrastructure and ensure access to new green spaces across local area.

- 2014 Clyde Walkway Pilot Project (CWPP) - developing and implementing a city-wide Action Plan for the Clyde Walkway, the National Cycle Route 75. As well as setting up a Clyde Walkway Steering Group to implement Clyde Walkway Pilot Project recommendations and to ensure it is kept updated.

- Stalled spaces - supporting community and other groups in the development of stalled space projects (stalled spaces are those ear marked for development but have stalled due to the economic downturn) throughout the City and delvering funded stalled space projects on the ground. In 2011 the project brought almost 12 hectares of stalled space into temporary use.

The strategies link directly with the objective of Glasgow's Environmental Strategy 2006-2010. It is hoped that the Glasgow 2014 Games will be a catalyst for improved environmental outcomes for the city and exemplar for Scotland as a whole. The indicators that we have chosen to measure take account of these ambitions at a Glasgow City level and consider how these ambitions may be translated to Scotland as part of the potential 'demonstration effect' of the Glasgow 2014 Games.

Environmental design

The environmental impact of large events goes beyond delivery of the event itself. In order to create a sustainable legacy, the highest principles of environmental responsibility in design, services and materials are being utilised. New or improved technological methods and materials are being used in the development of the Glasgow 2014 Games Village and venues to provide practical exemplars for future developments. These include:

- The use of a distributed district heating network - establishing the city's first district heating network in Dalmarnock which will use low carbon fuels (biogas) to contribute to low carbon targets associated with the Athletes' Village. The heating system will be operational from December 2013 and is currently being commissioned.

- Sustainable design of athletes village - landscape consultants have advised on how best to increase biodiversity through the introduction of native specifies. Early consideration has been given to the transformation of the athletes village to provide an innovative mix of housing tenure along with a care home of the elderly.

- Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) - SUDS are being used at many of the Commonwealth Games venues including Commonwealth Arena/ Velodrome. GCC, in partnership with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and Scottish Water, are planning a modern drainage infrastructure network for Glasgow's East End. Their approach aims to take surface water run-off from rainfall out of the normal combined drainage system, freeing up capacity for new development in the area.

It is hoped that these will help to improve sustainable standards of living in the long term within Glasgow.

Environmental community

The Games have also provided the opportunity for existing environmental projects to be expanded. For example:

- The Forestry Commission Scotland have developed nine Community Woodland sites, with additional sites proposed, each has its own activities programme to allow local communities to engage in various activities, including Commonwealth-themed sculpture trails, tree stories and music workshops, walking routes and woodland workouts.

- A new urban woodland is being created at the Cunigar Loop located at the heart of Glasgow's East End.

- The Park Run scheme is being expanded to more communities across Scotland.

- Zero Waste Scotland is now beginning to work with the first 11 facilities, who have agreed to upgrade and use Recycling on the Go to encourage people to recycle more, before 2014. This waste reduction initiative linked to the Glasgow 2014 Games is to encourage increased recycling 'on the go' with a particular focus on sports venues, facilities and major sporting events Scotland wide.

The hope is that through all of programmes outlined above that the Glasgow 2014 Games will help people at home and within the Commonwealth to live more sustainable lives.

Our Sustainable Indicators

Following widespread consultation the following 15 'outcome indicators' were chosen for the 'sustainable' theme. The 'environmental' and 'regeneration' elements of 'sustainable' will impact most within Glasgow and as such the outcome indicators that we have chosen reflect this. However, as has been shown in previous major sporting events there is the potential for a 'demonstration effect' from the event itself and therefore where relevant we also look at some indicators at a Scottish level. It is cleared noted within the text whether we are using Scottish data for context or to show some kind of 'demonstration effect'.

There is still some development, particularly around the 'strengthening and empowering communities' element, of the 'sustainable' theme to be undertaken and we will be working with partners over the coming months on this. However, due to the nature of the projects being undertaken both nationally and internationally it is likely that any evaluative work will be qualitative in nature. This work, along with monitoring data, will be referenced in future reports.

Finally, it is important to note that there is no hierarchy of indicators employed, however indicators have been organised using the intermediate outcomes for 'sustainable'.

Headline Indicators: Sustainable

HEADLINE INDICATORS

Scotland

Glasgow

East End

Source

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the east end.

S1: Perception of neighbourhood improvement: % of adults who think their neighbourhood has improved in the last 3 years.

√

GW

SHS

S2: Perception of local community: % of adults who rate their community as a very good place to live

√

GW

SHS

S3: Perception of community facilities: % of adults satisfied with community centres and facilities

√

X

SHS

S4: Perception of community safety: % of adults who feel safe in their local area after dark

√

GW

SCJS

S5: Perception of crime rate: % of adults who perceive the crime rate in there area to have stayed the same ore reduced in the past two years.

√

GW

SCJS

S6: International Rating of Personal Safety: Mercer Personal Safety Ranking

X

√

X

Mercer

S7: Green Space: Green space in Glasgow and East End (ha)

X

√

√

GSS

S8: Vacant and Derelict Land - Land brought back into use (ha) and Derelict Land/Vacant and Derelict Land (ha)

X

√

√

SVDL

S9: Population: Population in Glasgow and East End

X

√

√

SGNS

S10: Quality of Living: Mercer Quality of Living Ranking

X

√

X

Mercer

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth.

S11: Perception of community influence: % of adults who feel they can influence decisions in their local area

√

√

GW

SHS

INTERMEDIATE OUTCOME: Demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility.

S12: Neighbourhood cleanliness: Over all Cleanliness

X

X

LEAMS

S13: Rates of recycling: % of households recycling items

√

GW

SHS

S14: Waste destination: % recycled, landfilled and composted

√

X

SEPA

S15: Understanding of environmental responsibility

√

X

√

MORI

SHS - Scottish Household Survey SGNS - Scottish Government Neighbourhood Statistics; GSS - Greenspace Scotland;
SCJS - Scottish Crime and Justice Survey; LEAMS - Local Environmental Audit and Management System;
SHCS - Scottish House Conditions Survey; SVDL - Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land survey;
SEPA - Scottish Environmental Protection Agency; MORI: Schools Omnibus; Mercer - Mercer quality of living and personal safety ranking
GW will become available through Go Well √ Available X Not relevant/not applicable For context; not direct influence

Tracking Indicators Since Baseline

In this section we look at the latest available data for all the 'sustainable' indicators, explore why they are important and examine recent trends since 2008. We also look briefly at what we know about the outcomes for sub-groups, where appropriate and available. We will gain more insight on trends and patterns as further data points become available.

It is important to note at this stage, as set out in chapter 2, that the indicators presented here are, in theory, amenable to change due to the Games, but they only form part of the picture, and we would not expect a change in many of these indicators at this juncture. As our work progresses, primary research and evaluation will provide the 'bottom-up' evidence that will help assess the contribution of the Games. More of these data will be available in our 2014 report.

1) Improve the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the east-end.

Ten indicators have been chosen to measure this intermediate outcome; these indicators allow us to measure key aspects of the physical and social environment of Scotland, Glasgow and, where available, the east end. As is noted above, the analysis focuses on Glasgow and the east end as this is where we will see the majority of the initial legacy impact however at a Scottish level there is also the potential for a demonstration effect; therefore data is provided at Scottish level for context and this is clearly noted.

S1: Neighbourhood Improvement

Why is this indicator important? S1 allows us to understand adults' perceptions of whether their neighbourhood has improved over the last three years and is measured within the Scottish Household Survey. This indicator fits within the regeneration element of sustainable and allows us to examine the impact of regeneration on perceptions of neighbourhood improvement in Glasgow, while providing a context for this at a Scottish level. The regeneration being undertaken at Glasgow and East End level is already well underway and it is likely that we would see an increase in perceptions of improvement as these reach completion. However, it is important to consider that there may be some disruption caused by building works, although steps having been taken to minimise this, it could still impact adversely on perceptions of improvements.

Perception of neighbourhood improvement

Source: SHS

What do the data tell us? Perceptions of neighbourhood improvement have remained consistent with 17-19% of adults indicating that their area got much better or a little better in the over the last three years between 2008 and 2011. Perceptions of improvement have also remained consistent in Scotland, although at a lower level, over the same time period. In 2011 we see a slight increase at Glasgow level in perceptions of improvement compared to a slight decrease at Scottish levels. In 2013 we will have data from Go Well study for the East End of Glasgow on neighbourhood perception.

S2: Perception of local community

Why is this indicator important? S2 helps us to understand the impact of regeneration on neighbourhood perception within Glasgow. Perceptions of a community being a good place to live are also important in defining a sustainable community (Rogerson et al, 2011[61] ) and therefore this will provide us with a good measure. The Scottish Household Survey asks whether adults perceive their community to be a very good place to live and we are able to disaggregate this to Glasgow level. Sitting within the improving the physical and social environment of Glasgow section of 'sustainable' this indicator complements S1. It allows us to consider community life as well as improvements as a result of Glasgow 2014 Games related regeneration. The expectation is that the majority of this impact will be in Glasgow and the East End of Glasgow; with an increase in those perceiving their community as a good place to live over time due to the improvements being made city wide.

What do the data tell us?

In Glasgow from 2008 to 2010 there was an increase in the percentage of people who rated their community as a very good place to live from 35.5% in 2008 to 43.9% in 2010, however in 2011 there was a decrease to 38.6%. The decrease was significant, however it should also be noted that the 2010 figure represents the highest recorded since the time series began in 1999. At a Scottish level, we see a higher percentage of adults rating their community as a very good place live, however this has increased less rapidly than at a Glasgow level and remains consistent in 2011. We will be able examine this indicator at an East End level through the GoWell survey in 2013, which asks 'how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with this neighbourhood as a place to live?'.

Perception of community

Source: SHS

S3: Perception of community facilities

Why is the indicator important? S3 measures adults' satisfaction with community centres and facilities. The data for this indicator comes from the Scottish Household Survey where adults are asked to rate their satisfaction with the quality of community centres and facilities. Falling within the improving the physical and social environment of 'sustainable' this indicator allows us to look at the impact of the regeneration of facilities within Glasgow for the 2014 Games. Scottish data is also provided here for context, however as suggested within the intermediate outcome we would expect much of the improvement to be within Glasgow, and particularly the east end of Glasgow. It is anticipated that following the development and opening to the public of the Glasgow 2014 Games venues, e.g. sports centres, we would see an increase in adults satisfaction. In a similar way to S1, however, there may be an adverse impact due to the building work being undertaken and some centres being closed while they are being refurbished. We might expect this adverse impact to be mitigated once data is available from the period when the venues are open.

What do the data tell us? In Glasgow, the proportion of adults stating they are very or fairly satisfied with community centres and facilities increases slightly from 22% in 2008 to 24% in 2010, however in 2011 we see a slight reduction to 23%. Overall, we see higher levels of satisfaction at Scottish level, varying around 30% over the same time period. We might expect to see growing satisfaction with facilities in Glasgow due to the development and refurbishment of many facilities as part of Glasgow 2014.

Perception of community facilities

Source: SHS

S4: Perception of Community Safety

Why is this indicator important? S4 measures how safe adults feel in their local area after dark. The question 'how safe do you feel walking alone in your local area after dark' is commonly used to measure public anxiety about crime. This will help us to understand the impact of the changes of the physical and social environment in Glasgow; Scottish data is provided for context. Evidence suggests that people will access their local community more if they feel safe within it, through the physical regeneration of Glasgow and the East End and the range of developments being undertaken it is hoped that greater access will be facilitated. Therefore we might expect, as the regeneration is completed, that more people feel safe or very safe within their local area after dark.

Perception of community safety

Source: SCJS

What do the data tell us? In 2010/11 the majority of adults in Glasgow (61%) stated that they felt safe (very safe 20%; fairly safe 41%) in their local area after dark, this figure has been broadly consistent since 2008/9. Scottish level data have also been stable with between 66-68% of adults perceiving their area to be safe, with a gender split at a Scottish level showing that males were more likely than females to feel safe (in 2010/11 males feeling very or fairly safe 82% against 55% of females). We will be able to measure this at east end level in 2013 through Go-Well; where participants are asked 'How safe would or do you feel walking alone in this neighbourhood after dark?'

S5. Perception of Crime Rate

Why is this indicator important? The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey asks adults who have lived in their local area for two years or more what their perception is of the crime rate is over the past two years; uncovering whether they believe it has stayed the same, is less or more. It is hoped that the changes to the physical and social environment of Glasgow may impact on this indicator; namely we would expect that there would be an increase in those perceiving crime to have stayed the same or reduced.

What do the data tell us? In table S1, at a Glasgow Community Justice area level, we can see that since 2008 we have seen a small reduction in percentage of people perceiving crime to have stayed the same or reduce.

Table S1: Perception of Crime Rate - % of adults who perceive the crime rate to have reduced or stayed the same

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

Glasgow

71%

69%

69%

Scotland

69.0%

70.90%

73.5%

Source: SCJS

Over the same time period at a Scotland level we have seen the converse with a small increase in those perceiving crime to have stayed the same or reduced. From the Go-Well study we will have East End level data in 2013 for this indicator - Go-Well asks the following question; 'How much would you say the crime rate in your local area has changed since two years ago? Would you say there is more, less or about the same amount of crime?'

S6: International Rating of Personal Safety

Why is this indicator important? The Mercer personal safety ranking is based on measures of internal stability, crime levels, law enforcement effectiveness and host country international relations. Through monitoring this ranking overtime we will be able to consider the impact of the various parts of regeneration as a whole on the variety of measures included. The ranking is utilised by business, most commonly, to assess the risk of personnel working in cities around the world. Glasgow is compared with other relevant cities, which may change over time. As noted above, currently within Scotland we have the lowest actual crime rate since the 1970's and if this stays at similar levels we might expect that Glasgow could move up the rankings over time.

What do the data tell us? In 2011 Glasgow was 44th in the Mercer Personal Safety World ranking for personal safety (In 2008, the last time this was reported Glasgow was ranked 43rd). In 2011 it shared it's ranking with Aberdeen (also ranked 44th) and together they are the highest ranked UK cities. Melbourne, a former Commonwealth Games host city, is ranked 25th.

S7: Green Space

Why is this indicator important? As described above, an integral part of the Sustainable legacy is creating more community parks and woodland. In order to understand the wider impact of these initiatives it is helpful to measure the area of green space (including parks, woodland, and other open free green spaces) within Glasgow.

What do the data tell us?

Map S1 - Greenspace in the East End of Glasgow

In map S1 we see the greenspace that currently exists within the East End at 2011, this is categorised by type of space. The total area of greenspace in the East End is 203 hectares; with the largest areas being private gardens or grounds (including schools) 56 hectares, public parks and gardens 48 hectares and the Cuningar Loop community woodland 26 hectares.

S8: Vacant and Derelict Land

Vacant and derelict land can affect local community well-being and impacts on the local environment. Vacant land is land which is unused for the purposes for which it is held and is viewed as an appropriate site for development and derelict land (and buildings) is land which has been so damaged by development, that it is incapable of development for beneficial use without rehabilitation. The following indicator examine vacant and derelict land at Glasgow and East End levels.

Land brought back into use (ha)

Why is this indicator important? To help understand more fully the wider impacts of regeneration on Glasgow through the Glasgow 2014 Games it is important to look at the area of vacant and derelict land that has been brought back into use both Glasgow wide and specifically at an East End level.

What do the data tell us?

In table S2 we see that at both a Glasgow and East End level[62] a variable amount of land has been brought back into use with a peak at East End level in 2011 and in Glasgow in 2008.

Table S2: Vacant and derelict land brought back into use into use in hectares.

2008

2009

2010

2011

Glasgow

76

56

72

52

East End

2.21

6.41

3.38

8.01

Source: SVDL

The increase in 2011 would be expected due to the number of Glasgow 2014 Games related projects being taken forward. It is interesting to note that while there has been a reduction in land being brought back into use at a Glasgow level in 2011 we have not seen the same reduction in the East End.

Vacant and Derelict Land

Why is this indicator important? Through examining the area of vacant and derelict land still existing within Glasgow and the East of Glasgow we are able to help establish a fuller picture of the impact of the Glasgow 2014 Games on wider regeneration on the East End and Glasgow more widely.

Total area of derelict land in Glasgow and in the East End of Glasgow

Source: VDLS

What do the data tell us? Following on from S11 we would expect to see that the total area of derelict land within Glasgow and the East End of Glasgow would be reducing. Looking at derelict land alone we see that the reduction has been steady at a Glasgow level from 712 hectares, however at East End level the reduction has not been as pronounced. This may be due to much of the land being utilised for 2014 having already been made ready for use prior to 2009, when our measurement starts.

The total area of derelict and vacant land between 2009-2011 within Glasgow and East End again shows a larger reduction at Glasgow level compared to East End, despite smaller geographies. This may again be due to the land having already transferred to use prior to 2009.

Total area of vacant and derelict land in Glasgow and the East End of Glasgow

Source: VDLS

S9: Population

Why is this indicator important? As is highlighted above in the review of previous literature regeneration initiatives associated with major sporting events can have both positive and negative impacts. One issue is the relocation of local housing and business, a further issue is the availability of new housing and business premises. A part of measuring the improvement in the physical and social environment of Glasgow and in particularly the East End it is important for us to measure the population over time to understand if there are any population changes in terms of numbers and demographics.

What do the data tell us?

Map S2: Population in the East of Glasgow ranked by Scottish Index of multiple deprivation.

Map 2 uses the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) to rank the population in the East End from most to least deprived. SIMD provides a relative measure of deprivation and produces a relative ranking from most deprived (rank 1) to least deprived (rank 6,505).

As you can see within map S2, the population within the East of Glasgow currently falls within the most deprived end of the ranking scale, as can be seen in blue and green. However, we can also see that there are pockets, shown in yellow, within the East End where the population is at the least deprived end of the scale. More detailed examination of the population within the East of Glasgow is being undertaken through the Go Well study (see chapter 2 for more details).

Map S3: Population change in the East End of Glasgow from 2008 -2011

Map S3 shows the population change between 2008-2011, we can see that there has been some variable population change across the area. A large area of the East End population has changed by less than 50 over the time period, however there are also some areas where we see increases in over 100. Over the time period of the evaluation we would expect to see the overall population increase within the East End, particularly once the athletes' village has been readapted.

S10: Quality of Life

Why is this indicator important? This indicator comes from the Mercer Quality of Living Survey, which ranks cities according to 39 different factors based on the following categories: consumer goods; economic environment; housing, medical and health considerations; natural environment; political and social environment; public services and transport; recreation; schools and education; socio-cultural and environment. The survey, which already includes Glasgow, allows us to consider the impact the Glasgow 2014 Games is having on Glasgow's international ranking of quality of living and in turn understand how it has improved the social and physical environment of Glasgow and the East End.

What do the data tell us?

Table S3: Mercer International Quality of living survey for Glasgow

Year

Ranking

2008

56

2009

56

2010

57

2011

56

Source: Mercer

In table S3, we can see from the data that between 2008 and 2011 Glasgow has had a very similar ranking, falling slightly in 2010 by one place. Two years prior to hosting the London 2012 Olympics, London were ranked 39th. This compares to former Commonwealth Games hosts Melbourne who were ranked 18th in the same year. European cities dominate the top places in the quality of living survey; with Vienna ranked 1st, followed by Zurich in 2nd place, Munich in 4th and Dusseldorf in 5th, Auckland is the only non-European city and is ranked 3rd. It is expected that as preparations for the Glasgow 2014 Games continue we will see Glasgow move up the ranking.

Conclusion

Overall we can already see that Glasgow has improving perceptions of neighbourhood improvements and that there has been increases in the number of people seeing their community as a very good place to live (between 2008-2010). This is set within the context of the lowest crime rate since the 1970's, however there has been a reduction in the number of those in Glasgow perceiving the crime rate to have stayed the same or reduced. We also reductions the amount of land being vacant or derelict at a Glasgow and East End level, showing the impact of the regeneration and development programmes. There are indications here that the foundations are set for overall improvement of physical and social environment of Glasgow, and in particular the East End.

2) Strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth.

The impact that the Glasgow 2014 Games will have on people's lives and its ability to help people live more sustainably is being measured within this section. The indicators outlined above also relate to this intermediate outcome, highlighting the interconnected nature of Sustainable legacy.

Due to the range of individual programmes being undertaken and the specific nature of the 'commonwealth' aspect of this intermediate outcome, we have not been able to identify as many indicators that are fit for purpose. Therefore, this outcome will be examined in more detail within qualitative evaluative work, which is currently being developed, and further analysis of monitoring data, that is already being collected by the Scottish Government. The ecological study being undertaken as part of the Go Well study in the East End (see Chapter 2 para 18) will also feed into our understanding of this intermediate outcome. All of this work will be developed over the next 18 months and be referenced in future reports.

The indicator outlined below focuses on capturing how the Glasgow 2014 Games will empower communities, which is being facilitated through programmes such as Sport Relief Home and Away and Games for Scotland.

S12: Perception of community influence

Why is this indicator important? S12 looks at the proportion of adults who feel that they can influence descisions in their local area and the data is from the Scottish Household Survey. This indicator helps us to understand the impact the Glasgow 2014 Games is having on perceptions of community decision making. It is considered at a Glasgow and a Scotland level to help us pick up on the impact of a variety of legacy programmes which seek to empower communities. We anticipate that we will see an increase in the number of adults feeling that are able to influence decisions over the time period; particularly within the East End of Glasgow.

Perception of community influence

What do the data tell us? Adults believing that they can influence descisions in their local area has been streadily increseasing year on year in Glasgow, since 2008 from 21% to 26% in 2011 either agreeing strongly or tending to agree with the statement "I can influence decisions in my local area". However, at a Scottish level we have seen consistent levels around 22% for the same time period. We will have east end level data through Go Well in 2013, where the respondents will be asked whether they agree with the statement 'I can influence decisions in my local area'.

Conclusion

We can see from the above indicator that there is a higher perception of community influence at a Glasgow level when compared to the rest of Scotland. The other aspects of strengthening and empowering communities will be measured through additional analytical and monitoring work which will be reported in 2013.

3) Demonstrate Sustainable Design and Environmental Responsibility.

Four indicators have been chosen to measure the impact of demonstrating sustainable design and environmental responsibility. The indicators examine issues relating to sustainable building design through the house quality, energy efficiency of new builds and environmental behaviours.

S12: Neighbourhood Cleanliness

Why is this indicator important? Utilising LEAMS (Local Environmental Audit and Management System), which is a statutory Performance Indicator of street cleanliness for local authorities in Scotland, we hope to help examine the overall impact of the Glasgow 2014 Games to demonstrate environmental responsibility. Data is collected at local authority level on an annual basis and we will compare the overall cleanliness rating for Scotland and for other similar cities (those ranked within the urban classification in LEAMS). If we consider the potential demonstration effect of the Games within the environmental responsibility element of 'sustainable' we would expect to be able to see some impact across Scotland over the time period.

What do the data tell us?

Table S4: National percentage distribution of cleanliness grades awarded

Scotland

% Acceptable

%Unacceptable

Grade A

Grade B

Grade C

Grade D

2010/11

28%

68%

4%

0.2%

2009/10

25%

71%

4%

0.2%

2008/9

26%

70%

4%

0.2%

Source: LEAMS

Local Authorities (LAs) are assessed and given a grading on an A-D scale; with A being the highest and D being the lowest. Grades A&B are classed as 'acceptable' and Grade C&D as 'unacceptable'. From the Scottish level data we see that while throughout Scotland most LAs achieve an 'acceptable' grading most of these are at a B grade.

Table S5: Percentage distribution of cleanliness grades awarded in urban areas

Urban

Grade A

Grade B

Grade C

Grade D

2010/11

36%

61%

2%

0.10%

2009/10

31%

67%

3%

0.01%

2008/9

31%

66%

3%

0.10%

Source: LEAMS

If we look in detail at those LAs classified as 'urban' within LEAMS (Aberdeen, Dundee, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Glasgow City, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire). We can again see that the majority are classified as Grade A or B, however we see that since 2008 there has been an increase in LAs being classified as Grade A within the Urban category. We will add Glasgow specific data in future publications.

S13: Rates of recycling

Why is this indicator important? S13 is within the environmental element of sustainable and allows us to look at households recycling habits across the time period. The Scottish Household Survey asks adults whether they have recycled items in the past week. This provides us with data to help us understand how the Glasgow 2014 Games engenders environmental responsibility, we are examining this particularly at a Glasgow and East End level, with Scottish data being provided as context only.

What do the data tell us? Between 2008 and 2011 we have seen small increases in those households reporting that they have recycled items in the past month, from 76-81% at a Glasgow level and 87-89% at a Scottish level. In recent years we have seen historic high levels of recycling among households in Scotland. In 2013, we will have data from on the Go Well study on a very similar variable; whether adults sort household waste for recycling.

Rates of recycling

S14: Waste destination

Why is this indicator important? S14 looks at the destination of waste at a Glasgow level and for context a Scottish level, this allows us to monitor whether the destination of waste changes over time. SEPA has published an annual Waste Data Digest (the digest) since 2001. It deals with data collected by, or on behalf of, SEPA on controlled waste in Scotland. The digest covers waste arising, recovery and disposal, and includes data on local authority collected municipal wastes, as well as on commercial and industrial wastes.

The data reported has been obtained from the WasteDataFlow database. This is a web-based system for reporting on municipal waste collected by UK local authorities. All Scottish local authorities have used WasteDataFlow since 1 April 2006 to report data on waste arising, recycling and disposal.

Table S6: Destination of municipal waste

Glasgow

Landfilled

Incinerated

Recycled

Composted

2008/9

80%

0%

10%

10%

2009/10

78%

0%

11%

11%

2010/11

76%

0%

13%

11%

Scotland

Landfilled

Incinerated

Recycled

Composted

2008/9

63%

3%

22%

12%

2009/10

61%

3%

23%

14%

2010/11

59%

3%

24%

14%

Source: SEPA

What do the data tell us? The destination of waste has seen some gradual changes over the period from 2008-2010; with a gradual reduction over all in the percentage of waste going to landfill (in Glasgow the reduction was from 80% in 2008 to 76% in 2010 and Scotland wide 63% - 59% over the same time period) and conversely, a gradual increase in the percentage of waste being recycled (10-13% in Glasgow and 22-24% Scotland wide). This is a trend that we would expect to see continue over the time period. The levels of waste being incinerated and composted have remained broadly consistent across the time period, notably no waste at Glasgow level has been incinerated compared to a small percentage at Scotland level.

S15: Understanding of environmental responsibility

Why is this indicator important?

To help understand the wider impact of the environmental responsibility being demonstrated by the Games 2014, or promoted through Legacy Programmes specifically, we are conducting omnibus survey work with young people through the MORI schools omnibus. With field work commencing in October young people will be asked what do you think are the two most important things people can do to protect the environment?

Also through the Go Well study we are able to look at adults sustainable attitudes and behaviours; participants are asked whether they avoid overfilling the kettle or choose products with less packaging.

What do the data tell us?

The field work for the MORI schools omnibus is due to commence in October and we would hope to be able to track young people's attitudes towards the environment over time and once we have time series data this will be included as part of the baseline report. We should have data from Go Well in 2013 and this will be included in future reports.

Conclusion

Adults are undertaking recycling on a regular basis and within Scotland and Glasgow there are increasing rates of recycling of municipal waste. The majority of Scotland's council areas are achieving an acceptable LEAMS rating and over time we will also have data on environmental understanding. These indicators come together to help create an understanding of how sustainable design and environmental responsibility are being demonstrated and how this is impacting on attitudes and behaviours.

Overall Conclusion

The 'Sustainable' intermediate outcome indicators above seek to monitor how a legacy will be developed on improving the physical and social environment of Glasgow, in particular the east end; strengthen and empower communities in Scotland and the Commonwealth; demonstrate sustainable design and environmental responsibility. There are already indications that Glasgow, and particularly the East End of Glasgow, are seeing changes in the physical and social environment, including reductions in the area of vacant and derelict land and improving perceptions of neighbourhood improvements in the past three years. We can also see evidence that people feel more able to influence community decisions at a Glasgow level when compared to the rest of Scotland.

Annex 5: Data sources and glossary

This chapter provides information on all the data sources used within An Evaluation of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games a Legacy for Scotland: Baseline Report. Overview information is provided on the data source along with detailed information on method, sample size, and frequency of collection. A link, where relevant, is also provided to guide readers to the data source.

Also provided is a glossary giving background information on key organisations mentioned within the report.

1. Scottish Health Survey (SHeS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/scottish-health-survey)

The Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) is a cross-sectional survey which provides information about the health of people all over Scotland that cannot be obtained from other sources. This includes information about lifestyles as well as about health.

The specific aims of the Scottish Health Survey are:

- to estimate the prevalence of particular health conditions in Scotland

- to estimate the prevalence of certain risk factors associated with these health conditions and to document the pattern of related health behaviours

- to look at differences between regions and between subgroups of the population in the extent of their having these particular health conditions or risk factors, and to make comparisons with other national statistics for Scotland and England

- to monitor trends in the population's health over time

- to make a major contribution to monitoring progress towards health targets

The survey has been running continuously since 2008 and consists of a set of core questions which are asked of the whole sample plus measurements (for example, anthropometric and, if applicable, blood pressure measurements and analysis of blood and saliva samples) and modules of questions on specific health conditions asked of a proportion of the sample.

Sample design and achieved sample

Since 2008 the SHeS has used a two-stage stratified probability sampling design with datazones selected at the first stage and addresses (delivery points) at the second. The achieved sample for each year since 2008 is presented below:

Year

Child

Adult (main)

Adult (HB boost)

Adult (total)

2008

1,750

5,861

604

6,465

2009

2,607

6,831

700

7,531

2010

1,793

6,770

475

7,245

In 2011 will have a similar sample size to 2010. From 2012-2015 the survey has been designed to produce an achieved sample size of around 4,000 adults and 1,800 children per year.

2. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/crime-and-justice-survey)

The SCJS is a cross sectional survey which asks people about their experiences and perceptions of crime in Scotland. An important role of the SCJS is to provide an alternative and complementary measure of crime to the police recorded crime statistics, which provide statistics on crimes and offences recorded and cleared up by the eight Scottish police forces.

The main aims of the SCJS are to:

- Provide reliable statistics on peoples experience of crime, including services provided to victims of crime

- Assess the varying risk of crime for different groups of people in the population

- Examine trends in the level and nature of crime in Scotland over time

- Collect information about people's experiences of, and attitudes on a range of crime and justice related issues

The 2010/11 survey is the third sweep of the SCJS, with the first being conducted in 2008/09 and the second in 2009/10. The survey involves interviews with around adults (aged 16 or over) who live in private residential addresses in Scotland.

The survey is conducted face-to-face in-home and is administered by specially trained professional interviewers using Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI). The survey also contains a short self-completion section on sensitive topics which respondents answer using Computer Assisted Self Interviewing (CASI).

Sample design

A systematic random selection of private residential addresses across Scotland was produced and allocated in batches to interviewers. Interviewers called at addresses and obtained information on all household members and then selected at random one adult (aged 16 or over) for interview at each address. The sample was designed to be representative of all private residential households across Scotland (with the exception of some of the smaller islands) over the 10 month fieldwork period.

Achieved sample

Year

Achieved Sample

Time Frame

2010/11

13,000

Over 10 months

2009/10

16,000

Over 12 months

2008/9

16,000

Over 12 months

Note that changes to the survey in 2010/11 in comparison with previous years (where the target achieved sample size was 16,000 and interviews spread across 12 months beginning from 1st April rather than 1st June) were a result of a review process in Scottish Government as part the Long Term Survey Strategy for Population Surveys in Scotland 2009 - 2019.

3. Scottish Household Survey (SHS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/)

The survey is designed to provide accurate, up-to-date information about the characteristics, attitudes and behaviour of Scottish households and individuals on a range of issues. The structure of the survey is a continuous cross-sectional survey, each complete sample being covered in the course of two years.

The sample is being drawn from the small user file of the Postcode Address File (PAF). The overall design of the sample is to pursue a wholly random sample where fieldwork conditions allow - namely in areas of high population - and to cluster interviews in the remaining areas (also on a random basis).

To allow sufficient disaggregation of the survey results, an achieved sample of approximately 31,000 households over two years is required. The sample in each quarter is geographically representative so that statistically reliable results for Scotland as a whole are available for each quarter. In addition, the survey design is such that results are available for each of the larger local authorities (those with an achieved sample size of 750 interviews per year) each year, and for all local authorities, regardless of size, every two years.

The Highest Income Householder, or his/her partner/spouse, is interviewed face-to-face about themselves and other members of the household. In addition, a randomly selected adult member of the same household aged 16 or over (who may, by chance, be the same person) is interviewed on other topics. In this way, results from the survey are representative of both Scottish households and adult individuals.

Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) is being used to collect the survey data. This has a number of important advantages over 'pen and paper' interviewing techniques, including faster interviews, automatic edit checks and a quicker flow of information from the survey interviewer to the survey database.

4. Ultimate Sport Cities

The SportBusiness Ultimate Sports Cities Awards are internationally recognised rankings of the world's top sports hosts. These have been held every second year since 2006. Further information is available at: http://www.sportbusiness.com/

5. Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/SHCS)

The SHCS the largest single housing research project in Scotland, and the only national survey to look at the physical condition of Scotland's homes as well as the experiences of householders.

The key objectives of the survey are:

- To monitor the physical quality of Scotland's housing stock at a national level over time.

- To contribute to the understanding of the factors which influence the physical condition of the housing stock.

- To provide a benchmark against which outputs from local house condition surveys can be measured.

- To supplement the system of resource allocation within the Scottish Government.

- To explore relationships between investment and stock condition both at an individual local authority level and at the national level.

- To provide an information resource which can be drawn on for policy development in all areas of housing, such as fuel poverty, which relate to individual households and dwellings and the relationship between them.

The sample was drawn as a stratified, one-stage, unequal probability sample of addresses. Addresses on the PAF were first sorted within local authorities by the Scottish Government's 6-fold rural/urban classification, and within this by postcode, giving implicit stratification by area. Addresses for each local authority were then sampled systematically using a fixed sampling interval from a random start point, both of which were proportional to the size of the LA. Therefore, within each LA, every eligible address had an equal chance of selection, but due to differences in LA size, there were differing probabilities of selection between LAs.

The requirements of the sampling were as follows:

- That it should allow an achieved national sample of at least 3,000 paired interviews across Scotland annually.

- That it should provide at least 240 paired surveys over three years in any one local authority.

- That the sample should cover the whole of Scotland.

- That the sampling should not involve any element of clustering of addresses.

The following sample was achieved:

Year

Achieved Sample

2010

3000

2009

3000

2008

3000

6. Local Environmental Audit Management System (LEAMS)

(http://www.keepscotlandbeautiful.org/what-we-do/public-sector/leams/)

LEAMS (Local Environmental Audit and Management System) is a statutory Performance Indicator of street cleanliness for local authorities in Scotland. During the 2010/2011 financial year, 224 cleanliness surveys were conducted (128 conducted internally, 64 conducted by visiting a partner authority and 32 conducted by Keep Scotland Beautiful). Each survey represented a minimum 2% sample of the local authority area.

The LEAMS process is structured so that all authorities carry out exactly the same monitoring programme to enable full comparison between the results obtained. Training is provided to each local authority before they participate in the LEAMS process. They must be fully briefed on the LEAMS process, the relevant legislation relating to street cleansing and litter, the survey methodology, and how to use the data obtained during the survey. From this training each successful delegate receives a LEAMS passport and certificate. The passport is only valid for two years after which update training is required.

Method

Following the training, each local authority begins bi-monthly surveys within their own area. These surveys cover a minimum random sample of 2% of streets and other relevant transects within their area. The following criteria are assessed during each of the surveys:

- Cleanliness grade; (A, B, C, D).

- Litter bins; count of public use bins and count of overflowing bins)

- Types of litter; smoking, drinks, confectionery and fast food related

- Sources of litter; pedestrians/individuals, business, domestic, construction, animal faeces, other

- Adverse environmental quality indicators; dog fouling, vandalism, graffiti, weeds, detritus, fly-posting

- Any other comments that are thought to be useful for that transect.

Validity

Every six months each local authority carries out a 2% sample survey within another local authority area. This process allows for independent audits to be carried out and allows an exchange of information and best practice to take place. All audits are returned to Keep Scotland Beautiful for analysis, where a full statistical summary sheet is produced and sent back to the local authority.

In addition, an annual validation survey is also carried out by Keep Scotland Beautiful, also assessing a 2% sample survey within each of the local authority areas. This provides the external, independent evaluation recommended under Best Value. Keep Scotland Beautiful also facilitates LEAMS forum meetings as necessary to discuss the development of the LEAMS process, compare results and share best practice. Update training is provided on an annual basis to ensure that those involved in the LEAMS process are surveying to the same standard.

7. SEPA: Waste Data Digest

(http://www.sepa.org.uk/waste/waste_data/lacw/lacmw.aspx)

SEPA has published an annual Waste Data Digest (the digest) since 2001. It deals with data collected by, or on behalf of, SEPA on controlled waste in Scotland.

The digest covers waste arising, recovery and disposal, and includes data on municipal wastes, as well as on commercial and industrial wastes. The data is collected by Local Authorities and is divided in two parts:

- Waste Data Digest: Key facts and trends - tables, graphs and text dealing with high-level facts and trends available.

- Waste Data Digest: Datatables - Excel tables presenting detailed data on Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste (LACMW) and commercial and industrial wastes.

Definition of Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste
(LACMW)

Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste (LACMW) is household waste and similar business waste that is collected by or on behalf of Scottish local authorities. It includes all wastes under Chapter code 20 and some waste under Chapter codes 15 and 19 of the EWC (2002) list of wastes. This is the definition used for the Landfill Allowance Scheme Biodegradable Municipal Waste (BMW) landfill allocations.

Definition of municipal waste

Municipal waste is waste generated by household, plus commercial and industrial waste similar in nature and composition to that generated by households. It includes all wastes under chapter codes 20 and some waste under chapter codes 15 and 19 of the EWC (2002) list of wastes. This is the definition used by Scotland and the UK for reporting against EU landfill diversion targets.

8. Glasgow Household Survey

(http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/YourCouncil/CustomerInvolvement/Corporate/GlasgowHouseholdSurvey/)

The Glasgow Household Survey is currently undertaken for Glasgow City Council by Ipsos Mori.

Methodology

A representative quota sample of around 1,000 Glasgow residents (aged 16 and over) are interview at two points (Spring and Autumn) on an annual basis. The sample is stratified by Community Planning Areas (CPA) - with CPAs defined by postcode - and at the area level. Ten sampling points were selected within each of the ten CPAs.

All interviews were conducted face-to-face in residents' homes using Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI). The data have been weighted by age and gender, using ONS mid year estimates, and by Community Planning Area.

Example topics include:

- Usage and Satisfaction with Council Services

- Community Engagement / Citizenship

- Anti-Social Behaviour

- CCTV

- Visiting the City Centre

- Clean Glasgow Campaign

- Land and the Environment

- Volunteering

- Child Protection

- Commonwealth Games

9. Schools leavers destination survey (SLDS)

Information on the destination of leavers from publicly funded schools is collected by Skills Development Scotland (SDS). SDS collected information on where each young person, they had identified as being a school leaver, was during September immediately after leaving school (initial destination) and the following March (follow-up destination).

The initial destinations data provide information on the outcomes for young people approximately three months after leaving school while the follow up survey provides information on the outcomes of young people approximately nine months after leaving school. These collections should be seen as complementary to one another but it should be noted that various factors may affect the results at different time periods.

A school leaver is classed as a young person of school leaving age who left school during or at the end of the school year, where the school year is taken to run from 1 August to 31 July. Age was calculated as of 30 th June in the year they are leaving school.

Positive destinations

All destinations are based on self-reporting by school leavers and positive destinations includes higher education, further education, training, voluntary work and employment

10. Nations Brands Index (NBI)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/12/14124930/0)

Conducted annually with GfK Roper beginning in 2008, the Anholt-GfK Roper NBI examines the image of 50 nations. Each year, approximately 20,000 adults aged 18 and up are interviewed in 20 core panel nations. The Anholt-GfK Roper Nation Brands Index looks at a country's image by examining six dimensions of national competence all of which are treated equally with no weighting. This gives an overall sense of a country's reputation as a whole. The six dimensions are:

- Exports.

- Governance

- Culture

- People

- Tourism

- Immigration and Investment.

The NBISM score is an average of the scores from the six dimensions mentioned above. There are between 3 and 5 ratings questions for each of the dimensions. Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 7 with 7 being the highest and best, 1 being the lowest and worst, and 4 being the middle position which is neither positive nor negative. Each hexagon point also has a word choice question which gives some depth to how those surveyed perceive a nation's image.

The 2010 NBISM survey was conducted in 20 major developed and developing countries that play important and diverse roles in international relations, trade and the flow of business, cultural, and tourism activities. Given the increasing global role played by developing countries, the survey strives to represent regional balance as well as the balance between high-income and middle-income countries. The core 20 panel countries are:

- Western Europe/North America: U.S., Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden

- Central and Eastern Europe: Russia, Poland, Turkey

- Asia-Pacific: Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia

- Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico

- Middle East/Africa: Egypt, South Africa

For 2010 NBI, 20,261 interviews have been conducted with approximately 1,015 interviews per country for the 2010 NBISM survey between July 7th and August 4th, 2010. Adults aged 18 or over who are online are interviewed in each country. Using the most up-to-date online population parameters, the achieved sample in each country has been weighted to reflect key demographic characteristics such as age, gender, and education of the 2010 online population in that country. Additionally, in the United States, United Kingdom, South Africa, India and Brazil, race/ethnicity has been used for sample balancing. The report reflects the views and opinions of online populations in these 20 countries; citizens who are connected to the world.

The NBISM measures the image of 50 nations. In each panel nation except Egypt, the list of 50 nations is randomly assigned to panellists, each of whom rates 25 nations, resulting in each nation getting approximately 500 ratings per panel country. In Egypt, where panellists are not as familiar and experienced with online surveys, survey length was reduced, resulting in each nation getting approximately 250 ratings. The weighting for survey panellists from each country and their thoughts on each of the 6 dimensions are treated equally.

When deciding which nations should be on the index, GfK Roper explain that the list of 50 nations is based on the political and economic importance of the nations in global geopolitics and the flow of trade, businesses, people, and tourism activities. Regional representation and, to some extent, the diversity of political and economic systems are taken into consideration to make the study truly global. NBISM subscription members' interests, like Scotland's, are also reflected in the selection of the countries.

The list of 50 nations is as follows, listed by region:

- North America: U.S., Canada

- Western Europe: UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Scotland, Sweden, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, Switzerland, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg*, Flanders*

- Central/Eastern Europe: Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Romania, Slovakia*, Estonia**, Lithuania**

- Asia Pacific: Japan, South Korea, China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand

- Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Cuba, Colombia, Ecuador**

- Middle East/Africa: United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Angola, Kenya

* Nations new to the NBI 2010
** Nations included in 2009 but not included in 2010

The NBISM did run between 2005 and 2007 on a quarterly basis and this was managed through another contractor. Since going to GfK Roper in 2008 and changing to an annual format, the index now has expanded coverage - regarding nations measured, and in the number of questions asked - and uses a more stringent sample distribution control. This means that there can be no trend comparisons made to pre-2008 data. Conscious efforts were made to keep the 2010 NBISM methodology comparable to the 2009 NBISM, including core questionnaire content, sample design, sampling techniques, and fieldwork procedures.

11. Business Register Employment Survey (BRES)

(http://bit.ly/bres2008)

The Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) went live in August 2009 and has replaced and integrated two ONS business surveys:

- Annual Business Inquiry part 1 (ABI/1) - collected employees data at the business (Reporting Unit) level to produce annual employment estimates.

- Business Register Survey (BRS) - collected information on the structure of an enterprise at the reporting unit level and employees data at the site (local unit) level to maintain the sampling frame for business surveys, which is known as the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR).

BRES is a UK sample survey of approximately 80,000 businesses (covering approximately 500,000 local units), and collects information at the business (reporting unit) and site (local unit) level. BRES is a dual purpose survey. It is responsible for providing the ONS's annual national and regional employment estimates, and also maintaining the IDBR.

Sample design

Stratification by SIC division and using various criteria for employment size bands is used to help to calculate total employees while maintaining the best coverage properties

Estimation methodology

The BRES is used to estimate employment at the overall level as well as for regional and industrial breakdowns. Given the sample size, it is not possible to produce accurate employment estimates by detailed regional and industrial breakdowns using standard business survey estimation techniques. To solve this, BRES uses a specific methodology that involves calibrating to IDBR employment totals at both regional and industrial level separately. This increases the effective sample size and the resulting estimates are more accurate.

Outlier treatment, which reduces the potential impact of extreme responses on the overall estimates, has also been improved within BRES, replacing a method called 'post-stratification' with 'Winsorisation', which was found to produce better results.

12. Scottish Annual Business Statistics (SABS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS/Methodology)

Scottish Annual Business Statistics (SABS) is based on data from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) (formerly Annual Business Inquiry (ABI)) conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The statistics have been produced under partnership procedures agreed between ONS and the Scottish Government (SG). These have resulted in an improvement in the quality of the underlying data and consistency in the figures used by ONS and SG.

Sample Design

The ABS sample is designed as a stratified random sample of around 70,000 businesses from the IDBR. The inquiry population or universe is stratified by Standard Industrial Classification, employment, and country using the information from the IDBR. The sampling scheme is designed to give best estimates of the population totals for a given sample size and involves selecting all the largest businesses with a progressively reducing fraction of smaller businesses. This method ensures the sample size is kept to a minimum.

The inquiry results are grossed up to the register population, so that they relate to all active UK businesses on the IDBR for the sectors covered.

Scottish sample

Since 1998, the Scottish Government has funded an enhanced ABS sample in Scotland, to improve the quality of Scottish figures. In 2009, around 2,600 extra firms in Scotland were sampled as a result of this "boost", giving a total sample size in Scotland of around 8,100 firms.

Changes to sample in 2008

In 2008 and 2009, the sampling stratification and resultant estimation was carried out on a SIC 2007 basis.

Please note that, for the 2008 sample, ONS undertook a complete sample re-allocation (using the Neyman methodology) to ensure that sufficient account of the variability within the micro businesses was reflected in the sample.

Due to the complexity of the ABS sample structure ONS had erred away from regularly re-allocating the sample. Hence, for a number of years ONS were left in the position of having the basis of the original sample produced in 1998 but with a number of manual tweaks. The earlier sample design did not adequately take account of the greater variability of smaller businesses, which should have led to a larger proportion of smaller businesses than was actually selected over that period. Consequently, the share of smaller businesses in 2007 and earlier was smaller than it should have been.

One feature of the 2008 and 2009 selections is the change in the proportion of businesses of employment size 0 -9 in the sample. The table at link below shows a significant increase in businesses sampled in employment size 0-9 for Scotland - 43% in the 2007 sample to 58% in 2008 and 2009. (Sampling framework Table for 2007-2009)

The change in the sample design, due to the SIC 2007 and the sample re-allocation, from 2008 onwards means that the results for 2008 onwards are not strictly comparable with earlier years data.

13. Scottish Corporate Sector Statistics (SCSS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate/Methodology)

Scottish Corporate Sector Statistics provides information about the number of enterprises operating in Scotland, broken down by various groupings including industry, company size, local authority area, and country of ownership. The publication includes all enterprises that operate in Scotland regardless of where the enterprise is based. This allows a more comprehensive understanding of the Scottish business environment than is possible via other business data sources which only classify enterprises as Scottish if they have their UK base in Scotland.

Overview of Methodology and Sources

The estimates have been constructed using data from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR), the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the Family Resources Survey (FRS) and Self Assessment (SA) data. The IDBR provides the number of enterprises registered for VAT and/or PAYE in Scotland. However there is a substantial number of very small enterprises which have no employees and are therefore not included on the IDBR. A modelling procedure that combines data from the IDBR with estimates derived from the LFS, FRS and SA data is used to estimate the number of unregistered enterprises. The principles of the model were developed by economic consultants working with the Department of Trade and Industry and Eurostat.

14. Vacant and Derelict Land Statistics

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Planning/Publications)

The Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey (SVDLS) is an annual survey undertaken to establish the extent and state of vacant and derelict land in Scotland and the amount of land that has been reclaimed since the previous survey. Since 2009, all local authorities have provided data each year.

Definitions

The following definitions are used by local authorities when they undertaking the survey:

- Vacant land is land which is unused for the purposes for which it is held and is viewed as an appropriate site for development. This land must either have had prior development on it or preparatory work has taken place in anticipation of future development. The main part of this bulletin covers vacant land (referred to as 'urban vacant') that is located within settlements of over 2,000 in population (as defined in council local plans, see Annex Section A.5). Some local authorities have also surveyed for vacant land within settlements of under 2,000 in population.

- Derelict land (and buildings) is land which has been so damaged by development, that it is incapable of development for beneficial use without rehabilitation. In addition the land must currently not be used for the purpose for which it is held or a use acceptable in the local plan. Land also qualifies as derelict if it has an unremedied previous use which could constrain future development. For urban vacant and derelict land, site records must be at least 0.1 hectares in size to be included.

How is land identified for the survey?

Due to the wide variations between the authorities in terms of size, geography, population and site locations across Scotland there is not a single methodology, but the following is a guide to methods that are used by Local Authorities, depending on local factors, to undertake the survey :

- Survey all sites that were included in the previous year's survey if possible, also noting any new sites in the vicinity.

- Take note of any sites you see incidentally while travelling.

- Visit sites that have been identified in other ways, such as via planning systems, or as recommended by planning officers.

Dependent on local factors, other ways land can be discovered include:

- Via planning applications, either directly with regular surveys, or as pointed out by planning officers.

- Information from Housing Land Audits/Employment Land Audits.

- Requests for information from other departments/organisations: Colleagues from e.g. regeneration departments can provide further knowledge, and occasionally sources such as the Scottish Property Network or the Corporate Address Gazetteer may prove useful.

- Building Control Database.

- Committee Reports.

- News articles.

- GIS.

- Community Councils.

How is land removed from the survey?

A site visit is key to categorising what is happening on a site, although planning applications can be a good indicator that there may be changes to categorisation. A site visit would cover whether a site is partially or fully reused, whether it is changing from derelict to vacant or maybe naturalising, or if building is underway.

Overall, although the steps above can be followed closely, the final decision is not always clear-cut as no two sites are the same; they are often in a state of transition when a site is partially in use or scheduled for demolition, clearance or reuse. The judgement and experience of those undertaking the survey are important.

Further guidance is provided to local authorities on method at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Planning/SVDLSGuidanceBasic#top

on the survey should be conducted within Local Authorities.

15. Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS)

(http://www.visitscotland.org/research_and_statistics/tourismstatistics/national_statistics/accommodation_occupancy.aspx)

The survey looks at occupancy five main accommodation sectors: hotels, guest houses and bed and breakfasts, self catering accommodation, camping and caravan parks and hostels.

Each month a sample of accommodation were asked to provide information on:

- Numbers of new arrivals.

- Total number of guests.

- Number of rooms occupied.

- Number of additional bed and rooms used.

Participation in the survey is entirely voluntary and as a result the response to the survey varied between areas. In order to compensate for the differing levels of response, the data was weighted according to the number of bed-spaces in each VisitScotland region (matching the boundaries of the former Area Tourist Boards) and by establishment size.

16. Cushman and Wakefield European Cities Monitor

http://www.europeancitiesmonitor.eu/

Cushman & Wakefield has conducted a survey on Europe's major business cities since 1990.
Each year the survey provides an overview of the perceptions that corporate occupiers have about cities across Europe and their relative attractiveness. The underlying data is researched independently for C&W by TNS BMRB and 500 senior executives from leading European companies give their views on Europe's leading business cities. These views are divided into sixteen key questions ranging from which cities respondents think are the "best cities to locate a business today" through to "best city in terms of the quality of life of employees".

17. Go-Well

(http://www.gowellonline.com/)

GoWell is a research and learning programme that aims to investigate the impact of investment in housing, regeneration and neighbourhood renewal on the health and wellbeing of individuals, families and communities over a ten-year period. The programme aims to establish the nature and extent of these impacts, to learn about the relative effectiveness of different approaches, and to inform policy and practice in Scotland and beyond.

The programme is divided into a number of different but inter-connecting research and learning components or themes,

- Community health and wellbeing survey and tracer study

- Governance, participation and empowerment (GPE)

- Understanding the wider context

- Community-based or nested studies

- Economic evaluation

The Community health and wellbeing survey involves face-to-face interviews with over 6,000 local residents from across our 15 study areas. It will be repeated four times over our planned ten-year programme. The first survey was completed in August 2006, the second in August 2008, with further surveys in 2010 and 2012. There will be a tracking study of respondents who move house between surveys and who will be followed up at their new addresses for the duration of the study. This component also involves a number of focus groups following each survey to provide more detailed qualitative evidence on various issues or aspects of the survey.

More information on other aspects of the survey can be found: http://www.gowellonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=120&Itemid=193

18. Youth Physical Activity Questionnaire (YPAQ)

(http://www.mrc.ac.uk/index.htm)

The MRC have developed and validated a number of self-report instruments specifically developed for use in children, adolescents and adults. Among these is the historical physical activity questionnaire (HISPAQ) which was developed to assess physical activity in the past, the parental assisted Children Physical Activity Questionnaire (CPAQ) for use in young children, the Youth Physical Activity Questionnaire (YPAQ) and the Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire (RPAQ). This portfolio of questionnaires is part of the MRC exposure measurements toolkit.

19. Glasgow Health and Well Being Survey (GHWBS)

(http://www.phru.net/rande/Web%20Pages/Health%20and%20Wellbeing.aspx)

The health and wellbeing survey was formed around core questions which have remained the same and allow the monitoring of trends over time. However, the survey has also been adapted over time to take into account emerging health and wellbeing issues and new geographies.

The survey provides a snapshot in time of the views and experience of the resident adult population. Whilst we cannot attribute causal relationships between the findings and the changing policy context we can explore our findings alongside wider changes in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC).

The objectives of the study are:

- to continue to monitor the core health indicators

- to determine whether the changes found in the first two follow-ups were the beginning of a trend in the NHSGG area

- to compare attitudes and behaviour of those living in the bottom 15% SIMD areas and other areas and address whether changes in attitudes and behaviour apply across the board or just in the most deprived/other areas, thereby tracking progress towards reducing health inequalities

- to form a baseline of health and wellbeing measures for NHSGGC

- to provide intelligence for health improvement policy, programmes and information to enhance performance management.

The study involves face-to-face in home interviews with adults (aged 16 or over) within Glasgow.

20. Scottish Recreation Survey

(http://www.snh.gov.uk/publications-data-and-research/publications/search-the-catalogue/publication-detail/?id=1640)

The Scottish Recreation Survey (ScRS) is a continuous monitoring study, which Scottish Natural Heritage commissioned in 2003 with support from Forestry Commission Scotland. It delivers regular data on:

- the proportion of adults visiting the outdoors for leisure and recreation

- the level of participation in walking and other recreational activities

- awareness and understanding of the Scottish Outdoor Access Code.

The survey comprises a series of questions inserted each month into the Scottish Opinion Survey, a consumer omnibus run by TNS. The questions are asked of a representative sample of approximately 1,000 Scottish adults aged 16 and over each month, giving an annual sample size of around 12,000. Interviews are conducted in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing).

21. Mercer

A) Quality of Living Index

(http://www.mercer.com/articles/quality-of-living-definition-1436405)

Quality of living survey uses an objective system measures the quality of life for expatriates based on 39 criteria groups into 10 key categories. Weightings are then applied to reflect its importance for overall quality of living. Mercer then assess the degree to which expatriates enjoy a standard of living in each host location, factoring in the interaction of political, socio-economic and environmental factors in the host locations.

Mercer use New York as the their base city and all other cities are ranked in relation to it. The categories and criteria that Mercer uses to quantify each city can be found on their website.

B) Mercer's Personal Safety Ranking

The 2011 ranking is based on measures of internal stability, crime levels, law enforcement effectiveness and host country international relations. Cities are compared, scored and then ranked again these measures.

22. Sportsbusiness [part of SGB companies limited] (SB)

(http://www.sportbusiness.com/awards/usc/2010)

The Ultimate Sports City awards are the result of extensive independent research into the business of hosting major sports events. More information on the research and the ranking that underlies the awards can be found at http://www.sportbusiness.com/awards/usc/2010). The full Ultimate Sports Cities report includes expert analysis, case-studies and ultimately, rankings of the very best sports hosts from around the world.

23. International Passenger Survey

(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/travel-and-transport-methodology/international-passenger-survey/index.html)

Survey data is collected on the International Passenger Survey via face to face interviews with passengers passing through ports and on routes into and out of the UK. The IPS methodology involves conducting between 700,000 and 800,000 interviews a year, of which over 250,000 are used to produce estimates of Overseas Travel and Tourism patterns.

A multi stage sampling design is employed which involves sampling a port or route on a given day and within a given period of the day (this is referred to as a 'shift'); and within the shift certain passengers passing an interview line are systematically chosen for interview at fixed intervals from a random start.

Further information on sampling design and weighting can be found at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/travel-and-transport-methodology/international-passenger-survey/index.html.

24. United Kingdom Traveller Survey/ Great Britain Traveller Survey

(http://www.visitscotland.org/research_and_statistics/tourismstatistics/national_statistics/uk_statistics.aspx)

Data on domestic overnight tourism visits and expenditure to Scotland have been obtained from the UK Tourism Survey (UKTS) for each year up to and including 2010. In 2011, the Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) replaced the UKTS and data on overnight visits and expenditure from Northern Ireland are not collected from this survey. This means that results from the UKTS and GBTS are NOT comparable. Both the UKTS and the GBTS are run by VisitBritain. Scotland level results from the UKTS and GBTS can be found on the VisitScotland website (see above).

Data on domestic overnight tourism visits and expenditure Glasgow City local authority are also obtained from the UKTS/GBTS and these are published as part of the VisitScotland website Regional Statistics document: "Tourism in Western Scotland" http://www.visitscotland.org/research_and_statistics/regions/western_scotland.aspx

25. Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC)

(www.hbsc.org)

HBSC is a cross-national study involving a multi-disciplinary network of researchers from 43 countries & regions in Europe and North America.

The Scottish component of the HBSC aims to gain new insight into, and increase understanding of adolescent health behaviours, health and lifestyles in their social context.

HBSC was initiated in 1982 by researchers from 3 countries (Finland, Norway and England) and shortly afterwards the project was adopted by the World Health Organisation as a WHO collaborative study. The first cross-national survey was conducted in 1983/84 and since then data collection has been carried out every four years using a common research protocol.

The HBSC survey instrument is a standard questionnaire developed by the international network of researchers and used by all participating countries. The target age groups are 11, 13 and 15 year olds with a sample of approximately 1500 from each age group in all participating countries. The data collected in each country is compiled into an international data file, which is managed by the Norwegian Social Science Data Services (NSD) at the University of Bergen in Norway under the guidance of the study's Data Bank Manager.

Each survey questionnaire contains a core set of questions looking at the following:

- Background factors: demographics, social background (family structure, socio-economic status), maturation

- Individual and social resources: body image, family support, peers, school environment

- Health behaviours: physical activity, eating and dieting, smoking, alcohol use, cannabis use, sexual behaviour, violence and bullying, injuries

- Health outcomes: symptoms, life satisfaction, self-reported health, Body Mass Index

The international standard questionnaire enables the collection of common data across all participating countries and thus enables the quantification of patterns of key health behaviours, health indicators and contextual variables. These data allow cross-national comparisons to be made and, with successive surveys, trend data is gathered and may be examined at both the national and cross-national level. As well as being a research and monitoring study, HBSC also aims to inform and have impact on health promotion and health education policy, programmes and practice aimed at young people at both national and international levels.

26. Understanding Society (formally known as the UKHLS)

http://www.understandingsociety.org.uk/design/features/default.aspx

Understanding Society is a longitudinal study based on a household panel design. It collects a wide range of information on a great number of topics over time. Topics include:

- Standard of living measures (income, consumption, material deprivation, expenditure, financial well-being)

- Family, social networks and interactions, local contexts, social support, technology and social contacts

- Attitudes and behaviours related to environmental issues (energy, transport, air quality, global warming etc)

- Illicit and risky behaviour (crime, drug use, anti-social behaviour etc)

- Lifestyle, social, political, religious and other participation, identity and related practices, dimensions of life satisfaction/happiness

- Psychological attributes, cognitive abilities and behaviour

- Preferences, beliefs, attitudes and expectations

- Health outcomes and health related behaviour

- Education, human capital and work

- Initial conditions, life history

Sample

It is an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of people living in around 40,000 households. Given the large sample size and survey fieldwork capacity constraints, data collection takes place over a two year period for each wave of the survey. The sample is randomly allocated to monthly samples across this period. While each wave of the survey takes two years to complete, the waves overlap so that sample members are interviewed annually. There are four elements to the sample:

- General population sample (28,000 - 29,000 households)

- Innovation Panel sample (1,500 households)

- Ethnic minority boost sample (1,000 adult individuals in each of five main ethnic minority groups)

- British Household Panel Study sample (8,400 households)

27. Input-Output

Input-Output framework of the European System of Accounts (ESA 1995) consists of three types of tables: Supply Tables, Use Tables and Symmetric Input-Output Tables. The Tables provide a complete picture of the flows of goods and services (products) in the economy for a given year. They detail the relationship between producers and consumers and the interdependencies of industries. The Supply and Use Tables are the basic building blocks; all other Input-Output analyses are derived from them. Symmetric Tables (a.k.a. the Analytical Tables) represent the modelling aspect of the Input-Output framework.

28. Labour Force Survey (LFS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/DatasetsLFS)

A continuous household survey conducted in England, Scotland and Wales that provides information on the labour market, including employment, unemployment and economic activity rates.

29. Annual Population Survey (APS)

(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/DatasetsLFS)

The Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the English, Welsh and Scottish Labour Force Survey boosts. The boosts increase the sample size which means the APS can provide more robust labour market estimates for local areas compared to the main LFS. Thus the APS is the primary source for information on local labour markets providing headline estimates on employment, unemployment and economic activity.

Glossary

We provide a short definition of key organisations referred to within the report, with a link to their website where appropriate.

Commonwealth Games Scotland

(http://www.cgcs.org.uk/)

Commonwealth Games Scotland is the lead body for Commonwealth Sport in Scotland and is responsible for selecting, preparing and managing Scotland's team at the Commonwealth Games and Commonwealth Youth Games.

Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee (OC)

(http://www.glasgow2014.com)

Glasgow 2014 Ltd is the official name for the Organising Committee, the company set up to deliver the XX Commonwealth Games.

Clyde Gateway Urban Regeneration Company (URC)

(http://www.clydegateway.com/)

URC is a specially created urban regeneration company covering 840 hectares across the east end of Glasgow, including Bridgeton and Dalmarnock and Rutherglen and Shawfield in South Lanarkshire.

Glasgow Community Planning Partners

(http://www.glasgowcpp.org.uk/)

The Glasgow Community Planning parts are the members of the Glasgow Community Planning Partnership (CPP) which was formed in February 2004 to take forward the city's approach to Community Planning. The Partnership brings key public, private, community and voluntary representatives together with the aim of delivering better, more joined-up public services in the city. An important part of the Partnership's work is to ensure that the targeted regeneration of Glasgow continues to improve the quality of life for citizens and visitors.

ILO unemployment

International Labour Organization (a specialised agency of the United Nations) sponsored statistical definition of unemployment - adopted by the Thirteenth International Conference of Labour Statisticians (October 1982).

SDS - Skills Development Scotland

(http://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/)

SDS is Scotland's skills body, which is committed to better equipping people for rewarding careers and businesses for growth.

DWP - Department of Work and Pensions

(http://www.dwp.gov.uk/)

The Department for Work and Pensions is responsible for welfare and pension policy and is a key player in tackling child poverty. It is the biggest public service delivery department in the UK and serves over 20 million customers. DWP supports the government's commitment to being transparent about public finances.

CreativeScotland

(http://www.creativescotland.com/)

Creative Scotland is the national leader for Scotland's arts, screen and creative industries. It's our job to help Scotland's creativity shine at home and abroad.

BussinessClub Scotland

(www.businessclubscotland.co.uk/)

BusinessClub Scotland is an initiative designed to help Scotland's business organisations capitalise on the opportunities generated by major events in Scotland both in the run up to the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and beyond. The Club facilitates contract opportunities, business networking and business engagement around major sporting and cultural events in Scotland. It works to ensure that Scottish companies and business organisations are supported, engaged and business-ready to maximise contract opportunities and win business.

SCDI - Scottish Council for Development and Industry

(http://www.scdi.org.uk/)

The Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI) is an independent membership network, which aims to strengthen Scotland's competitiveness by influencing Government policies to encourage sustainable economic prosperity. It is a broad-based economic development organisation, with membership drawn from Scottish business, trades unions, public agencies, educational institutions, local authorities, and the voluntary sector.

Scottish Chamber of Commerce

(http://www.scottishchambers.org.uk/)

The Scottish Chamber of Commerce is the umbrella organisation for 20 local Chambers of Commerce - representing more than 50 percent of private sector jobs in Scotland.

Institute of Directors

(http://www.iod.com/)

The Institute of Directors is the UK's longest running organisation for professional leaders, they are dedicated to supporting our 38,000 members, encouraging entrepreneurial activity and promoting responsible business practice for the benefit of the business community and society as a whole.

Federation of Small Business

(http://www.fsb.org.uk/ )

The Federation of Small Businesses is the UK's largest campaigning pressure group promoting and protecting the interests of the self-employed and owners of small firms. Formed in 1974, it now has 200,000 members across 33 regions and 194 branches.

EventScotland

(http://www.eventscotland.org/)

Established in 2003, EventScotland works to generate, bid for, attract and sustain events which will drive tourism and create international profile for Scotland. EventScotland is dedicated to leading Scotland's events industry and strengthening the nation's position as a world class events destination.

Scottish Enterprise

(http://www.scottish-enterprise.com/)

Scottish Enterprise identifies and exploits opportunities for economic growth by supporting Scottish companies to compete, helping to build globally competitive sectors, attracting new investment and creating a world-class business environment

VisitScotland

(http://www.visitscotland.com/)

Working closely with private businesses, public agencies and local authorities, we work to ensure that our visitors experience the very best of Scotland and that the country makes the most of its outstanding tourism assets and realises its potential.

Glasgow City Marketing Bureau

(http://www.seeglasgow.com/about-us/)

Glasgow City Marketing Bureau (GCMB) is the official destination marketing organisation for the city of Glasgow. As a public/private organisation established by Glasgow City Council in 2005, Glasgow City Marketing Bureau's role is to communicate Glasgow's reputation as a world-class city in which to live, work, study, invest and visit.

International Cultural Summit

(http://www.eics2012.com/)

The first International Culture Summit was held in Edinburgh in August 2012. The Summit was a collaboration between the Scottish Government, the UK Government, the British Council and the Edinburgh International Festival and was hosted at the Scottish Parliament. The Summit theme was 'Culture as an International Dialogue' and the programme was devised around three strategic strands: the role of the arts and culture in deepening and broadening our understanding of the complex relationships between cultures and nations; Sustaining private and public support for culture; Future skills for the creative industries and the role of technology.

Scottish Disability Sports

(http://www.scottishdisabilitysport.com/sds/index.cfm/about/history)

Scottish Disability Sport (formerly the Scottish Sports Association for Disabled People [SSAD]) was formed in 1962 to encourage the development of sport and physical recreation for disabled people throughout Scotland.

Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF)

(http://www.thecgf.com/)

The CGF is the organisation that is responsible for the direction and control of the Commonwealth Games.

Annex 6: Glasgow East End

Map 4

Footnotes

1. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/purposestratobjs

2. Glasgow 2014 Legacy Board. Progress report on legacy framework

3. sportscotland, NHS Health Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, Creative Scotland, Education Scotland, VisitScotland, EventScotland, Young Scot, Youth Sports Trust, Forestry Commission, CoSLA and local authorities outside Glasgow

4. Owe, E. Research Findings Legacy Lessons from Past Large-scale Sporting Events: Review of the Evidence

5. (IDOX, ProQuest Collections and EBSCOhost databases

6. Mayne, J. (2008) Contribution Analysis: An approach to exploring cause and effect, ILAC methodological brief, available at http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.cgiar-ilac.org/files/publications/briefs/ILAC_Brief16_Contribution_Analysis.pdf&sa=U&ei=2jiRUMCWB8X80QX1h4H4Ag&ved=0CB0QFjAE&usg=AFQjCNGpniJ5x_R3ywZuGJoIKZvkhiZn7Q

7. Clark G et al (2010) Local Development Benefits from Staging Global Events: Achieving the Local Development Legacy from 2012, OECD

8. Clark G et al (2010) Local Development Benefits from Staging Global Events: Achieving the Local Development Legacy from 2012, OECD.

9. http://www.gowellonline.com/

10. http://www.gowellonline.com/

11. The ORieL study led by Professor Steve Cummins at Queen Mary, University of London.

12. Go Well Advisory group includes Scottish Government, Clyde Gateway, Glasgow City Council, sportscotland, NHS Health Scotland, Education Scotland, Professor Nanette Mutrie, Professor Steve Cummins and the GoWell Team

13. The Knowledge Hub is the Local Government Association's professional social network which helps people in local and central government connect and share online in a secure environment.

14. State of the Economy. Chief Economist, July 2012 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Economy/state-economy

15. Kasimait, E.,2003. Economic aspects and the Summer Olympics: a review of related research. International Journal of Tourism Research, 5, pp. 433-444.

16. McCartney, et al., 2010a. The health and socioeconomic impacts of major multi-sport events: systematic review (1978-2008), BMJ, 340:c2369

17. Burgan, B. and Mules, T., 1992. Economic impact of sporting events. Annals of Tourism Research, 19, pp.700-710.

18. Spilling, O. R., 1996. Mega-event as strategy for regional development: the case of the 1994 Lillehammer Winter Olympics. Entrepreneurship andRegional Development, 8 (4) pp. 321-343.

19. Gratton, C., Shibli, S., and Coleman., R. 2005. Sport and Economic Regeneration in Cities. Urban Studies42, pp. 985 -999.

20. Smith, A. and Fox, T., 2007. From 'event-led' to 'event themed' regeneration: the 2002 Commonwealth games Legacy Programme. Urban Studies, 44 (5/6) pp. 1125-1143.

21. Nichols, G. and Ralston, R., 2012. Lessons from the volunteering legacy of the 2002 Commonwealth games. Urban Studies, 49 (1) pp. 169-184.

22. Personal Best Evaluation

23. Fourie, J. and Santana-Gallego, M., 2011. The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals. Tourism Management, 32 (6), pp. 1364 -1370.

24. Commonwealth Games were not included in their analysis.

25. Spilling, O. R., 1996. Mega-event as strategy for regional development: the case of the 1994 Lillehammer Winter Olympics. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, 8 (4) pp. 321-343.

26. Lochhead, H., 2005. A new vision for Sydney Olympic Park. Urban Design International, 10 (3/4) pp. 215-222.;

27. Audit Scotland (2012) Progress report on planning for the delivery of the XXth Commonwealth Games 2014 http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/docs/central/2012/nr_120322_commonwealth_games_km.rtf&sa=U&ei=hTiRUJK3POKj0QWD2YCIDQ&ved=0CBUQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNGcOnQGpwcWUdzkdUrmXmwdG--Q1g

28. Glasgow City Council, Report by Director of Development and Regeneration Services and Council 2014 Team, August 2012

29. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubGDP

30. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/SNAP

31. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS

32. There are differences between the ABS approximate measure of GVA and the other GVA measures published for Scotland. It is important to emphasise that ABS approximate GVA does not cover the whole economy and that it does not include all the National Accounting adjustments that reconcile the ABS data with other data sources.

33. Self-employed people not registered for VAT/PAYE, along with HM Forces and government supported trainees, are excluded.

34. Note that the 2011 BRES employment estimates, in the table, are not strictly comparable with the data for 2010 and 2009. This is due to instances of double counting of directors of limited companies in the 2009 and 2010 results - directors of limited companies may have been included, by those completing the BRES questionnaire, in both the employees' and the working owners' categories. This anomaly does not exist for the 2011 results due to a change in the treatment of working owners in the 2011 BRES questionnaire. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will be publishing, at the regional and sub-regional level, an adjusted version of the 2010 results later in 2012, which will be comparable with the 2011 estimates. The 2010 adjusted estimates, that will be comparable to the 2011 estimates, will be lower than the 2010 estimates currently published. So where there is an increase between the 2010 data and the 2011 data, in the table, we can be sure that this is indeed an increase - but we will not know the magnitude of the increase until the 2010 adjusted BRES data are published later in 2012.

35. Source: VisitScotland

36. Source: International Passenger Survey, VisitBritain website

37. Source: VisitScotland

38. Source: International Passenger Survey, Visit Britain website

39. Lee et al The Lancet, Volume 380, Issue 9838, Pages 219 - 229, 21 July 2012

40. McCartney, et al., 2010b. A health impact assessment of the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Public Health, 124(8-2), pp. 444-451.

41. http://www.london.nhs.uk/publications/independent-publications/independent-reports/a-systematic-review-of-the-evidence-base-for-developing-a-phsyical-activity-and-health-legacy-from-the-london-2012-olympic-and-paralympic-games

42. Lyle (2009) Sporting success, role models and participation: a policy related review, sportscotland

43. Using slightly different definition - see Chapter 6 of 2008 SHeS annual report for details.

44. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/scottish-health-survey/Publications/healthboard2011

45. J Thompson Coon et al "Does participating in physical activity in outdoor natural environments have a greater effect on physical and mental wellbeing than physical activity indoors? A systematic review" J Epidemiol Community Health 2011;65:A38 doi:10.1136/jech.2011.143586.85,

46. R Mitchell "Is physical activity in natural environments better for mental health than physical activity in other environments?" http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.04.012,

47. From Scotland performs http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms/indicator/culture

48. See http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/thecurriculum/whatiscurriculumforexcellence/index.asp for more information

49. Insight Economics. 2006. Triple Bottom Line Assessment of the XVIII Commonwealth Games. Insight Economics Pty Ltd.

50. Weed et al., 2009. A Systematic Review of the Evidence Base for Developing a Physical Activity and Health Legacy from the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. London: Department of Health.

51. Waitt, G., 2003. Social Impacts of the Sydney Olympics. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(1), pp. 194-215; Ohmann, S., Jones, I. and Wikes, K., 2006. The Perceived Social Impacts of the 2006 Football World Cup on Munich Residents. Journal of Sport & Tourism, 11(2) pp. 129-152.

52. See http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/learningteachingandassessment/learningacrossthecurriculum/themesacrosslearning/globalcitizenship/index.asp

53. Scottish Government, Education Scotland, the Glasgow 2014 Organising Committee, Glasgow City Council and the British Council Scotland

54. To maintain consistency, the NBI core 20 panel countries in 2008, 2009 and 2010 were: Western Europe/North America: U.S., Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden; Central and Eastern Europe: Russia, Poland, Turkey; Asia-Pacific: Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia; Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Middle East/Africa: Egypt, South Africa

55. It is important to keep in mind that the rank order is dependent on which target nations are included and these tend to vary somewhat from one year to the next. For the purpose of comparison over time, the overall score, which can range from 0 to 100, is therefore more informative.

56. http://www.uncrd.or.jp/tr/doc/111114/Introduction.pdf

57. November 2012, May 2013, November 2013, March 2014

58. TNS CAPI Omnibus employs a random location methodology, 1,000 adults across Scotland are interviewed in their own homes.[Add other Omnibus Information if used Mori etc.]

59. See http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/08/17093111/16 for a full list of cultural activites and events or places.

60. DC Research (2012) Economic contribution study: An approach to the economic assessment of arts and creative industries in Scotland http://www.creativescotland.com/sites/default/files/editor/ECS_-_Executive_Summary_June_2012.pdf

61. Rogerson R et al, 2011, Sustainable Communities: Skills and learning for place making , Hertfordshire University Press.

62. The data on the east end of Glasgow presented here relate to the 6 communities in the east end which are part of the GoWell programme. See Annex 6, map 4, for a detailed view of the geography.